Podcast: BCS and National Championship Preview

Title: BCS and National Championship Preview

A full, in-depth look at the scenarios that can affect the National Championship picture in college football.  I’ll clarify the chaos that exists in the BCS and college football right now.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-17T16_03_28-08_00

College Football Week 10 Preview

Saturday will be one of the most intense, important, and influential days of this year’s college football season.  Two top 10 matchups, multiple other ranked matchups, and a milestone-seeking game for Joe Paterno and Penn State highlights the weekend.

The biggest matchup of the weekend will take place at Baton Rouge this weekend.  Alabama will travel to LSU for a top 10 matchup that will likely propel the winner to be the top ranked 1 loss team.  LSU is arguably the most underrated team in college football.  Analysts constantly knock their offensive capabilities and their coaching.  However, the Tigers are 7-1 in the toughest conference in football, have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and North Carolina, have only lost to #1 Auburn on the road by 7 points.  Alabama remains the top ranked 1 loss team, and looks to further improve their already impressive resume by beating #10 LSU.

MY PREDICTION:  Gut feeling here, and maybe a pick from the heart, but no one is giving LSU a chance, and that is wrong.  Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will do just enough on offense, and the LSU defense will hold strong as it has all year.  Playing in Baton Rouge doesn’t hurt, either.          LSU 24—Alabama 20

Two top 5 teams and the two leaders in the Mountain West will play in Salt Lake City, as TCU travels to play Utah.  TCU recently jumped Boise State in the BCS rankings to climb to 3rd, and Utah jumped 3 spots to 5th last week for no apparent reason after skating by Air Force.  Utah is the most overrated team in college football.  Their notable wins are victories over Pitt (by 3 in overtime at home), Air Force by 5 (TCU beat Air Force 38-7), and a blowout win against Iowa State.  Utah has shown nothing to impress me this season, which is why I have the Utes ranked at #21.  That’s right, 16 spots behind the BCS.

MY PREDICTION:  Utah is exposed at home by a solid TCU team. TCU 34—Utah 20

In Happy Valley, Joe Paterno seeks his 400th victory against Northwestern.  Joe’s 399 wins leads all coaches who have ever coached at the FBS level.  Number 2 all-time, Bobby Bowden, trails him by 22 wins, a full 2 or more seasons of work.  Paterno will cement his resume as the best college football coach of all time with the victory, if he has not done so already.  Paterno will decide on Saturday whether to start sophomore Matt McGloin, who led the Nittany Lions to victory with an impressive performance against Michigan, or Rob Bolden, the freshman who started the season for the Lions and suffered a concussion in the Minnesota game 2 weeks ago.  To me, McGloin gives the Lions the best chance to win, and has been effective in limiting his mistakes in the 2 games he has played.

MY PREDICTION:  No matter the starting quarterback, Penn State will find a way to win on Saturday.  The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium will be electric, the running game will continue to improve, and the defense will play an inspired effort to give JoePa his 400th win and a slight upset against upstart, 6-2 Northwestern.  Penn State 27— Northwestern 23

Other Notable Games: (And my Predictions)

#1 Oregon (42)—Washington (17)

#2 Auburn (59)—Chattanooga (3)

#4 Boise State (42)—Hawaii (20)

#12 Stanford (31)–#15 Arizona (27)

#17 Oklahoma State (31)—#21 Baylor (28)

#18 Arkansas (38)—#19 South Carolina (24)

Illinois (30)—Michigan (28)

Miami (35)—Maryland (24)

Texas (19)—Kansas State (17)

The Mountain West?

The Mountain West has 5 teams playing in bowl games this season:  Wyoming, BYU, Utah, Air Force, and TCU.  The Mountain West has been the conference that many people think is simply the best mid-major conference, but not competitive on the national scale.  TCU’s undefeated record has been called out by many college football fans on account of little or no competition.  However, before someone passes judgement on the talent of the Mountain West, one must look at the success the conference in the recent bowl games.  Wyoming played the first bowl game of the season and shockingly defeated Fresno State, who was highly favored in the game.  Then BYU crushed Oregon State 44-20.  Finally, last night, Utah defeated Cal, 37-27 in a virtual home game for Cal at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium.

Air Force will play Houston December 31st at 12 PM.  TCU will close the Mountain West bowl season January 4th against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.  If the Mountain West wins at least one of its last two games, it would be time to consider the possibility that the Mountain West in better than at least one of the major conferences.  The Mountain West has arguably 3 upsets already, and Air Force looks to be an underdog against Houston.  TCU will be the lone Mountain West team that is favored in its bowl game, but that is only because the BCS tried to save itself by pairing the two non-BCS conference teams against each other, TCU and Boise State.  If TCU played any other team in one of the BCS bowls, the Horned Frogs would be underdogs.  Therefore, one more bowl win by the Mountain West would put the conference at 4-1 in the bowl season with at least three upsets.  With this postseason resume, the Mountain West would deserve consideration as one of the top 6 conferences in the country. 

Compare the Mountain West with the Pac-10, which is currently 0-2 in the bowl season with two losses to Mountain West teams.  Cal lost to Utah by 10, and Oregon State lost to BYU by 24.  As mentioned, both Mountain West winners were underdogs in the games, but these teams beat two Pac-10 opponents by a combined 34 points.  There is certainly something to be said for that.  The Pac-10 was extremely down this year, as USC finished 5th in conference.  The Pac-10 struggled mightily as a conference on defense this year, and that weakness was exposed by Utah and BYU. 

The Pac-10 has 5 remaining bowl games.  USC will play Boston College, UCLA will play Temple, Stanford will play Oklahoma, Arizona will play Nebraska, and Oregon will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl Game.  The Pac-10 would be doing well if it went 3-2 in these five games, and it is probable that the conference will go under .500 for its remaining games.  USC and Boston College is a toss up, but I think USC will win that game.  UCLA v. Temple will be a good game, but I think Temple will win that game.  Stanford has no defense, and that will hurt the Cardinal against Oklahoma.  Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the country, and Arizona will have trouble moving the ball against the best defense it has seen this year.  Oregon has not played a defense as strong as Ohio State this year, but when Oregon played Boise State, granted it was early in the season, it Duck offense could not move the ball well against the Bronco defense. 

So even if the conference went 3-2 in its remaining games, which would be arguably the best case scenario, that would only put the Pac-10 at 3-4 for the bowl season.  That would mean that the Pac-10 would have less wins in 7 games than the Mountain West does in 5.  Couple that with the fact that the Mountain West gave the Pac-10 2 of its losses, the games in which both Mountain West teams were underdogs, and one must consider the possibility that the Mountain West is a better football conference than the Pac-10.