Podcast: BCS and National Championship Preview

Title: BCS and National Championship Preview

A full, in-depth look at the scenarios that can affect the National Championship picture in college football.  I’ll clarify the chaos that exists in the BCS and college football right now.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-17T16_03_28-08_00

Hold Your Horses

Last night, Boise State defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies 33-30 at FedEx Field in Washington D.C.  The game had huge implications for the National Championship picture, as Boise State has only 1 more game that should realistically give the Broncos any trouble.  In 2 weeks, Oregon State will travel to the Smurf Turf to face Boise State in what will be Boise’s last BCS school matchup until potentially the bowl game.  Most assume this game to be a victory for Boise, who will face an Oregon State team who will most likely be unranked after this weekend’s loss to TCU.

Therefore, I will write this blog under the assumption that Boise State will go undefeated in the regular season.  Should the Broncos earn a spot in the BCS National Championship Game if they do so?  Part of me feels bad saying this, but absolutely not.  The Broncos will not have done nearly enough to put together a compelling resume that would top a 1 loss or even a 2 loss SEC, Big XII, or Big Ten team.

The big issue for me is about strength of schedule.  It is a exaggerated example, but a middle of the road college football team playing the best high school teams would still hammer the competition and post an undefeated record.  While the WAC isn’t filled with high school teams, it is one of the lesser conferences in the country, and the fact that Boise State does (should) have 8 easy games on the schedule each year makes it difficult for me to give the team credit as a National Championship contender.

For the purposes of this post I will assume that Ohio State loses 1 game this season and still wins the Big Ten.  I will also assume that Alabama loses one game and still wins the SEC.  Finally, I will assume that Boise State will be the lone undefeated school this season.  Which of those teams should go to the National Championship? I would immediately eliminate Boise State.  With an undefeated season, Boise State will have 2 solid wins: Virginia Tech and Oregon State, with the Virginia Tech game considered the only quality win.  Ohio State, on the other hand (judging by the schedule), with 1 loss, would have 4-5 quality wins, and even more solid wins.  Alabama would have 6 quality wins and 9 solid wins even with one loss.  The simple fact is that Boise State does not have to deal with the week-in week-out grind that BCS conference teams do.

However, some have argued that Boise State proved that it could beat a top 10 team, so therefore should be put in the National Championship Game because they can “beat anyone.”  These people are either forgetting or ignoring the fact that bringing the best performance in 1 or 2 weeks is completely different than needing to bring it 9 or 10 times a season like an Alabama or Ohio State does.  Boise State has shown the ability to come out and play well in big games over the past few years.  They have shocked BCS schools.  However, the difference between Boise and these other schools is the fact that Boise can cruise through 75% of their season in order to prepare for one game on the schedule.  Alabama can’t do that.  If the Tide looked ahead 3 weeks to a game against Florida, then the team would get beat by either Penn State or Arkansas.  If the Tide came out flat in either of these games, the team would lose.  That is the big difference.  Boise State can and has cruised through past games.

Last season, the Broncos beat a very mediocre Nevada team 44-33.  After Boise took an early lead, Nevada staged a 2nd half comeback that fell just short, and included a stretch of the game where Boise could not stop the Nevada offense.  In addition, Boise played a game against Louisiana Tech in which the Broncos won 45-35.  Finally, Fresno State posed a challenge to Boise, as the Bulldog offense scored 34 points on the Bronco defense.  33 points, 34 points, and 35 points.  That is the amount of points that the Bronco defense gave up in 3 regular season games against opponents that could not be considering anything but mediocre.  However, in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU, Boise State won 17-10 (in Andy Dalton’s worst performance of his career as TCU quarterback).  Now why did Boise’s defense give up 33, 34, and 35 points to WAC opponents, and only 10 to then undefeated TCU?  Either, these mediocre WAC teams have much better offenses than top 10 ranked TCU, or more reasonably, Boise State cruised through these regular season games even though they came out flat, and thereby were incredibly fresh when the bowl game came.

