Final Four Update

Butler has just defeated Kansas State to advance to the Final Four in Indianapolis.  Between this region, the West, and the Midwest region (Mich St. vs. Tenn), there will be 2 teams seeded 5th or higher that will advance to the Final Four. 

In the late game tonight, the Kentucky Wildcats will play the West Virginia Mountaineers in the East regional final.  Tomorrow, the Duke Blue Devils will play the Baylor Bears in the South regional final, and the Michigan State Spartans will play the Tennessee Volunteers in the Midwest regional final.

Another interesting statistic: With the Kansas State loss today, only 1 conference has more than 1 team remaining in the NCAA tournament.  That conference is the SEC, which certainly isn’t the conference most were expecting to have the most success in this year’s tournament.

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UPDATE:  After West Virginia’s win over Kentucky, the SEC was reduced to 1 teams remaining in the NCAA tournament.  Now 6 conferences have 1 team remaining in the tournament: Big East (West Virginia), Big XII (Baylor), ACC (Duke), SEC (Tennessee), Big 10 (Michigan State), and the Horizon League (Butler).

Why the UConn Women are so Good

Over the past few weeks, many ESPN and other college basketball analysts have been asked, “Why are the UConn women so good?”  The answers have ranged from attributing the success to Geno Auriemma to attributing the success to the team talent and chemistry.  While parts of these answers are correct, there is one big reason why the UConn women dominate college basketball as much as they have, and it hasn’t been mentioned by any analysts to this point.

UConn currently is on a 65 game winning streak, only 5 behind their own record of 70 consecutive wins in the early 2000s.  To win 65 straight games without a single loss, a team needs to be better than the rest of the league.  And not just a little better, the team needs to be leaps and bounds ahead of every other team, so that even on UConn’s worst night, the Lady Huskies would beat another top 10 team.  However, I am not claiming to be the first one to say that UConn is so good because it is better than everyone it plays.  I am arguing how and why they are so much better than everyone else.

I’d like to first establish a parallel between the UCLA teams of the 1970s and the current UConn team.  Each team had multiple consecutive National Championships, UCLA has the longest winning streak in Division 1 Men’s Basketball history (88), and UConn will have the longest D1 Women’s Basketball winning streak before the end of the season.  John Wooden and Geno Auriemma are two of the most respected coaches in their fields.  Finally, and most importantly, the men’s game had not evolved in the 1970s to the point it has now, and the women’s game has yet to evolve.  What this means is that when John Wooden and UCLA were winning consecutive championships, there was not nearly the pool of high school, international, and other talent to draw from that there is today.  The elite players were numbered, and all of these players went to UCLA.  This left every other college basketball team at a severe disadvantage, as no other team was nearly as talented as the Bruins.  However, in today’s men’s game, the high school talent and international talent has exploded across the country.  4 star recruits dip to as low as the top 200 players in the country.  That is enough to fill 20 full teams, and with most teams only giving out about 3 scholarships on average per year, that means that as many as 67 teams can recruit 3 four star or better recruits per year.  This expansion of high school talent has dramatically leveled the playing field in college basketball.

So when people say, “No one will ever win 88 consecutive games like the UCLA Bruins did,” they are most likely right.  But do they know why they are right?  The reason is certainly not that the UCLA team was just better than the teams that play today, in fact, it is quite the contrary.  Many college teams today would absolutely crush the 1970s UCLA team because the talent has increased so dramatically among large parts of the United States.  Therefore, the players are better as a whole than they were in the 1970s, and there are more of these quality players to pick from.  The college basketball playing field has been leveled by this effect, which is the very reason we rarely, if ever, see undefeated season, and rarely see repeat National Champions.

(I realize a big part of the reason we don’t see these accomplishments is also because of players moving to the NBA ahead of schedule.  However, even if these players do stay, other teams are constantly revamping their rosters with talented, All-American high school players.  Teams would rarely, if ever, complete an undefeated full season, and certainly would not win 88 games in a row with the amount of talent that is turned over and obtained each year by a variety of different teams in college basketball.)

