College Football Week 10 Preview

Saturday will be one of the most intense, important, and influential days of this year’s college football season.  Two top 10 matchups, multiple other ranked matchups, and a milestone-seeking game for Joe Paterno and Penn State highlights the weekend.

The biggest matchup of the weekend will take place at Baton Rouge this weekend.  Alabama will travel to LSU for a top 10 matchup that will likely propel the winner to be the top ranked 1 loss team.  LSU is arguably the most underrated team in college football.  Analysts constantly knock their offensive capabilities and their coaching.  However, the Tigers are 7-1 in the toughest conference in football, have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and North Carolina, have only lost to #1 Auburn on the road by 7 points.  Alabama remains the top ranked 1 loss team, and looks to further improve their already impressive resume by beating #10 LSU.

MY PREDICTION:  Gut feeling here, and maybe a pick from the heart, but no one is giving LSU a chance, and that is wrong.  Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will do just enough on offense, and the LSU defense will hold strong as it has all year.  Playing in Baton Rouge doesn’t hurt, either.          LSU 24—Alabama 20

Two top 5 teams and the two leaders in the Mountain West will play in Salt Lake City, as TCU travels to play Utah.  TCU recently jumped Boise State in the BCS rankings to climb to 3rd, and Utah jumped 3 spots to 5th last week for no apparent reason after skating by Air Force.  Utah is the most overrated team in college football.  Their notable wins are victories over Pitt (by 3 in overtime at home), Air Force by 5 (TCU beat Air Force 38-7), and a blowout win against Iowa State.  Utah has shown nothing to impress me this season, which is why I have the Utes ranked at #21.  That’s right, 16 spots behind the BCS.

MY PREDICTION:  Utah is exposed at home by a solid TCU team. TCU 34—Utah 20

In Happy Valley, Joe Paterno seeks his 400th victory against Northwestern.  Joe’s 399 wins leads all coaches who have ever coached at the FBS level.  Number 2 all-time, Bobby Bowden, trails him by 22 wins, a full 2 or more seasons of work.  Paterno will cement his resume as the best college football coach of all time with the victory, if he has not done so already.  Paterno will decide on Saturday whether to start sophomore Matt McGloin, who led the Nittany Lions to victory with an impressive performance against Michigan, or Rob Bolden, the freshman who started the season for the Lions and suffered a concussion in the Minnesota game 2 weeks ago.  To me, McGloin gives the Lions the best chance to win, and has been effective in limiting his mistakes in the 2 games he has played.

MY PREDICTION:  No matter the starting quarterback, Penn State will find a way to win on Saturday.  The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium will be electric, the running game will continue to improve, and the defense will play an inspired effort to give JoePa his 400th win and a slight upset against upstart, 6-2 Northwestern.  Penn State 27— Northwestern 23

Other Notable Games: (And my Predictions)

#1 Oregon (42)—Washington (17)

#2 Auburn (59)—Chattanooga (3)

#4 Boise State (42)—Hawaii (20)

#12 Stanford (31)–#15 Arizona (27)

#17 Oklahoma State (31)—#21 Baylor (28)

#18 Arkansas (38)—#19 South Carolina (24)

Illinois (30)—Michigan (28)

Miami (35)—Maryland (24)

Texas (19)—Kansas State (17)

The Power of the FCS

The Football Championship Subdivision, formerly know as Division 1-AA, is a part of Division 1 along with the Football Bowl Subdivision, formerly known as Division 1-A. The pervasive attitude among the majority of college football fans is that the FBS is significantly better than the FCS at football.  Most think that FBS and FCS are two separate levels of Division 1 football, and that FBS is simply the higher level.

However, three years ago, the proper description of Division 1-AA changed to Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), and Division 1-A became the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).  This change in terminology was made because the NCAA believed that by categorizing the subdivisions as D1-A and D1-AA, it created an unfounded assertion that D1-A was better than D1-AA.  The NCAA did not want to send that incorrect message, and therefore the terminology was changed.  The FCS includes many talented football teams that are fully capable of competing with and defeating solid, marquee FBS programs.

FCS football is characterized differently than the FBS because of the amount of money that is dedicated to a school’s football program.  Competitive schools in the FBS are funded inordinate amounts of money from the athletic departments, sponsors, and patrons.  These are the schools that often have the 75,000+ seat stadiums.  Schools in the FCS are funded by the athletic department, but often are not the center focus of athletics at the university.  For example, the Villanova Wildcats basketball team is funded much more by the athletic department, sponsors, and patrons than the football team is.  The same relationship exists at other FCS schools like Georgetown and Dayton.