The big question is, how would Boise State have done against LSU, Georgia, and Florida if the Broncos played these teams instead of the WAC teams mentioned above?  Boise State came out very flat in these games, and cruised through to victory, but if the Broncos played top teams in these weeks, there is no way they would go undefeated.  In fact, I would be surprised if the Broncos won 2 of these 3 games against the SEC teams listed above.  Therefore, while Boise State is able to win its bowl games, and win the 1 big regular season game each year, there is no way to know or assume that Boise State could beat Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia in the regular season and then still come out fresh for a big non-conference game and a bowl game.  Assuming this and putting the Broncos in the National Championship Game under such an assumption is not fair to a 1 loss team out of the Big Ten or SEC, because the Broncos can come out flat in many games under their current schedule and still go undefeated.

Alabama, on the other hand, rarely had the option to come out flat.  Did the Tide come out flat when they beat Virginia Tech by 10 points in the opener last season?  Were they flat when they beat Ryan Mallett and the powerful Arkansas offense 35-7?  The closest the Tide came to playing flat was the Tennessee game, which was decided by a blocked field goal by the Alabama special teams.  However, Alabama had to bring it every week, and did so to earn themselves an undefeated season and a spot in the National Championship Game.

The big issue when deciding who will go the the National Championship Game is which teams had the best regular season, and the criteria go beyond solely record.  The criteria include record, strength of schedule, style points, etc.  If Boise State goes undefeated like last year, but only plays 1 or 2 quality opponents, it is extremely difficult to justify their schedule over a 1 loss SEC team or Big Ten team.  In addition, when the defense gives up 30+ points in multiple games to WAC opponents, it becomes even more difficult to justify this team’s success over a 1 loss BCS school, who didn’t have the opportunity to look past 8 conference games a year and only prepare for the big games.  As I said above, assuming that Boise State would go undefeated in the SEC, especially considering the Broncos struggles early in the game at times with WAC teams, and their struggles on defense with WAC teams, is simply not logical, and is unfair to the BCS conference teams.

I do feel bad that Boise State can not do too much about the scheduling problem that they have, and wish that things could change.  However, I am not here, and the BCS Committee is not here, to play favorites or simply give the proverbial “David” a chance.  It is a shame for Boise, but even though the team won all its games, and did everything it could, I can’t with a clear conscience put the team in the BCS National Championship Game simply because of this.  I can’t put them in when a 1 loss Ohio State or Alabama clearly has a more solid schedule strength, has more solid wins, and has cruised through and played less games flat than Boise.  I just can’t.  It is a shame for Boise, but until they join a BCS conference, or a playoff system is instituted, there is no way to know and would be wrong to assume that Boise can be a top tier team over the course of a full season, which is necessary to earn a spot in the National Championship Game.

College Football Week 1 Finale

The first weekend of the 2010 college football season will close with a much-anticipated Labor Day matchup.  Boise State will travel over 2,000 miles across the country, and Virginia Tech will travel under 300 miles to “neutral” site FedEx Field, home of the Washington Redskins.  Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in the country (Boise #3, VA Tech #10), and this game will have potential National Championship implications for both teams.  If Boise State loses, their National Title hopes will be completely shred.  If Virginia Tech loses, it would very likely end their championship hopes as well, but the Hokies have a more difficult schedule with which to justify a 1 loss season.  However, at this point, it is very likely that a loss for either team will end National Championship hopes.  This game is and will be one of the most hyped and most anticipated games all season.  Which team will be able to take a early step forward over the rest of the field with a marquee win in week 1?

MY PREDICTION:  Virginia Tech will establish itself early as a National Championship contender with a emphatic win tonight.  I see a 10-14 point win tonight for the Hokies.  Virginia Tech has arguably the best offense it has ever had under long-tenured head coach Frank Beamer.  The offense is led by Senior Tyrod Taylor, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in college football, and a potential Heisman candidate.  Last season, Taylor threw for 2311 yards and ran for 370 yards.  He had 18 touchdowns last season (13 throwing, 5 rushing).  Taylor is complemented in the backfield by Sophomore Ryan Williams, a back that ran for 1655 yards last season and 21 touchdowns.  He took the ACC by storm last season as a freshman, and was unstoppable at many points last season.  Williams would be considered a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy as well if not for teammate Darren Evans, with whom Williams shares the backfield.  Darren Evans is a Junior back that was hurt for all of the 2009 season, which allowed Ryan Williams to break out.  The season before, however, Evans ran for 1265 yards and 11 touchdowns, and was one of the most dominant running backs in college football.  This combination of a 2 running back system headed by two Heisman caliber players and a quarterback that is arguably the most dynamic in college football will make the Virginia Tech offense a juggernaut this season, a big part of the reason I picked Virginia Tech to go undefeated and reach the BCS National Championship Game.

