College Football Week 10 Preview

Saturday will be one of the most intense, important, and influential days of this year’s college football season.  Two top 10 matchups, multiple other ranked matchups, and a milestone-seeking game for Joe Paterno and Penn State highlights the weekend.

The biggest matchup of the weekend will take place at Baton Rouge this weekend.  Alabama will travel to LSU for a top 10 matchup that will likely propel the winner to be the top ranked 1 loss team.  LSU is arguably the most underrated team in college football.  Analysts constantly knock their offensive capabilities and their coaching.  However, the Tigers are 7-1 in the toughest conference in football, have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and North Carolina, have only lost to #1 Auburn on the road by 7 points.  Alabama remains the top ranked 1 loss team, and looks to further improve their already impressive resume by beating #10 LSU.

MY PREDICTION:  Gut feeling here, and maybe a pick from the heart, but no one is giving LSU a chance, and that is wrong.  Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will do just enough on offense, and the LSU defense will hold strong as it has all year.  Playing in Baton Rouge doesn’t hurt, either.          LSU 24—Alabama 20

Two top 5 teams and the two leaders in the Mountain West will play in Salt Lake City, as TCU travels to play Utah.  TCU recently jumped Boise State in the BCS rankings to climb to 3rd, and Utah jumped 3 spots to 5th last week for no apparent reason after skating by Air Force.  Utah is the most overrated team in college football.  Their notable wins are victories over Pitt (by 3 in overtime at home), Air Force by 5 (TCU beat Air Force 38-7), and a blowout win against Iowa State.  Utah has shown nothing to impress me this season, which is why I have the Utes ranked at #21.  That’s right, 16 spots behind the BCS.

MY PREDICTION:  Utah is exposed at home by a solid TCU team. TCU 34—Utah 20

In Happy Valley, Joe Paterno seeks his 400th victory against Northwestern.  Joe’s 399 wins leads all coaches who have ever coached at the FBS level.  Number 2 all-time, Bobby Bowden, trails him by 22 wins, a full 2 or more seasons of work.  Paterno will cement his resume as the best college football coach of all time with the victory, if he has not done so already.  Paterno will decide on Saturday whether to start sophomore Matt McGloin, who led the Nittany Lions to victory with an impressive performance against Michigan, or Rob Bolden, the freshman who started the season for the Lions and suffered a concussion in the Minnesota game 2 weeks ago.  To me, McGloin gives the Lions the best chance to win, and has been effective in limiting his mistakes in the 2 games he has played.

MY PREDICTION:  No matter the starting quarterback, Penn State will find a way to win on Saturday.  The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium will be electric, the running game will continue to improve, and the defense will play an inspired effort to give JoePa his 400th win and a slight upset against upstart, 6-2 Northwestern.  Penn State 27— Northwestern 23

Other Notable Games: (And my Predictions)

#1 Oregon (42)—Washington (17)

#2 Auburn (59)—Chattanooga (3)

#4 Boise State (42)—Hawaii (20)

#12 Stanford (31)–#15 Arizona (27)

#17 Oklahoma State (31)—#21 Baylor (28)

#18 Arkansas (38)—#19 South Carolina (24)

Illinois (30)—Michigan (28)

Miami (35)—Maryland (24)

Texas (19)—Kansas State (17)

First Team All American Selections

As posted on the blog 2 days ago, the First Team All American Selections included Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Evan Turner (Ohio State), Scottie Reynolds (Villanova), John Wall (Kentucky), and DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky).

Second Team All Americans were James Anderson (Oklahoma State), Sherron Collins (Kansas), Jon Scheyer (Duke), Greivis Vasquez (Maryland), and Da’Sean Butler (West Virginia).

My thoughts on the selections?  On the whole I thought the AP did a good job in the selections.  Scottie Reynolds and Wes Johnson were arguably the 2 most productive players in the Big East, although Greg Monroe also had a great year.  Evan Turner was the National Player of the Year.  John Wall was a freshman sensation that brought energy back to Lexington and was, at times, the most explosive player in college basketball.  DeMarcus Cousins was an inside force that helped Kentucky to advance to the top spot in the country.

However, if the AP made a mistake, it was the selection of DeMarcus Cousins.  Cousins averaged 15.1 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game, which are very impressive statistics.  However, he only played 23.5 minutes per game, or just over half a game per night.  While the production is there, I find it difficult to name someone an All American who wasn’t consistently on the floor.  Every other first team All American selection averaged over 30 minutes per game.  Cousins’ consistent foul trouble and his unsportsmanlike antics at times limited his play and effectiveness.  Therefore, Cousins was a very talented, productive player, but he was not on the floor long enough to be deserving of an All American honor.

So who should have replaced Cousins?  There are several good candidates on the second team.  James Anderson averaged 22.3 points per game with 5.8 rebounds per game.  He would be the primary suitor to replace Cousins, because of both his stats and what he meant to the Cowboys.  He was by far the best scorer on the team and almost singlehandedly led the team to the NCAA tournament.  He was double covered every night and still put up impressive, consistent statistics in the biggest moments, including 27 points and 30 points in the season defining wins over Kansas and Kansas State, respectively. 