FCS teams often have smaller stadiums that hold anywhere from 10,000-25,000 fans.  In 2006, statistics were recorded about the attendance ratings for college football.  It found that the average attendance for an FBS game was 45,828 fans, while the team who averaged the highest attendance was Michigan with 110,026 fans per game.  FCS average attendance was 8,029 fans per game, and the team with the highest average attendance was Montana with 22,600 fans per game.  Therefore, the separation between FBS and FCS teams is not made because the FBS was thought to be much better than the FCS.  The distinction is made because FBS schools’ football programs receive more funding and more revenue than FCS programs do.

A common argument against the quality of FCS play is that because the FBS schools devote more money to their football programs, those schools consistently get the best recruits, and whoever is left simply falls to FCS schools.  This notion is not true because the high school football talent has been expanding exponentially over the past 15 years.  Many high schools have either begun a football program, reinstated a football program, or drastically improved their football program over the past few decades.  High school football has expanded across the country and has produced many more talented players than ever before.  The quality of the top high school players in the country has not drastically improved, but the number of talented players has increased greatly.  This trend has created a surplus of quality talent across the high school football circuit.

FCS programs have benefited greatly from the rapid expansion of high school football.  These schools can now recruit players that before would not have been interested in the football program.  Consider the decision facing a current high school senior who is being recruited by a solid FBS school and a reputable FCS school.  Should he go to play for an FBS school, face a lot of bench time, and possibly play as a walk on, or should he go to an FCS school and play for all four years and be under scholarship?  Many high school athletes are realizing that the more financially responsible and the more enjoyable option is to go to an FCS school and be a star football player for four years.  In addition, FBS schools no longer have the clear advantage in recruiting because the top high school players are no longer much more talented than those players recruited by FCS schools.  This new trend has leveled the playing field in college football and has allowed FCS schools to keep pace with FBS schools in terms of recruiting.

Another argument attempting to belittle the quality of play in the Football Championship Subdivision is that the top tier FBS schools, such as Florida, Alabama, and Texas, would beat the top FCS schools, and therefore the FBS is so much better than the FCS.  It is definitely true that Florida could beat Villanova, Alabama could beat Richmond, and Texas could beat Montana.  However, in the November 28^th, 2009 BCS rankings, Florida, Alabama, and Texas were the three teams who were ranked far ahead of the rest.  In addition to a numerical ranking system, the BCS uses percentages, which calculates how well teams have played while also considering the difficulty of their schedules.  Florida (.987), Alabama (.951), and Texas (.928), are all rated much higher by percentage than the next rated team (TCU .869).  The 10^th team in the country, Georgia Tech, had a .580 percentage, which shows how quickly the ratings drop after the top teams.  When people argue that the three top teams in the FBS would defeat the top three FCS teams, they are correct, but they also need to realize that these teams would defeat every other FBS team, and often quite handily.  This is also evident when one looks at the top three team’s records.  Neither Florida, Alabama, nor Texas was beaten in the regular season last year, and all three teams play in one of the top two conferences in the country.  Therefore, one can not say that the FBS as a whole is better than the FCS by citing the quality of only the top three teams in the FBS.  One must examine the quality of the majority of teams in both subdivisions before making a statement about which subdivision is better.

There have been numerous games where FCS teams have shown their talent by beating solid, competitive FBS teams.  Many of these games were shown on national or regional television, which increased the viewership.  The most recognizable FCS victory over an FBS school was Appalachian State’s victory over then fifth ranked Michigan on the road in 2007.  This year was not just a down year for Michigan.  The powerhouse Michigan Wolverines still finished the season ranked in the top 15 and defeated Florida in the Capital One Bowl, regarded as the best non-BCS Bowl and the sixth best bowl in the country.  In 2009, the success of the FCS has continued, with many FCS victories over FBS opponents.

On September 3^rd, 2009, the Villanova Wildcats defeated the Temple Owls to capture the inaugural Mayor’s Cup.  The Temple Owls went 9-3 in the regular season last year, with the only other losses coming to number 11 ranked Penn State, and Ohio, the MAC East Champions.  Temple had a 9 game win streak at one point during the season and was nearly ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll.

