McNabb Gets Paid

BREAKING NEWS:  Donovan McNabb has agreed to a contract extension with the Washington Redskins for 5 years and $78 million, which could be worth as much as $88 million with incentives based upon performance.  This inexplicable deal comes on the heels of the inexplicable benching of McNabb in the final minutes of the Redskins vs. Lions game 2 weeks ago.  After 2 weeks of questions about McNabb’s place on the Redskins team, the future of McNabb with the Redskins, and the relationship between McNabb and the organization, those questions were answered emphatically with a huge contract extension that will put McNabb on the FedEx Field sideline for the several years.

Hold Your Horses

Last night, Boise State defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies 33-30 at FedEx Field in Washington D.C.  The game had huge implications for the National Championship picture, as Boise State has only 1 more game that should realistically give the Broncos any trouble.  In 2 weeks, Oregon State will travel to the Smurf Turf to face Boise State in what will be Boise’s last BCS school matchup until potentially the bowl game.  Most assume this game to be a victory for Boise, who will face an Oregon State team who will most likely be unranked after this weekend’s loss to TCU.

Therefore, I will write this blog under the assumption that Boise State will go undefeated in the regular season.  Should the Broncos earn a spot in the BCS National Championship Game if they do so?  Part of me feels bad saying this, but absolutely not.  The Broncos will not have done nearly enough to put together a compelling resume that would top a 1 loss or even a 2 loss SEC, Big XII, or Big Ten team.

The big issue for me is about strength of schedule.  It is a exaggerated example, but a middle of the road college football team playing the best high school teams would still hammer the competition and post an undefeated record.  While the WAC isn’t filled with high school teams, it is one of the lesser conferences in the country, and the fact that Boise State does (should) have 8 easy games on the schedule each year makes it difficult for me to give the team credit as a National Championship contender.

For the purposes of this post I will assume that Ohio State loses 1 game this season and still wins the Big Ten.  I will also assume that Alabama loses one game and still wins the SEC.  Finally, I will assume that Boise State will be the lone undefeated school this season.  Which of those teams should go to the National Championship? I would immediately eliminate Boise State.  With an undefeated season, Boise State will have 2 solid wins: Virginia Tech and Oregon State, with the Virginia Tech game considered the only quality win.  Ohio State, on the other hand (judging by the schedule), with 1 loss, would have 4-5 quality wins, and even more solid wins.  Alabama would have 6 quality wins and 9 solid wins even with one loss.  The simple fact is that Boise State does not have to deal with the week-in week-out grind that BCS conference teams do.

However, some have argued that Boise State proved that it could beat a top 10 team, so therefore should be put in the National Championship Game because they can “beat anyone.”  These people are either forgetting or ignoring the fact that bringing the best performance in 1 or 2 weeks is completely different than needing to bring it 9 or 10 times a season like an Alabama or Ohio State does.  Boise State has shown the ability to come out and play well in big games over the past few years.  They have shocked BCS schools.  However, the difference between Boise and these other schools is the fact that Boise can cruise through 75% of their season in order to prepare for one game on the schedule.  Alabama can’t do that.  If the Tide looked ahead 3 weeks to a game against Florida, then the team would get beat by either Penn State or Arkansas.  If the Tide came out flat in either of these games, the team would lose.  That is the big difference.  Boise State can and has cruised through past games.

Last season, the Broncos beat a very mediocre Nevada team 44-33.  After Boise took an early lead, Nevada staged a 2nd half comeback that fell just short, and included a stretch of the game where Boise could not stop the Nevada offense.  In addition, Boise played a game against Louisiana Tech in which the Broncos won 45-35.  Finally, Fresno State posed a challenge to Boise, as the Bulldog offense scored 34 points on the Bronco defense.  33 points, 34 points, and 35 points.  That is the amount of points that the Bronco defense gave up in 3 regular season games against opponents that could not be considering anything but mediocre.  However, in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU, Boise State won 17-10 (in Andy Dalton’s worst performance of his career as TCU quarterback).  Now why did Boise’s defense give up 33, 34, and 35 points to WAC opponents, and only 10 to then undefeated TCU?  Either, these mediocre WAC teams have much better offenses than top 10 ranked TCU, or more reasonably, Boise State cruised through these regular season games even though they came out flat, and thereby were incredibly fresh when the bowl game came.

The big question is, how would Boise State have done against LSU, Georgia, and Florida if the Broncos played these teams instead of the WAC teams mentioned above?  Boise State came out very flat in these games, and cruised through to victory, but if the Broncos played top teams in these weeks, there is no way they would go undefeated.  In fact, I would be surprised if the Broncos won 2 of these 3 games against the SEC teams listed above.  Therefore, while Boise State is able to win its bowl games, and win the 1 big regular season game each year, there is no way to know or assume that Boise State could beat Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia in the regular season and then still come out fresh for a big non-conference game and a bowl game.  Assuming this and putting the Broncos in the National Championship Game under such an assumption is not fair to a 1 loss team out of the Big Ten or SEC, because the Broncos can come out flat in many games under their current schedule and still go undefeated.

Alabama, on the other hand, rarely had the option to come out flat.  Did the Tide come out flat when they beat Virginia Tech by 10 points in the opener last season?  Were they flat when they beat Ryan Mallett and the powerful Arkansas offense 35-7?  The closest the Tide came to playing flat was the Tennessee game, which was decided by a blocked field goal by the Alabama special teams.  However, Alabama had to bring it every week, and did so to earn themselves an undefeated season and a spot in the National Championship Game.

