Moss to the Vikings

BREAKING NEWS:  Randy Moss has just been traded to the Minnesota Vikings.  After rumors swirled in the offseason and early this season over a contract dispute, and Moss said in a postgame press conference that he might not be in New England next season, the move was finally made.  The Patriots receive a 2011 3rd round draft pick for the wide receiver.  Moss returns to the team with whom he spent the first 7 seasons of his career.  Moss has 9 receptions for 139 yards this season.

Podcast: 2010 NFL Predictions (NFC)

Title: 2010 NFL Predictions (NFC)

In this podcast Chris Pierangeli and I make our predictions for the NFC, including division winners, wild card winners, and the Super Bowl Champion.

Download Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-09-09T17_44_19-07_00

Conference Championship Weekend Recap

In the AFC Championship, the New York Jets played the Indianapolis Colts, and were fighting for a chance to go to the Super Bowl.  The Jets started quickly in the game, forcing the Colts to stall on their first series and to punt.  The Jets then moved the ball down the field to allow for a 44 yard field goal that would take an early lead, but Jay Feely missed the field goal wide right.

The game was scoreless through the 1st quarter.  That would change quickly.  In the first 2 plays from scrimmage of the 2nd quarter, Matt Stover kicked a 25 yard field goal to give the Colts a 3-0 lead, and Braylon Edwards subsequently caught a 80 yard touchdown pass to put the Jets up 7-3.  After a Colts field goal on the next drive, the Jets employed some trickery by setting up in the wildcat formation with Brad Smith and then having him pass to Jericho Cotchery for a 45 yard gain and a huge momentum swing.  The Jets then finished the drive with a touchdown to increase the lead to 14-6.  After a Joseph Addai fumble on the next drive, the Jets settled for a field goal to take a 17-6 lead.  At this point all the momentum was with the Jets, and the Colts were having trouble finishing their drives.  In a typical Peyton Manning drive, the Colts mounted a 4 play 80 yard drive to end their half on offense and to get themselves right back into the game.  The halftime score was 17-13 Jets.

In the 2nd half, the Jets looked to retain and regain any momentum from the first half.  After receiving the ball to begin the 2nd half, the Jets moved 39 yards down the field to set up Jay Feely with a 52 yard field goal, which he missed brutally wide right. 

After the missed field goal, the Colts prompted embarked upon an 8 play, 57 yard drive to take a 20-17 lead.  The Colts would never surrender this lead.  The Colts would add a 4th quarter field goal and a late field goal, and would win the game 30-17.

The Colts were led by Peyton Manning, as always, but he had some unlikely targets to which he threw.  His prominent targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, combined for only 9 catches and 90 yards, whereas lesser known receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie combined for 18 catches and 274 yards.  The two receivers were two main pieces of the Colts comeback and subsequent win over the Jets. 

Now to address the Jets.  The Jets played extremely hard in this game and throughout the playoffs, and became the biggest upset story of the playoffs.  The defense did not play its best, but the team was still in the game until kicker Jay Feely essentially took his team out of the game with 2 missed field goals.  While it is true that Jay Feely may not have the strongest leg in the league, he missed two makeable field goals this game wide right, and quite possibly cost the Jets a trip to the Super Bowl.  If he made the two field goals that he missed,the Jets would have had a 23-13 lead in the 3rd quarter, and would have had much more momentum.  However, this is only one of many occasions in the 2009 playoffs where kickers took their teams out of the game.  Shane Graham missed 2 field goals against the Jets in Wild Card Weekend, Nate Kaeding missed 3 in the Divisional Round against the Jets, Neil Rackers almost cost the Cardinals a win in Wild Card weekend with a brutal wide left at the end of regulation against the Packers, and finally Jay Feely allowed the Colts to stay in the game today due to his 2 missed field goals.  The inadequancy of kickers in big situations is something that should be followed in the coming years to see if a trend is beginning in the NFL.