On September 5^th, 2009, the William and Mary Tribe beat the Virginia Cavaliers, a solid ACC program who went 5-7 last year.  The Tribe played on the road and defeated the Cavs convincingly 26-13.  Also on September 5^th, the Richmond Spiders defeated Duke, from the ACC, by a score of 24-16.  Duke went 5-7 last year and started 5-3 before finishing with a four game losing streak.

Iowa and Northern Iowa also played on September 5^th, 2009.  Northern Iowa lost to Iowa by one point on the road and had two chances to kick a last minute field goal to win the game.  Iowa proceeded to start the season 9-0, finish second in the Big 10 Conference, and be ranked in the BCS top 10.  The Hawkeyes only missed the conference championship because of an overtime loss to number 8 ranked Ohio State.  Northern Iowa gave Iowa a test at home and arguably played better than Iowa.   These same Iowa Hawkeyes earned a BCS Bowl berth and beat Penn State by 11 points on the road.  These games are just a few examples of FCS teams competing well with and often defeating quality FBS teams in 2009.

Early in the 2010 season, things have not changed.  FCS teams have continued to surprise and scare big name FBS teams.  Notable efforts include Jacksonville State (on the road) defeating Ole Miss from the SEC, James Madison (on the road) defeating Virginia Tech from the ACC, who lost to Boise State by only 3 points in Week 1 and beat perennial mid-major standout East Carolina by 22 points in Week 3.  Finally, just this past weekend, Massachusetts, a solid but not stellar program from the FCS, played undefeated and much-heralded Michigan close, and lost by only 5 points on the road.  The Minutemen scored 37 points on a team that gave up 10 points to Connecticut and 24 to Notre Dame.  These are only a few examples of FCS victories over FBS marquee programs over just the past 2 years.

Jeff Sagarin is a USA Today journalist who has provided a unique college football ranking system since 1985.  He has produced the most well-renowned college football rankings that include both FBS and FCS teams.  In the November 28^th, 2009 rankings, the top ranked FCS team was Villanova at 40.  William and Mary and Richmond were ranked 55 and 56 respectively.  Notable FBS teams ranked lower than 40^th included Florida State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Notre Dame.   Some FBS teams that were ranked lower than 56 include: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Michigan State, Temple, and Minnesota.  These top FCS teams were ranked higher than many traditional college football powerhouses.

When fans are watching college football on a fall Saturday, they need to realize the talent and strength of FCS football as a whole.  FCS football does not get the respect it deserves for the talent it produces and the success it has against the FBS.  For years the quality of the FCS has been neglected by the public, but this ignorance is beginning to fade.  The many FCS victories over FBS opponents are no longer upsets, they will become more prevalent as the playing field becomes even more level.  It has been proven that FCS programs have caught up to many FBS football programs in terms of recruiting and success.  It has been shown that many FCS teams have played well against and defeated quality FBS teams in 2009 and 2010.  Fans will be reluctant to accept the fact that the FCS is in fact extremely competitive, but given the rapid increase in the quality of play, people need to begin to give it more respect.

Podcast: 2010 Preseason College Football Predictions

Title: 2010 Preseason College Football Predictions

Bob Long’s Sports Blog’s inaugural podcast, featuring colleague Chris Pierangeli.  The podcast includes analysis and predictions for the upcoming college football season.  Created on August 25, 2010.

Download Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/enclosure/2010-08-29T18_00_39-07_00.mp3

College Football Conference Update

Yesterday, the big 5 from the Big XII (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) declared that they would all remain with the Big XII and not pursue other conference affiliations.  This declaration leaves the Big XII with 10 teams, the Big Ten with 12 teams, and the Pac 10 with 11 teams.  Expansion seems to have been abated temporarily, but the wheel will surely begin turning again soon, even if not with the same velocity.

The Pac 10 is not satisfied.  The conference was a few hours away from a “Super-Conference” with teams such as Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, among others.  The conference was a few hours away from taking a dominant foothold in college football from the Pacific to the Great Plains.  A few hours away from becoming the richest conference in the history of college football, with the combined effect of the big programs added and the launch of a conference television network.  The network is still in the works, and may be released soon, but it will not have the momentum and power that it would have had if the Big XII powers had joined the Pac 10.

What is next for the Pac 10?  Most likely, the conference will pursue a 12th team so that the conference can have a championship game.  The most likely candidate is Utah from the Mountain West.  However, the Pac 1o, more than any conference, was disappointed in the result of the expansion process, and lost the most yesterday afternoon.