Now to apply my above argument to the current UConn women.  The women’s college basketball game now is like the men’s game was in the 70s, if not less evolved.  It is no insult to the women, but the college and high school game is very new to women.  The talent has not expanded across the country, but instead is very concentrated among a few areas and a few athletes.  Therefore, when these athletes have the opportunity to sign with a school, which school are they going to sign with?  Without a doubt, the answer is UConn, and has been for years.  Therefore, UConn every year becomes the UCLA of the 70s.  The team has significantly better players than every other team, and most of its bench players are more talented than the stars of other teams.  When there is such a discrepancy, there is bound to be domination by this team, which is what we have seen for years now out of the UConn women.

By no means am I trying to downplay the accomplishments of the UConn women’s basketball program by saying it is just handed all the best players.  Geno Auriemma still had to build the program up from scratch to be the best in women’s basketball, and to eclipse long-standing Tennessee and Pat Summitt.  I applaud him on that.  He also needed to coach these women to play well together because they were all the best players on their high school teams and didn’t always know how to play as a team.  Therefore, I am not trying to downplay what the UConn women’s basketball program has done.  My point is that AFTER Auriemma did the excellent job of establishing the UConn program as the top program in women’s basketball, the best players started falling into his hands (Again, a great job by him to attract these women by building the program up).  However, Auriemma can’t claim the winning streak as if it were a streak in the men’s game right now.  The women’s game still does not have nearly the depth of players to spread across the country’s programs to level the playing field.  There simply is not enough quality players yet in women’s college basketball so that on any given night, a middle of the road Big East team can beat UConn.  The game simply has not evolved to that point yet, and that isn’t anyone’s fault.

These are the main reasons that the UConn women are as good as they are relative to the rest of women’s college basketball right now.  I felt that I needed to clear up the misconceptions, because many college basketball analysts seem to miss the point.

The Tennessee Coaching Job

BREAKING NEWS ALERT: 

Tennessee has just hired Derek Dooley, head coach at Louisiana Tech, to be the Volunteers next head coach pending a finalized deal.

The Trickle Down Effect of Jim Mora Jr.’s Firing

On Friday, January 8th, 2010, Jim Mora Jr. was fired after only one season as Seattle Seahawks head coach.  After compiling a 5-11 record, Jim Mora Jr. was hastily replaced by USC head coach Pete Carroll.  Pete Carroll had led the USC program to be one of the best in the country, and was in a prime location for recruiting and coaching, among other things.  So one may ask, “Why would Carroll leave a prime college coaching position at USC to coach in the pros at a mediocre Seattle Seahawks organization that just fired its first year head coach, and prior to that did not fire, but had been pressuring long time head coach Mike Holmgren to resign for years?” 

There is no doubt about it, the USC head coaching job is a better job than the Seahawks coaching job.  Carroll did not leave the USC program to upgrade.  Instead, Carroll was escaping the bad situation that he created at USC.  The USC football program is currently under investigation for the Joe McKnight controversy, which concerns running back Joe McKnight’s illegal use of an SUV.  This action is considered an illegal benefit of being an NCAA athlete and is a major NCAA violation.  If the allegations are proven, USC could be forced to vacate wins and relinquish future scholarships, which could have negative impacts on the program many years down the road.  Therefore, Pete Carroll left a top job in the country to be the head coach at Seattle in order to escape possible NCAA sanctions.

How can the NCAA prevent coaches from escaping these situations and leaving all the problems with the university they left?  The most effective solution would be to have the sanctions tied to the coaches even if they leave their program.  In the Pete Carroll case, any sanctions issued by the NCAA would be issued to both USC and Pete Carroll.  Therefore, if Carroll were to return to the NCAA level as a head coach, his sanctions would be applied to that university. 