The big issue when deciding who will go the the National Championship Game is which teams had the best regular season, and the criteria go beyond solely record.  The criteria include record, strength of schedule, style points, etc.  If Boise State goes undefeated like last year, but only plays 1 or 2 quality opponents, it is extremely difficult to justify their schedule over a 1 loss SEC team or Big Ten team.  In addition, when the defense gives up 30+ points in multiple games to WAC opponents, it becomes even more difficult to justify this team’s success over a 1 loss BCS school, who didn’t have the opportunity to look past 8 conference games a year and only prepare for the big games.  As I said above, assuming that Boise State would go undefeated in the SEC, especially considering the Broncos struggles early in the game at times with WAC teams, and their struggles on defense with WAC teams, is simply not logical, and is unfair to the BCS conference teams.

I do feel bad that Boise State can not do too much about the scheduling problem that they have, and wish that things could change.  However, I am not here, and the BCS Committee is not here, to play favorites or simply give the proverbial “David” a chance.  It is a shame for Boise, but even though the team won all its games, and did everything it could, I can’t with a clear conscience put the team in the BCS National Championship Game simply because of this.  I can’t put them in when a 1 loss Ohio State or Alabama clearly has a more solid schedule strength, has more solid wins, and has cruised through and played less games flat than Boise.  I just can’t.  It is a shame for Boise, but until they join a BCS conference, or a playoff system is instituted, there is no way to know and would be wrong to assume that Boise can be a top tier team over the course of a full season, which is necessary to earn a spot in the National Championship Game.

College Football Week 1 Finale

The first weekend of the 2010 college football season will close with a much-anticipated Labor Day matchup.  Boise State will travel over 2,000 miles across the country, and Virginia Tech will travel under 300 miles to “neutral” site FedEx Field, home of the Washington Redskins.  Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in the country (Boise #3, VA Tech #10), and this game will have potential National Championship implications for both teams.  If Boise State loses, their National Title hopes will be completely shred.  If Virginia Tech loses, it would very likely end their championship hopes as well, but the Hokies have a more difficult schedule with which to justify a 1 loss season.  However, at this point, it is very likely that a loss for either team will end National Championship hopes.  This game is and will be one of the most hyped and most anticipated games all season.  Which team will be able to take a early step forward over the rest of the field with a marquee win in week 1?

MY PREDICTION:  Virginia Tech will establish itself early as a National Championship contender with a emphatic win tonight.  I see a 10-14 point win tonight for the Hokies.  Virginia Tech has arguably the best offense it has ever had under long-tenured head coach Frank Beamer.  The offense is led by Senior Tyrod Taylor, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in college football, and a potential Heisman candidate.  Last season, Taylor threw for 2311 yards and ran for 370 yards.  He had 18 touchdowns last season (13 throwing, 5 rushing).  Taylor is complemented in the backfield by Sophomore Ryan Williams, a back that ran for 1655 yards last season and 21 touchdowns.  He took the ACC by storm last season as a freshman, and was unstoppable at many points last season.  Williams would be considered a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy as well if not for teammate Darren Evans, with whom Williams shares the backfield.  Darren Evans is a Junior back that was hurt for all of the 2009 season, which allowed Ryan Williams to break out.  The season before, however, Evans ran for 1265 yards and 11 touchdowns, and was one of the most dominant running backs in college football.  This combination of a 2 running back system headed by two Heisman caliber players and a quarterback that is arguably the most dynamic in college football will make the Virginia Tech offense a juggernaut this season, a big part of the reason I picked Virginia Tech to go undefeated and reach the BCS National Championship Game.

The Virginia Tech defense is strong as well.  While the team needs to replace some big names on defense, Virginia Tech is a program that consistently produces strong defenses, even with the inevitable loss of some key defensive pieces each year.  Bud Foster is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, and has been for a long time.  Finally, Virginia Tech always excels in special teams (Beamer Ball), and I expect that to be no different this year.  With the Hokies, offense is always the question, and with the offense being the strong point this year for Virginia Tech, I see Virginia Tech winning tonight fairly handily over Boise State, putting the team in position to take the momentum through ACC play and into the BCS National Championship Game with an undefeated record.

For Boise State, I think this game will bring the team and the attention it has been given back to Earth.  Boise State is a good team, no doubt about it, but is not the 3rd best team in the country.  Last year, the team went undefeated and was led by Kellen Moore.  Think about it, though.  The Broncos played one quality team during the regular season, which was Oregon.  It was an impressive win, but it was Oregon’s first game under Chip Kelly, and the team really did not find its groove until a few weeks into the season, at which point the team played very impressive football.  Would Boise have won the game if it was played in say, Week 6?  There is no way to know, but the point is that the win should be taken with a grain of salt.  The other big win for the year was the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU.  The Broncos beat the Horned Frogs 17-10, but in very unimpressive fashion.  At some points the game was tough to watch.  Neither team could get any consistent offense or rhythm, and the Broncos were salvaged by a poor performance in the big game by TCU quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw 3 interceptions, 2 of which could be considered unforced.  It isn’t Boise’s fault that the BCS didn’t pair the team with a BCS school (I personally thought that was a weasel move by the BCS to avoid controversy) but I still need to so Boise win more big games over big opponents before I consider the team a legitimate National Championship contender each year. The good thing is that Boise has given itself an opportunity to do so this season, as the team will play Virginia Tech tonight and Oregon State in 2 weeks.  In addition, Boise State joined the Mountain West, which in the future years will give the team more credibility in terms of schedule strength.

However, until Boise State proves me wrong, I think the team has work to do before it is a true championship contender.  The team is simply not big enough, fast enough, or athletic enough to hang with what I believe is the 2nd best team in the country.  I predict that Virginia Tech will win tonight 31-17.