The Big XII was the big winner from the expansion.  It seems illogical to say that the Big XII is the winner, considering the conference lost 2 teams, but the conference is a winner because it is still standing.  Hours before the top teams announced that they would stay in the Big XII, it looked as if the conference would lose 2 of the top 10 all-time programs (Texas and Oklahoma), along with many other notable programs, and thereby dissolve as a whole.  However, since the big programs declared their allegiance in the Big XII, the conference will stay afloat- barring some unforeseen last-minute changes.  In addition, the conference will remain the second best in the country in my opinion, and the conference teams will be more profitable than in the past, due to similar total revenues and less teams with which to share it. 

The Texas Longhorns were the big winners in terms of the individual programs.  Texas had two conferences catering to their wants, and the program utilized this leverage to the fullest advantage.  Texas forced Big XII commissioner Dan Beebe’s hand to the point that he allowed Texas to retain its revenue-sharing deal within the conference (which rendered the program extremely profitable relative to the rest of the conference), and he opened the door for Texas to launch its own television network, which will exponentially increase the program’s revenue.

The Big Ten was also a winner from the whole process, as the conference added Nebraska, a prestigious program that will almost certainly be ranked in the top 10 to begin next season.  In addition, with 12 teams, the conference added the necessary component through which to institute a conference championship, which the Big Ten has been seeking for years.

The Big East is a conference that is safe for now, but is certainly not out of the water.  The Big Ten appears to be satisfied with 12 teams at this point, but if it decides to add as many as 4 more teams, the Big East could be in trouble, as the Big Ten could undoubtedly seek programs such as Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse, among others.  The Big Ten has also reportedly targeted Notre Dame, but the loss of the Irish would not be a big problem for the survival of the Big East.  The focus now will shift from the Big XII to the Big East, and the Big East will be on the defensive.  More to come as more develops.

More Conference Changes

BREAKING NEWS:  Boise State is the next domino to fall in the NCAA-wide conference shuffle.  The Broncos moved from the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) to the Mountain West Conference.  Nebraska also officially announced that it would join the Big Ten today, as was expected. 

Today also brought as much speculation as answers.  Big XII schools such as Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State expressed interest in moving to the Pac 10.  Texas A&M was in discussion with the SEC about a possible conference move.  The SEC also still has interest in Texas and Oklahoma, among others, even though these schools expressed interest in the Pac 10 today.  The Big Ten has retained interest in Texas, although that proposition has become much less likely in the past few weeks.  Finally, if these powerhouses leave the Big XII for the SEC or Pac 10, the Mountain West may attempt to pick up some of the Big XII schools left behind, such as Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, among others.  The Big Ten may still also have interest in the northern Big XII schools, most notably Missouri.  So many possibilities to be decided in the next few weeks, and Bob Long’s Sports Blog will cover every development.

The school that intrigues me most in this roulette is Kansas.  Think about it.  This mediocre football school appears to be a school left behind as the Big XII may fall apart and the bigger football schools join other conferences.  However, Kansas has arguably the most prestigious college basketball program in the history of college basketball (apologies to UCLA, Kentucky, and North Carolina), and the team would be so far out of place in the Mountain West.  Does anyone else have a problem with Wyoming strolling into Allen Fieldhouse each year for a conference game?  I know I do and I know Kansas fans do.  Therefore, the Kansas football program appears to be keeping the university from switching to a big name conference, and the big story will be how this will affect the basketball team.  Another question is whether a conference like the Big Ten would take Kansas (even with the mediocre football program) because of the competition, prestige, and revenue the Jayhawk basketball program will bring to the conference.

A few important answers today led to even more questions, so stay tuned in the coming weeks.

Dominoes Falling in College Football Conferences: Big XII on the Short End

Today, two big shifts occurred in college football.  The supposed apocalypse of the college football conference landscape appears to be happening.  Now the only question is who will be left out of the party, and where teams will land at the end of the roulette.  Colorado officially accepted a bid to become a member of the Pac 10 Conference.  Nebraska has reportedly accepted an invitation to become a member of the Big Ten Conference, and a statement is expected to be released on Friday.

Therefore, the Big XII Conference, known to be the 2nd best conference in football in recent years, may cease to exist in the very near future.  The conference has already lost 2 teams (Nebraska and Colorado) and is now left with 10.  I also expect that Missouri, which is very unhappy with the treatment it has received with regard to revenue sharing in the Big XII, will bolt for the Big Ten very soon.  That leaves a conference that has already struggled with revenue compared to nearby conferences such as the Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC, with only 9 teams.  So what could the conference do to restore itself?  Pick up more teams? Not likely.  The Mountain West Conference, with teams such as Utah, TCU, and BYU, would be the hotbed from which to draw potential universities.  However, the problem with this solution is that the Mountain West is also trying to expand, and has reportedly offered a bid to Boise State from the WAC.  Therefore, the Mountain West is lobbying hard to expand its conference so that the conference isn’t looted for its talent like the Big XII is now.