The Virginia Tech defense is strong as well.  While the team needs to replace some big names on defense, Virginia Tech is a program that consistently produces strong defenses, even with the inevitable loss of some key defensive pieces each year.  Bud Foster is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, and has been for a long time.  Finally, Virginia Tech always excels in special teams (Beamer Ball), and I expect that to be no different this year.  With the Hokies, offense is always the question, and with the offense being the strong point this year for Virginia Tech, I see Virginia Tech winning tonight fairly handily over Boise State, putting the team in position to take the momentum through ACC play and into the BCS National Championship Game with an undefeated record.

For Boise State, I think this game will bring the team and the attention it has been given back to Earth.  Boise State is a good team, no doubt about it, but is not the 3rd best team in the country.  Last year, the team went undefeated and was led by Kellen Moore.  Think about it, though.  The Broncos played one quality team during the regular season, which was Oregon.  It was an impressive win, but it was Oregon’s first game under Chip Kelly, and the team really did not find its groove until a few weeks into the season, at which point the team played very impressive football.  Would Boise have won the game if it was played in say, Week 6?  There is no way to know, but the point is that the win should be taken with a grain of salt.  The other big win for the year was the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU.  The Broncos beat the Horned Frogs 17-10, but in very unimpressive fashion.  At some points the game was tough to watch.  Neither team could get any consistent offense or rhythm, and the Broncos were salvaged by a poor performance in the big game by TCU quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw 3 interceptions, 2 of which could be considered unforced.  It isn’t Boise’s fault that the BCS didn’t pair the team with a BCS school (I personally thought that was a weasel move by the BCS to avoid controversy) but I still need to so Boise win more big games over big opponents before I consider the team a legitimate National Championship contender each year. The good thing is that Boise has given itself an opportunity to do so this season, as the team will play Virginia Tech tonight and Oregon State in 2 weeks.  In addition, Boise State joined the Mountain West, which in the future years will give the team more credibility in terms of schedule strength.

However, until Boise State proves me wrong, I think the team has work to do before it is a true championship contender.  The team is simply not big enough, fast enough, or athletic enough to hang with what I believe is the 2nd best team in the country.  I predict that Virginia Tech will win tonight 31-17.

The Fiesta Bowl

I am going to tell this one like it is.  The BCS tried to save itself by putting Boise State and TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.  Of the 10 teams in the BCS bowl games, Boise and TCU were the only teams that were from non-BCS conferences.  Such teams have had mixed results in the past.  Boise State beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Hawaii got crushed by Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and Utah beat Alabama handily in the 2009 Sugar Bowl. 

Therefore, going into the 2009 BCS Bowl season, the non-BCS conferences were 2-1 in the last 3 BCS bowl appearances.  In each of these games, the non-BCS conference team was undefeated, but did not get to play for a National Championship.  This trend has led many to ratchet up the debate and controversy about whether the current BCS postseason system is fair and justified in its treatment of non-BCS conference schools.  There has been increased support of a playoff system (I myself have designed and advocated a 12 team playoff system.  See December 2nd, “Why College Football Needs a Playoff System…and Why an 8 Team System is not the Answer”). 

When this year’s BCS selections were made, and there were two non-BCS conference schools that were undefeated, I knew those BCS weasels were going to match the two up in the same bowl game.  Basically, this move was to save the BCS from any unnecessary criticism.  If either TCU or Boise State had beaten a major conference school in a bowl game, the fans would be criticizing the BCS, calling for a playoff system, and calling for a split National Championship.  The same criticism occurred in the 2006-2007 and the 2008-2009 season after BCS bowl victories by Boise State and Utah, respectively.

So, what to do to avoid any criticism? Put them both in the Fiesta Bowl.  The game could not have gone any better for the BCS, and it makes me sick.  It was a very low scoring game, so the fans do not know whether or not the defenses were very good, or if the offenses were terrible and could not hang with the top conference teams.  In addition, because the game was very close, there won’t be much controversy about a split National Championship.  For example, if TCU won by 20 or more, some people would argued that the Horned Frogs deserved a chance to play in the National Championship over Texas who somewhat snuck in with an unimpressive victory over Nebraska.  However, since the game was close, and neither team looked very stellar, the BCS avoided a potentially damaging situation by putting TCU and Boise State in the same bowl game.   