This solution would do three things.  First, it would limit the amount of NCAA violations that do occur, as head coaches would now be held personally responsible for any and all violations that occur within the program.  Second, this solution would limit the amount of coaches that would leave the university in order to escape the violations incurred, because the coaches would still remain responsible.  Third, it would limit the amount of coaches who have committed violations from returning to the NCAA.  College football programs would be much less likely to hire coaches like Pete Carroll because of the effect the sanctions would have on their football programs.  This trend would make the college football coaching ranks much cleaner and would result in less violations and subsequent sanctions.  This solution is the best way to clean up college football recruiting and the treatment of its players.

After the Seahawks’ hire of Pete Carroll, the USC coaching job was open.  After consulting with a few big name head coaches, including Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio, USC decided to pursue Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin, who served as an assistant at USC from 2001-2006 before becoming the head coach of the Oakland Raiders in 2007.  Lane Kiffin spent one year at Tennessee, and helped to rebuild the program after the departure of long time head coach Philip Fulmer.  He caused controversy in the SEC, as he called out Florida and head coach Urban Meyer multiple times on his recruiting, his lack of maturity, and the annual Florida vs. Tennessee game.  However, Kiffin decided that it would be in his best interests to return to USC, this time as the head coach, as he said that he would have stayed at Tennessee if any job was offered to him other than USC. 

This development was not well received at the University of Tennessee.  There were many students, players, and alumni who were rioting in downtown Knoxville.  Freshman Philadelphia native Matt McCullough has first hand accounts of the mass chaos on the Tennessee campus.  Let me first say that Matt had NO part in the illegal riots.  He noted that students were burning mattresses, football players were burning t-shirts with Lane Kiffin pictured on them, and students gathered around the athletic department building in hopes of keeping Kiffin from leaving campus.  He also noted that the “Rock” was filled with profane message directed at Kiffin that cannot be expressed on this blog.  Tennessee is a place that revolves around its football program, and such a major decision and betrayal by the coach prompted these riots and chaos.

USC is getting a coach in Kiffin that is extremely intense and fiery when it comes to football.  While he may not always be politically correct, Kiffin is a coach who will revitalize interest in a program and get the student body excited about football.  He has shown himself to be a very good recruiter, although it is still to be seen after an investigation whether or not Kiffin did his phenomenal recruiting job within NCAA standards.  USC is getting a coach who knows the program and is genuinely excited about college football.

Where can Tennessee go from here?  It is actually a difficult situation for Tennessee.  Most of the hiring in college football took place about 1 month ago, and many of the top coaching options for Tennessee are already settled for next year.  Assistant Kippy Brown will take over as interim head coach, but Tennessee is trying to reach out to some big name coaches.  Long time Philip Fulmer is a potential candidate to return, and some sources suggest “coach in waiting” at Texas Will Muschamp will be contacted.  However, it appears that Tennessee may have a hard time finding a big name head coach quickly, and this development, along with the potential NCAA sanctions headed Tennessee’s way, may negatively affect the strong recruiting class that Lane Kiffin produced.     

Only 4 days after Jim Mora Jr. was fired in Seattle (which at the onset did not appear to be a big story), has now led to the resignation of Pete Carroll at USC, the resignation of Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, and the head coaching positions of the Seattle Seahawks and USC to be filled by Carroll and Kiffin respectively.  The future of USC is fairly uncertain due to the impending Joe McKnight investigation, and the future of Tennessee is even more uncertain due to potential recruiting violations and the head coaching vacancy.  It will be interesting to see how the future of these two reputable programs will be affected by the major changes, and how Pete Carroll will perform as head coach in Seattle.

Urban Meyer

Yesterday, the college football world was hit with completely unexpected news.  Urban Meyer resigned from his head coaching position at Florida.  When asked about the sudden timing of his decision, he said that there were no immediate life-threatening health concerns, but said “I have ignored my health for years, but recent developments have forced me to reevaluate my priorities of faith and family.”  Also, he said that many of his coaching practices were becoming “self-destructive.”  But it was stressed that none of these health developments were “immediate.”  Meyer said that there is no timetable for his return, but will stay coaching through the Sugar Bowl against Cincinnati.