However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mountain West is raided for its talent, and Boise State does not join.  Where will those teams go?  Does one really think that Boise (from the WAC), Utah, or BYU will go to the Big XII?  Certainly not based upon location compared to the Pac 10, and certainly not based upon revenue as compared to the Pac 10.  Therefore, the only team that could join the Big XII from the Mountain West would most likely be TCU.

So the best case scenario for the Big XII is that the conference loses the three teams that are almost certain to leave (Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri), and then picks up TCU from the Mountain West.  10 teams isn’t a terrible number, and I believe the conference would be very happy with this result.  However, the one key factor that has yet to be discussed is the influence of the SEC.  The SEC has reportedly had interest and contact with Texas and Texas A&M about a possible conference change.  The Big Ten has also had significant interest in Texas.  Then there is Oklahoma, which is also a potential target for the SEC.  If one of these three powerhouses leaves the Big XII (Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M), then most likely all will look to find new homes, and this would spell doom and the end of the Big XII Conference as we know it.

Therefore, to college football fans who do not quite have the whole picture in terms of the conference shifting, here is a cliffnotes version of what is most important.  Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri will leave.  The Big XII will attempt to acquire teams like TCU from the Mountain West to offset the departure of these three schools, but this is not what is important.  The Big XII could continue to thrive under 9 teams or even 8 teams, and the addition of a Mountain West school is not necessary.  What is essential for the future is the conference is the decision of these three teams; Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  These three teams are the mainstays of the conference, and Texas has major rivalries with both Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  If one of these three teams leaves the Big XII, at least one of the other two will follow, which will leave the conference depleted and will cause the third and final team to leave.  If this happens, this will end the confernece as we know it.  Therefore, when analyzing the conference shifts, and the future of the Big XII, worry not about Colorado or Nebraska, or whether the conference can entice TCU, but worry about what will happen to Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  Those three universities hold the conference in the palms of their hands at this point, and can drop it at any point they wish.

Big Ten Expansion…and More?

The most pressing issue cascading through the  college football landscape is that of conference expansion.  Leading the charge for expansion is the Big 10 Conference, whose last expansion occurred in 1989 when Penn State accepted an invitation to join the conference.  The Nittany Lions gave up their then independent status in football, and left the Atlantic 10 Conference in the other sports to join the Big Ten.

In 2010, the potential expansion again revolves around an indepedent football school.  Notre Dame, under new head coach Brian Kelly, has reportedly been invited to join the conference and give up its indepedent status in football and its Big East affiliation in basketball and other sports.  Coach Kelly has asserted that he would like the school to remain independent because of the ability to be a “national” program, and the ability to play any team it wants without restrictions.  It may be financially beneficial to remain independent as well, as the school has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game in the waiting if the team finishes in the top 8 in the Final BCS Standings.  In addition, the Fighting Irish have a lucrative network TV contract with NBC, which provides a lot of revenue for the school and most likely could not be matched by that of a conference team. 

However, if there were a conference that could provide revenue that rivals what Notre Dame makes now, it would be the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has lucrative contracts with both the ESPN Family of Networks and its own network, the Big Ten Network.  But the equal distribution of revenue, which potentially attracts teams such as Missouri from the Big XII to the Big Ten, may dissuade teams such as Notre Dame.  If the revenue needs to be shared equally with as many as 15 other teams, Notre Dame may be unable to acquire as much revenue within the Big Ten that it does now.  Certainly there are many pro’s and con’s for Notre Dame to consider as the conference expansion train appears to be rolling by very quickly.

Speaking of the Missouri Tigers, that program is also considering moving from the Big XII to the Big Ten.  In addition, the Big Ten has reportedly invited Nebraska to join.  Rumors have circulated that the Big Ten is a potential suitor for Texas, as well as Oklahoma, but Nebraska and Missouri make the most sense geographically and have generated the most talk of expansion.  Both member programs of the Red River Rivalry have remained silent on the issue to this point.  As stated, Missouri’s main interest in the Big Ten stems from the fact that the Big XII does not share revenue equally, and as a result the program does not receive as much TV revenue as Texas or Oklahoma.  Nebraska is a logical choice geographically for the Big Ten, which is the likely reason for that invitation.