The fans will never really know how good either of these teams are, and that is the true shame of the whole situation.  Contrary to the beliefs of the committee members of the BCS, the fans’ top priority is not to criticize the system.  The fans simply want to see good football games, reward the best teams, and be respected as fans.  However, the BCS did not respect the fans in this instance, but instead duped the fans out of two good games.  The BCS duped the fans and the rest of college football out of learning how good TCU and Boise really were.  If the BCS really was trying to be fair and was confident in the system, the committee would have no problem letting the non-BCS qualifiers play against the big name teams.  Now do I think TCU or Boise State could have hung with, say, Ohio State?  I really don’t know, and that is the point.  The only way to find out how good one of these teams are is to place them against a perennial powerhouse.  If they get crushed, then they get crushed, but at least we know how good the teams really were.  Now all we know is that Boise State can beat the next best non-BCS conference team.  Great, there is one of those teams each year.  But what fans do not always get to see is the small, non-BCS team play against the big name teams.  That is why everyone has loved watching those games over the past 3 years.

Until the BCS is either ousted or its ideology is changed significantly, college football fans will continue to see the smaller teams like Boise State get the raw deal so that the BCS will not have to change. It is extremely frustrating, and the only way to change the way things are run is to take active steps to change the system.

The Mountain West?

The Mountain West has 5 teams playing in bowl games this season:  Wyoming, BYU, Utah, Air Force, and TCU.  The Mountain West has been the conference that many people think is simply the best mid-major conference, but not competitive on the national scale.  TCU’s undefeated record has been called out by many college football fans on account of little or no competition.  However, before someone passes judgement on the talent of the Mountain West, one must look at the success the conference in the recent bowl games.  Wyoming played the first bowl game of the season and shockingly defeated Fresno State, who was highly favored in the game.  Then BYU crushed Oregon State 44-20.  Finally, last night, Utah defeated Cal, 37-27 in a virtual home game for Cal at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium.

Air Force will play Houston December 31st at 12 PM.  TCU will close the Mountain West bowl season January 4th against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.  If the Mountain West wins at least one of its last two games, it would be time to consider the possibility that the Mountain West in better than at least one of the major conferences.  The Mountain West has arguably 3 upsets already, and Air Force looks to be an underdog against Houston.  TCU will be the lone Mountain West team that is favored in its bowl game, but that is only because the BCS tried to save itself by pairing the two non-BCS conference teams against each other, TCU and Boise State.  If TCU played any other team in one of the BCS bowls, the Horned Frogs would be underdogs.  Therefore, one more bowl win by the Mountain West would put the conference at 4-1 in the bowl season with at least three upsets.  With this postseason resume, the Mountain West would deserve consideration as one of the top 6 conferences in the country. 

Compare the Mountain West with the Pac-10, which is currently 0-2 in the bowl season with two losses to Mountain West teams.  Cal lost to Utah by 10, and Oregon State lost to BYU by 24.  As mentioned, both Mountain West winners were underdogs in the games, but these teams beat two Pac-10 opponents by a combined 34 points.  There is certainly something to be said for that.  The Pac-10 was extremely down this year, as USC finished 5th in conference.  The Pac-10 struggled mightily as a conference on defense this year, and that weakness was exposed by Utah and BYU. 

The Pac-10 has 5 remaining bowl games.  USC will play Boston College, UCLA will play Temple, Stanford will play Oklahoma, Arizona will play Nebraska, and Oregon will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl Game.  The Pac-10 would be doing well if it went 3-2 in these five games, and it is probable that the conference will go under .500 for its remaining games.  USC and Boston College is a toss up, but I think USC will win that game.  UCLA v. Temple will be a good game, but I think Temple will win that game.  Stanford has no defense, and that will hurt the Cardinal against Oklahoma.  Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the country, and Arizona will have trouble moving the ball against the best defense it has seen this year.  Oregon has not played a defense as strong as Ohio State this year, but when Oregon played Boise State, granted it was early in the season, it Duck offense could not move the ball well against the Bronco defense. 