What should fans think about this sudden resignation?  Even though Meyer said that it wasn’t an immediate health condition, I believe he could very likely have a impacting health issue facing him.  First, he made this declaration before the bowl game January 1st, and only 1 week before the game.  If it wasn’t an immediate health concern, he could have waited a week to make such a startling and probably unnerving declaration to his players.  To give an example, when coaches are considering taking another job, they wait and bide their time, avoiding questions from the media and players until it is almost obvious that they are taking the job.  Meyer, if the problem wasn’t immediate and health threatening, would have done the same.  Meyer would have waited until after the Sugar Bowl to tell his players and the media, in order that Florida plays its best and does not worry about its coach’s resignation.  Since he did feel the need to make the statement of his resignation 1 week before the game, it is probable that there is something more that he and the Florida athletic department are not saying. 

Also, to those that argue that the decision was stated now because of the impact on recruiting, I just have one question.  Would Florida have any trouble finding a coach?  It is arguably the most desirable coaching job in the country, and many big name coaches would drop everything to coach at Florida.  In addition, since Meyer is coaching through the Sugar Bowl, Florida can not hire a coach until after the Sugar Bowl anyway.  Therefore, the timing actually has a negative impact on Florida, as recruits now have at least 1-2 weeks without knowing who their coach is, meaning they have more of a reason to choose a different school.  There would be no reason for Meyer to make this decision now unless it was due to an extremely threatening health concern.

In addition, this decision had to be fairly recent and unexpected, and could not have been a methodical decision like it was made out to be.  Former Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong left Florida for the head coaching job at Louisville just two weeks earlier.  However, Strong would have been a top choice to replace Meyer if he were to resign.  In fact, it has been reported that Florida is now trying to bring Strong back to Florida to become the head coach.  So why would Strong have gone to Louisville if Urban Meyer’s health issues were known, and not immediate and unexpected?  Why would Strong leave if Meyer’s decision was a “methodical” one?  The development with Charlie Strong gives convincing evidence that Urban Meyer and Florida are not delving all the details about Meyer’s resignation, and that the decision was prompted by a recent health development.

What would the recent and threatening health developments be?  While I have no direct knowledge of Urban Meyer’s health, I do know that Meyer has suffered from persistent headaches caused by an arachnoid cyst that becomes inflamed by stress, rage and excitement (Sports Illustrated).  However, in the past these headaches have never been enough for him to miss any games or cut back on coaching.  His life has never been threatened by these headaches.  Therefore, it is difficult to believe that these headaches were the sole reason that he is leaving.  There almost has to be something more from this to make sense.  He is the most beloved and renowned coach currently in college football and makes $4m per year.  There needs to be a hidden reason for his sudden and untimely departure.

The future for Florida and the rest of college football will be impacted greatly by Meyer’s sudden departure.  How will the power within the SEC be shifted.  Will Alabama become the Florida of the last 5 years with no true competitors?  Will Lane Kiffin bring Tennessee to the top of the SEC by landing recruits that may have otherwise gone to Florida?  Will coaches like Bobby Petrino have more opportunities to grow their program within the SEC without the Florida cloud drafting over the rest of the SEC?  Or will a coach like Dan Mullen or Charlie Strong return to Florida, and with their familiarity with the Florida program return it to the top of college football without any rebuilding years?  I can not wait to see how the SEC specifically is affected in the coming years by this change, because it provides opportunities for so many teams to rise up and reestablish themselves within the conference.

The other big question is about the replacement.  Florida has the option of either bringing back Dan Mullen, former offensive coordinator, or Charlie Strong, former defensive coordinator.  Both men know the Florida system very well and would most likely provide a seamless transition into next season.  The other option is to go after a big name head coach, regardless of affiliation with the university.  In this case Florida could attempt to bring in Chris Peterson of Boise State, Bob Stoops of Oklahoma, or even Pete Carroll of USC.  The next few months at Florida will redefine the balance of power within the SEC and within college football.