The Jets shortcomings should not take any credit from the Colts, who will play in Maimi in two weeks.  Peyton Manning will return to the location where he played his first Super Bowl and defeated the Bears.

In the NFC Championship, the New Orleans Saints hosted the Minnesota Vikings.  This game was expected to be a high scoring, offense based game, and at times the offenses looked unstoppable.  Each team scored touchdowns in 2 of their first 3 possessions, but then the defenses took over and the rest of the half remained scoreless.  In the 3rd quarter, both offenses scored touchdowns on their first possessions, and the defenses again took control and kept the rest of the 3rd quarter scoreless.  In the 4th, both teams scored 1 touchdown, and the game went to overtime tied 28-28.  To this point the Vikings had turned the ball over 5 times, including a Brett Favre interception in the final minute when the Vikings were on the edge of field goal range.

In overtime, the Saints won the toss and elected to receive.  After a few booth reviews, once over the spot of the ball and once over whether or not a catch was made, the Saints faced a 4th and 1 inside the Vikings’ 45 yard line.  In a gutsy move, head coach Sean Payton decided to hand the ball to Pierre Thomas who leapt for a 1st down.  After a pass interference call, the Saints were placed in field goal position, and after a few plays, Garrett Hartley kicked a 40 yard field straight down the middle (a nice change of pace from other kickers this postseason) to give the Saints the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance.

A key player for the Saints was Drew Brees, who threw for 197 yards and, more importantly, 3 touchdowns.  Brees spread the ball among 8 receivers, with the leading receiver, Devery Henderson, only catching 4 balls for 39 yards.  In addition, running back Pierre Thomas had 14 rushes for 61 yards and 1 touchdown against the stout Vikings run defense.

For the Vikings, a big part of the loss came from the 5 team turnovers.  The team fumbled 6 times and lost the ball 3 times from these fumbles, with running back Adrain Peterson fumbling 2 times.  In addition, Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, including 1 in the final minute with the Vikings on the verge of field goal range.  These turnovers, most of them very untimely in nature, in essence cost the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl.

Again, the turnovers made by the Vikings should not take credit from the Saints.  The Saints were the best team all year in the NFC, and will meet the Colts, who were the best in the AFC this year, in Super Bowl XLIV.  The game will be played 2 weeks from now in Miami’s Landshark Stadium, which in the home of the Dolphins, Miami Hurricanes, and the Orange Bowl.

Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Both NFL Conference Championship Games will be played on Sunday, January 24th.  In the AFC Championship, the upstart, underdog New York Jets will travel to Indianapolis to play the top ranked Colts.  This game is ripe with storylines.  First, the Colts and Jets played in Week 16.  The Colts were 14-0 and had a chance to have an undefeated season with a win over the Jets and then Buffalo.  However, the Colts decided to rest the starters to prepare for the postseason and avoid injury.  In addition, the New York Jets were, at the time, on the edge of the playoff race.  The Jets needed to win their final 2 games in order to make the playoffs.  The Colts had a 15-10 lead in the 3rd quarter before removing the starters, and the Jets appeared to be on the brink of playoff elimination.  However, after inserting backup quarterback Curtis Painter into the game, the Colts produced under 30 passing yards for the remainder of the game and gave away the game with a 29-15 loss.  Therefore, in this game the Colts gave away the perfect season and gave the Jets a chance to make the playoffs.  How ironic it is that these same Jets have a chance to eliminate the Colts this Sunday.  If the Colts do lose this game, the team will be mocked for its decision to rest the starters and thereby enabling the Jets to make the playoffs.  What a story that would be for these same Jets to eliminate the Colts.