The Big East did not escape unscathed from the long reach of the Big Ten.  Invitations have been reportedly extended to Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rutgers.  These schools would give the Big Ten an increased East Coast presence, as at this point only Penn State gives the conference such diversability. 

With the extension of so many invitations to the conference, the Big Ten could include up to 16 teams within a few years.  If one is doing the math, this expansion could spell the doom of the Big East and Big XII conferences.  The Big East could lose 4 schools to the Big Ten, including Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, and Notre Dame (in every sport but football).  At this point the Big East Conference would only include football schools Connecticut, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida.  That is it.  With schools such as Villanova and Georgetown competing at the FCS level, and schools such as St. Johns and Marquette which don’t have football programs at all, the conference could collapse upon itself because of the lack of strength and number from the football programs.  This could lead to a collapse of the entire conference as a whole, and the demise of the overall best college basketball conference since the most recent expansion before the 2005-2006 season.

The Big XII could face a similar fate.  With rumors of Colorado moving to the Pac-10, and the possibility of Texas and Oklahoma moving to either the Pac-10 or the SEC, the Big XII could lose up to 6 of its premier programs, leaving only the likes of Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, among others.  The Big XII could potentially wither as the Big East could due to the domino effect started by the Big Ten.

So what does this all mean? Could a situation really occur in which the Big Ten could include as many as 16 teams, Notre Dame could no longer be independent, and there could only be 4 major “super-conferences,” with the destruction of the Big XII and the Big East?  Will the history of rivalries such as Pittsburgh and West Virginia (the Backyard Brawl), Texas and Oklahoma (the Red River Rivalry), and Texas and Texas A&M, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (Bedlam), become traditions of the past?  These potential realities could all be realized with the right collapse of the dominoes in the conference expansion carousel. 

Is it good for football?  I tend to think no, as the beauty and excitement of rivalries will be compromised.  Sure, we will have 4 superconferences, but where will the excitement come from?  How will the Big Ten be so exciting when teams don’t even play half the teams in their conference?  How can a true conference champion be crowned with the possibility of 3 undefeated teams in a conference?  The only positive of this change to 4 superconferences would be the potential inclusion of teams such as Boise State and TCU in a conference like the Pac-10.  With this improvement, the 4 year debate about how to appropriately reward teams like Boise State, TCU, and Utah with their weak regular season schedules will end.  All these teams will be included in power conferences, and finally will need to prove themselves week in and week out.

With all these possibilities for conference expansion, it is apparant that there will be a major shift of some kind in the college football landscape.  Bob Long’s Sports Blog will follow the development every step of the way and keep you readers updates with every phase of the massive transition as the details emerge.

NCAA Tournament First Thursday Recap

Wow, what a day.  I am still trying to catch my breath from the first day of the first round of the NCAA tournament.  Slightly over 12 consecutive hours of NCAA basketball brought us buzzer beaters, upsets, and upset scares that will define this year’s NCAA tournament.

Let’s start with the first slate of games, which tipped from 12:20-12:30.  Florida played BYU in a double overtime thriller that included end of period stops by BYU that kept the Cougars in the game and allowed the team to eventually win the game in double overtime.  Jimmer Fredette led the Cougars and refused to let them lose after Florida mounted a late comeback to force overtime.

Also, Villanova played 15th seeded Robert Morris in the early slate.  Robert Morris came out with intensity and enthusiasm, and Villanova came out flat.  Turnovers, unnecessary fouls, and missed open shots highlighted an extremely frustrating day, to say the least, for Villanova players and fans.  The Cats were down 8 points with just under 4 minutes remaining when Scottie Reynolds singlehandedly put the team on his back.  He missed only 1 free throw on the day and attacked the rim with both intelligence and agression, which allowed him to draw many fouls and put him on the line.  Last minute attempts by both Nova and RMU went begging, and the game went to overtime.  Nova came out much more aggressively in the overtime period and took a convincing lead early in the period, but Robert Morris cut the Nova lead to 3 before Reggie Redding hit 1 of 2 free throws (after a very stupid decision to waste 2 extra seconds by holding the ball and getting fouled instead of scoring an uncontested layup).  Then RMU hit a 3 to cut the lead to 1, Nova hit 2 free throws, and Robert Morris missed a last second 3 pointer off the back iron which would have tied the game.  Nova escaped and won a thriller, 73-70.