So even if the conference went 3-2 in its remaining games, which would be arguably the best case scenario, that would only put the Pac-10 at 3-4 for the bowl season.  That would mean that the Pac-10 would have less wins in 7 games than the Mountain West does in 5.  Couple that with the fact that the Mountain West gave the Pac-10 2 of its losses, the games in which both Mountain West teams were underdogs, and one must consider the possibility that the Mountain West is a better football conference than the Pac-10.

The Inadequacies of the BCS

In this entry I will explain how the BCS bowl system does not give all teams a fair chance to win the National Championship.  In addition, I will evaluate the system based upon how the current playoff system affects the college football regular season negatively.

The college football postseason system that is currently in place does not meet the expectations of college football fans.  First, not all teams have an opportunity to win the National Championship.  For example, teams from non-BCS conferences, meaning those from conferences other than the SEC, Big XII, Big Ten, Big East, PAC 10, and ACC, may go undefeated and still not even have the opportunity to play for a National Championship.  Only three seasons ago, the Boise State Broncos, from the Western Athletic Conference, or WAC, went undefeated.  However, the team was not placed in the BCS Championship Game but the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.  Boise State played one of the most flawless games in college football history and defeated the mighty Oklahoma Sooners to cap a perfect season.  The BCS Committee decided that Boise State did not deserve a chance to play for a National Championship, instead of letting the teams decide that for themselves.

Last season, the Utah Utes, from the Mountain West Conference, also played an undefeated regular season.  The team was assigned to the Sugar Bowl against the formidable Alabama Crimson Tide, who had lost in a nail biting game in the SEC conference championship to the eventual National Champion Florida Gators.  Utah outplayed Alabama in every aspect of the game, even though nearly every expert thought that Utah could not match up with Alabama’s size.  The BCS Committee decided that Utah did not deserve a chance in the BCS Championship Game.

These examples of small teams defeating some of the country’s best teams are numerous.  However, these teams enter spring practices knowing that they can not become National Champions.  That is not was the NCAA is about.  The NCAA claims to focus on giving all student athletes the opportunities to succeed.  This is not the case in college football.  The injustice does not end there.  Extremely talented teams, often with one loss, do not have a chance to prove that they are the best team in college football.

For example, nearly every year, the USC Trojans have one loss, often against a lesser foe that the team seems to “look past.”  Each year, there are either two undefeated teams from BCS conferences, or one loss teams from the SEC or Big XII that play in the National Championship instead of USC.  Last year, Penn State was beaten by one point, in one game, by a field goal made with one second left, on the road against Iowa.  Why does Penn State not have a chance at the National Championship? Why does USC not have chance at the National Championship?  Because the way the BCS bowl system is arranged, only two teams enter the postseason with a chance to become champions.  The system in place today does not meet the high standards demanded by such an entertaining sport.

While most college football fans realize that the BCS does not give all teams opportunities to win the National Championship, most do not realize that the BCS affects the regular season negatively as well.  The poor setup of the postseason affects the quality of play in the regular season.  Teams know full well going into each season that one loss can end their BCS hopes.  Therefore, teams often lighten their schedules in order to eliminate the chances of losses.  For example, Penn State’s 2009 out of conference schedule included the following: Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois.  Those four teams are horrific, and the team that had the closest point differential against Penn State was Syracuse with 21.  Why does Penn State do this?  The athletic director and coaches know that if the team plays Florida and Oklahoma out of conference and loses to either one of those teams, another one loss Big XII or SEC team would still top Penn State’s bid for the BCS National Championship Game.  Why should Penn State take such chances?  Realistically, they should not.  Therefore, Penn State focuses solely on going undefeated in regular season play and hopes that other big name teams lose so that Penn State can sneak into the title game.

Who loses when teams soften their schedules in this way?  The fans.  The reason college football is considered the most entertaining sport with the most entertaining regular season is because fans can watch marquee games every week with big name programs squaring off.  That trend is changing.  With the scheduling the way it is now, it is rare to see a non-conference game between two highly ranked teams.  Therefore, in college football today, the BCS system is even affecting the regular season in a negative way.

The answer to this problem is to create a college football playoff system.  For my take on what type of playoff system is best for college football, see my December 2^nd blog entry, “Why College Football Needs a Playoff System…And Why an 8 Team System is not the Answer.”