Another exciting storyline for the game is Rex Ryan’s past in Baltimore.  Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens, known for its stout defenses, before he was hired as the Jets head coach.  The Ravens have played the Colts multiple times over the years, including a game in the 2006 AFC Divisional Round.  The Ravens had a bye and were 13-3 in the regular season, and faced the 3^rd seeded Colts.  This game was a defensive struggle that did not produce a touchdown for either team, and the Colts defeated the home Ravens 15-6.  This year, the Rex Ryan defense bears many similarities to the Raven defense, and the Colt offense remains relatively the same as 2006.  In addition, the current Jet and Raven offense of 2006 bear many of the same similarities, including an emphasis on the running game.  It will be interesting to see if this game shows any resemblance to the 2006 AFC Divisional Game.

Finally, this game is a rematch of Super Bowl III.  The Jets and Colts met in Super Bowl III, and the Colts were heavily favored in the game.  However, Joe Namath had confidence in the underrated Jets, and was not afraid to say it.  Namath guaranteed a Jets win, which sounded ridiculous to some.  However, in one of the greatest upsets of all time, Namath and the Jets beat the Colts 16-7 to win Super Bowl III.  This AFC Championship pairs the same teams, and there was somewhat of a guarantee issued by the Jets.  Coach Rex Ryan produced an itinerary for his team at the beginning of the playoffs, which concluded with a Super Bowl win and a parade in New York.  Now the team has marketed championship gear even before the game.  Therefore, the Jets will look to win another Namath-style guarantee game against the now-Indianapolis Colts, moved from Baltimore in 1984.

My prediction:  The Jets story has been great, and Rex Ryan has done a great job with the team.  The strong running game and defense has fueled the team, but the dream run will end this Sunday.  Peyton and the Colts will be too much for the Jets to handle. 

Colts 24—Jets 13

In the NFC Championship Game, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to New Orleans to play the Saints.  This game does not have nearly the amount of storylines that the Jets Colts game does, but it has as much or more anticipation.  The Saints and Vikings have been the best and second best teams in the NFC all year.  This game features the greatest statistical quarterback of all time, Brett Favre, and arguably the quarterback with the best passing numbers in the NFL this year, Drew Brees.  Both offenses have shown the ability to score at will this year, but both defenses have been inconsistent at times.  The Vikings defense; however, has proven itself to be more talented and formidable than the Saints defense.  The key in this game will be which defense will be able to contain the opposing offense best. 

My prediction:  The Saints offense will prove to be unstoppable again, even against the Vikings defense and talented pass rush, and the Saints defense will hold the Vikings offense just enough to go to the Super Bowl.

Saints 35—Vikings 23

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

After wins by the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, and Baltimore Ravens in Wild Card weekend, the Divisional Round will provide four exciting games.

The New Orleans Saints (1 NFC) will play the Arizona Cardinals (4 NFC).

This game is a game with many complex subplots.  The Cardinals defense has struggled at times, and the New Orleans offense was the best offense in the league for a majority of the season (although not recently).  In addition, the New Orleans defense has struggled this season, and the Cardinals offense put up 51 (45 offensive) points against the Packers, a top defense in the NFL.  This game will come down to which defense can contain the other team’s explosive offense.

My prediction:  The Saints offense will return to form and will outperform the Cardinals offense in a shootout. 

Saints 45–Cardinals 38

The other NFC Divisional Round game will be the Minnesota Vikings (2 NFC) against the Dallas Cowboys (3 NFC).

This game is also very difficult to pick because of how the teams have played down the stretch.  The Cowboys have looked like the hottest team recently, both on offense and defense.  The Vikings have looked good for the majority of the season, struggled a bit down the stretch, but then crushed the Giants in Week 17 to put a positive end to the regular season going into the bye week.  The key to this game will be whether the Cowboy defense can continue its almost unfathomable stretch of defense against dynamic offenses.

My prediction:  The Cowboys defense will slow down the Viking offense, and the Cowboy offense will continue to control the ball and time of possession (TOP), and will move on to the NFC Championship Game.

Cowb0ys 27—Vikings 14

The AFC matchups pair two very different teams in terms of personnel and philosophy.

The Indianapolis Colts (1 AFC) will face the Baltimore Ravens (6 AFC).