In the 3rd game of the afternoon slate, Notre Dame played Old Dominion, winner of the CAA.  The Irish and Monarchs played a slow, burn style offense, as Notre Dame seemed to dictate the pace of the game.  However, Old Dominion was content to hang with the Irish, stay in the game (as usually occurs when a team plays a burn style offense), and then try to win at the end.  This is exactly what the Monarchs did.  Old Dominion took the lead with under 5 minutes remaining, and held off Notre Dame to win 51-50 after Notre Dame missed several 3 point attempts to tie the game, but instead made a tip in at the buzzer to lose by 1 point. 

There were 4 games in the 2:30-2:50 time frame.  Murray State and Vanderbilt led this slate of games, and may have been the best game of the day.  Murray State held a 3-5 point lead for the majority of the game, until the final 5 minutes when Vanderbilt mounted a comeback and took the lead.  The teams proceeded to trade the lead back and forth, until Murray State forward Danero Thomas hit a 17 foot jump from the foul line extended as time expired to win the game.  Murray State had claimed the first big upset of the tournament, and there were certainly more upsets and big finishes to come.

Baylor played 14th seeded Sam Houston State in what would also become an unexpected thriller.  The teams traded the lead back and forth all game, and the game was tied at 55 with under 4 minutes remaining.  Only at this point did the Bears come to life, and outscored Sam Houston State 13-4 to end the game and escape with a 68-59 victory.

Kansas State played North Texas in a game that was only close for about the first 10 minutes.  The Wildcats handily beat 15th seeded North Texas 82-62.

Finally, Richmond played St. Mary’s in the 7-10 matchup that was delayed almost an hour by the Villanova Robert Morris thriller.  This was one of the most interesting games in the first round because it posed 2 smaller conference teams at a similar talent level.  The 1st half proved to be a tight, well played half, as the teams were tied at 36 after the 1st half.  St. Mary’s took control early in the 2nd half and refused to give it up, as the Gaels led the Spiders by more than 15 points towards the end of the 2nd half.  Richmond mounted a slight comeback, but simply did not have enough time or firepower to come back.  St. Mary’s won 80-71 and moved on the play Villanova on Saturday.

In the “dinner hour,” there was only 1 game played, as UTEP faced Butler.  UTEP, the 12 seed, looked to upset the Horizon League winner and move on to face Murray State.  UTEP took a 6 point lead into half, but Gordon Hayward and Butler took complete control in the 2nd half, and won handily 77-59.

During the night session, there were 3 buzzer beaters.  That’s right, 3 buzzer beaters in 8 games.  The nightcap was what highlighted the first day.  First, UNLV faced Northern Iowa in the 8 vs. 9 matchup.  The game was back and forth all game, until Northern Iowa guard and superscorer Ali Farokhmanesh hit an NBA length 3 point shot with 7 seconds remaining.  UNLV could not get a shot off in the final seconds of the game, and the Rebels lost 69-66 to the Panthers of Northern Iowa.

Kentucky took care of 16th seeded East Tennessee State 100-71 in a blowout.

The Marquette vs. Washington game was one of the most anticipated games in the first round.  Marquette took control of the game, especially early in the 2nd half, but then the Huskies crawled back into the game.  Washington forced a tie at 78 with 2:09 remaining.  The teams went back and forth without scoring until Quincy Pondexter hit a contested layup as he dribbled to his left with 1 second remaining.  Lazar Hayward (my pick for Player of the Year in the Big East) was just long on a halfcourt shot attempt which would have won the game.  However, the Huskies came back to shock the Golden Eagles 80-78.

In the final primetime game, Georgetown played 14th seeded Ohio, winner of the MAC conference.  Ohio played out of its shoes, as the team shot 58.2% from the field and 56.5% from 3 point range.  Georgetown simply could not keep up with the rampant shooting by the Bobcats.  However, the Hoyas were not without blame.  The Hoyas’ 18 turnovers gave Ohio a lot a momentum and opportunity, which carried the Bobcats through the game.

In the late night session, each of the games were interesting for either the entire game or the majority of the game.  Kansas played 16th seeded Lehigh, and the surprising and upstart Mountain Hawks answered each of Kansas’ runs until about the 10 minute mark in the 2nd half, at which point Kansas sprinted ahead and did not look back.  However, upset minded fans were kept enthralled for a large part of the game by Lehigh’s aggressive, run and gun style, and the team’s 3 point shooting success.  KU moved ahead late and won 90-74.