Another candidate for that spot is Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez.  He averaged 19.6 points per game and 6.3 assists per game, and most notably led the Terps with 20 points in an emotional win over Duke on Senior Night.  Greivis’ statistics and importance to the team should have been impressive enough to jump Cousins in the voting. 

When comparing these two very deserving second teamers, James Anderson’s season was more impressive than Greivis’ season.  His numbers and his leadership were unbelievably impressive, and he led the Cowboys to the NCAA tournament  because of his ability and poise.  Although both DeMarcus Cousins and Greivis Vasquez had very impressive seasons, Anderson was more deserving of the First Team All American honor than either Cousins or Second Team All American teammate Vasquez.

College Basketball All-America Team

First Team All American:

Wesley Johnson (Syracuse)

John Wall (Kentucky)

DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky)

Scottie Reynolds (Villanova)

Evan Turner (Ohio State)

Second Team All American:

James Anderson (Oklahoma State)

Sherron Collins (Kansas)

Greivis Vasquez (Maryland)

Jon Scheyer (Duke)

Da’Sean Butler (West Virginia)

Stay tuned tomorrow for my analysis of the picks for the All America Team.

ACC Power Rankings

In what will be my final power rankings entry of the college basketball season, I will analyze the Atlantic Coast Conference, which has been slightly down this season.  This conference is either the 3rd or 4th best conference in college basketball, behind the Big East, Big XII, and potentially the Big 10.  Here are my ACC power rankings:

1. Duke- Maryland fans may have a problem with this, but the fact is that Duke has had a better season as a whole and is a better team than Maryland.  Yes, Maryland beat Duke tonight, but Duke has a better record, and Duke beat Maryland at Cameron Indoor by 21 points.  Settle down, Maryland fans, it was nice to send Greivis off with a win on Senior Night, but it doesn’t mean you are better than Duke.  Duke is led by Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, and has benefited greatly from the emergence of Brian Zoubek as a quality big man this season.  The only question for Duke is, as always, how the Blue Devils will fare in the NCAA tournament, where one poor shooting day against a good defense can end their season.  Duke’s style of play in recent years especially has not been conducive to winning in the NCAA tournament.  In recent years, Duke has shown itself to not be as talented as their seeding would indicate.  This year, the Blue Devils will face the same challenge, as they will most likely earn a 2 seed and will face a talented, upset hungry 7 or 10 seed in the 2nd round.  It will be interesting to see if Duke is really as good as everyone believes, and if the team is able to advance far into the tournament.  Personally, I would be surprised if Duke made the Elite 8.

2. Maryland- The Terps have really started to play well recently, as the team has gone 13-2 in the past 1.5 months.  The team has ascended into the rankings very quickly (21st in my Top 25), and with a win over Duke tonight will rise further into the Top 25.  Greivis Vasquez leads the team with 19.5 points, and as a senior, he is the emotional leader of the team.  Maryland has the ability to go deep into the tournament, as Vasquez, along with senior forward Landon Milbourne and freshman forward Jordan Williams, highlight an athletic, explosive, high powered attack that can be successful in March.  Maryland could be an Elite 8 team if it played well in the tournament.

3. Clemson- At this point it gets extremely difficult.  Any one of these teams could occupy the 3rd spot: Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, or even Georgia Tech.  I will select Clemson because they have quality wins over Butler and Maryland, which is slightly more impressive than the other teams contending for the third spot.  Clemson, as well as the other teams listed, is a bubble team, and will not be a threat to go deep into the NCAA tournament.

4.  Florida State- Equally difficult decision, but I picked Florida State for the 4th spot because the Noles beat Virginia Tech.  FSU doesn’t have a ton of quality wins, but I determined that the team’s resume was better than Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, and was almost equivalent to Virginia Tech.  Therefore, with the win by Florida State over Virginia Tech, Florida State earns the 4 spot.  Florida State, with a win over Wake Forest tonight, greatly enhanced its NCAA tournament resume.  Florida State is led by its balanced attack, as 6 players are averaging over 7 points per game, and no one averages over 12 points per game.  The potential problem come tournament time is the lack of one explosive scorer.  Florida State has the capacity to win a game in the NCAA tournament, but I do not expect the Noles to make the Sweet 16.

5. Virginia Tech- The Hokies are a bubble team whose record has been inflated all year by an incredibly weak non-conference schedule, and the traditional ACC power was not there to bolster the resume in conference play.  Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen are 2 of the best players in the ACC and have led the Hokies all year.  Virginia Tech is a bubble team that still needs to win a few games before it can secure a spot in the NCAA tournament, and could be a potential sleeper team.

6. Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons would have been much higher in the power rankings 3 weeks ago, but during that span Wake has lost 4 consecutive games.  This has put the Deacs squarely on the bubble in the final week of the regular season.  Ish Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu highlight a very talented team that hasn’t played to its potential thus far.  I do not see the Deacs playing consistently enough to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

7. Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets started off the season very well, and were ranked even into conference play, but have dropped significantly over the past 3 months.  Georgia Tech has posted an 8-8 record since January 5th.  Tech is a fringe bubble team because of its mediocre record and the way it has played in the 2nd half of the season, and the team would be lucky to make the NCAA tournament.  Georgia Tech is highlighted by the electrifying play of stud freshman Derrick Favors, who will most likely enter the NBA Draft after the season.

8. Virginia

9. North Carolina

10. Miami

11. Boston College

12. Miami