This game pairs the running minded Ravens and the passing minded Colts with MVP Peyton Manning at quarterback.  The game will come down to whether or not the Raven defense can keep the Colt offense in check, and whether the Ravens offense can keep the ball out of Mannings hands.  Another key will be the impact the resting of starters for 2 consecutive weeks will have on the Colts.

My prediction:  The Colts will not play poorly, but will not be crisp early in the game, and the Ravens will take advantage.  The Colts offense will be limited in its possessions by both the Ravens defense and its offense reliance on running the ball and time of possession (TOP).  

Ravens 24—Colts 20

Finally, the San Diego Chargers (2 AFC) will play the upstart New York Jets (5 AFC).  This game will be extremely interesting, as the Jet defense has looked stellar, while the running game has remained the best the league has to offer, led by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.  The Chargers have been arguably the best team in the league the last 2-3 months.  Therefore, this game will pair two very talented teams who are playing very well right now.  The key to this game will be whether the Jets defense can force turnovers on the explosive Chargers offense.

My prediction:  The game will be closer than expected, but the Chargers offense will take control late in the game.

Chargers 31—Jets 21

The NFL Divisional Playoff Matchups

The NFL regular season has concluded and the playoffs will begin next week.  This year was unique for many reasons.  First, two teams (Saints and Colts) started at least 13-0, and each of the teams lost their final 2 games (the Saints lost their final 3).  In addition, the first round of the playoffs will feature 3 rematches of Week 17.  Finally, Titans running back Chris Johnson became the sixth running back in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000 yard mark in a season.  But what hasn’t changed is that once the calendar turns to the New Year, it is playoff time. 

The AFC playoff picture looks as such:

The Colts (1) and Chargers (2) will receive byes in the first round.

The Ravens (6) will travel to Foxboro to face the Patriots (3), Sunday at 1PM on CBS.

This game will come down to whether or not the depleted New England offense, with Wes Welker out for the season and Tom Brady dinged up, can still move the ball effectively against the always stout Baltimore defense.  In addition, can Joe Flacco be composed well enough in only his second year to take his team deep into the playoffs again.  I think that the Raven running game will control the tempo of the game, and the New England offense will not be able to recover from its best receiver’s injury.

My prediction: Baltimore wins 20-10.

The Bengals (5) will host the Jets (4) on Saturday at 4:30 on CBS.

In a rematch of last week’s finale, the Bengals will look to get Chad Ochocinco back healthy.  The key matchup will be Jets CB Darrelle Revis, the best corner in the league, against Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals’ top receiver.  In addition, it will be a battle of two strong running games, led by Thomas Jones for the Jets and Cedric Benson for the Bengals, with veteran Larry Johnson in the backup role.

My prediction:  The Bengals run defense has allowed the team to beat both Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice this year, and will remain stout in this game.  Thomas Jones will not have the effect he needs to for the Jets to win the game.

My prediction:  Cincinnati 24–New York 20

The NFC Playoff Picture looks like this:

The New Orleans Saints (1) and the Minnesota Vikings (2) receive byes in the first round.

The Philadelphia Eagles (6) will travel back to Dallas to play the Cowboys (3) at 8 PM on Saturday on NBC.  The Eagles will look to turn the tide after getting hammered by the Cowboys this past week 24-0.  The game quite simply will come down to whether or not the Eagles can stop the Cowboys offense and keep themselves in the game. 

My prediction:  The Eagles will play better than they did last week, but not quite well enough to beat the Cowboys.  Cowboys 31–Eagles 20.

The final game of the weekend is the Green Bay Packers (5) traveling to Arizona to play the Cardinals (4) at 4:40 on Sunday on FOX. 

Once again, this game is a rematch of the final week of the season.  The Packers crushed the Cardinals, who rested many starters.  Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams in football, and the game will come down to whether the Green Bay offensive line can continue to protect Aaron Rodgers, as the o-line has been the achillies heel of the Packers at points this year. 

My prediction:  The Packers handle the Cardinals 31-13.