Wake Forest and Texas was an absolutely unbelievable game.  Two teams that really struggled down the stretch in the regular season played one of the most closely contested games of the 1st round.  Wake had the lead for the majority of the game, but Texas creeped back into the game late to force overtime.  Texas looked to put the Demon Deacons away with a 7 point lead in the extra frame, but Wake Forest would not give up.  The combination of scoring by Wake late in the extra frame and missed free throws by Texas put the Deacs down only 1 with 10 seconds.  Speedy guard Ish Smith raced down the floor, changed directions twice, and finally shot a twisting 15 foot jumper that fell to give Wake the 81-80 win.  What an unbelievable finish this game provided.  Wake will play Kentucky on Saturday for the right to advance to the Sweet 16.

Tennessee played 11th seeded San Diego State, winner of the Mountain West.  Tennessee controlled the game by retaining a 3-5 point lead for the majority of the game, but San Diego State mounted a mini-run in the last 5 minutes to cut the Tennessee lead to 1 point with 10 seconds remaining.  However, after Tennessee hit 2 free throws, the Aztecs misses a last second 3 point shot that would have tied the game and sent it to overtime.  The Volunteers jogged off the court victoriously celebrating to “Rocky Top,” and the team will return Saturday to play Ohio.

The final came of the night was between New Mexico and 14th seeded Montana, who won the Big Sky Conference.  The upset minded Grizzlies took a 1 point lead into half, after which New Mexico went on a run that put them ahead by double digits.  However, the Grizzlies slowly creeped their way back into the game, and Montana cut its deficit to 1 point at 1:44 remaining in the game.  Anthony Johnson did everything he could to keep Montana in the game, but New Mexico was simply too strong in the end, and the Lobos won 62-57.

That is a brief recap of all 16 games of the first round of the NCAA tournament.  It was one of the best days I have ever seen in the tournament, and certainly the best first day of the tournament I have ever witnessed.  The remainder of the first round will be played Friday, March 19th.

The Curse of the #1 Rank

It has long been believed by college basketball fans that when a team is the number 1 seed in the country, there is a target on that team’s back.  Every team that plays the number 1 team in the country gives its best effort to knock off the top team.  This has been as evident as ever this season in college  basketball.  Over the past three weeks, each of the top seeds have lost.

3 weeks ago, Kansas lost to Tennessee, who had suspended a few of its best players prior to that game, and was relying on many walk-ons during that game.  Needless to say, even though this game was on the road and against Tennessee, losing to a team mostly made up of walk-ons was very unimpressive for the Jayhawks, and dropped them to #3 in the AP Poll, and #4 in my rankings.  Just last week, Texas lost twice as the top seed: to Kansas State and to UConn, both of whom lost their next games, to Oklahoma State and Providence, respectively.  Finally, this week, Kentucky lost on the road to South Carolina, who has had a mediocre season at best.  John Calipari has stated multiple times that his team has lost “7 or 8 times,” but has simply come up with wins in the last minute.  The Wildcats could not win at the end of the game this week.

As many of the top seeds go down, and these teams are filtered down in the rankings, how will the next #1 team fare?  In the AP Poll, the #1 seed will most likely be Kansas, given that the Jayhawks win out this week.  In my rankings, the current #2 team is Villanova, and with the Kentucky loss and a Villanova win tonight over Notre Dame with no games remaining before the rankings come out Monday, Nova will likely be #1 in my rankings next week.   

Nova plays Seton Hall at home next Tuesday, and will play Georgetown next Saturday, which I will have the privilege to attend.  Both these teams are very talented teams that have the opportunity to play with any team in the country.  Seton Hall has a horrendously difficult schedule, both in and out of conference, and 5 of the Pirates’ 6 losses are to ranked teams.  Jeremy Hazell is a premier scorer in the Big East who leads the team in scoring.  Georgetown is a top 15 team in the country, ranked 5th in my Top 25 this week, but lost to Syracuse and will drop.  Georgetown lost a thriller to Nova 2 weeks ago, after staging a huge 2nd half comback to tie the game at one point.  Villanova will have to play solid in order to stay #1 in my rankings after next week.

Kansas has to play Kansas State this Saturday, which is before the new ranking come out, at KSU’s Bramlage Coliseum.  Kansas State has recently beaten top seeded Texas at Bramlage, and beat top seeded Kansas at Bramlage during Michael Beasley’s only year at Kansas State.  KSU is always a difficult place to play, and Kansas will have to play very well to avoid a loss.  The next week, Kansas has a fairly weak schedule, with games against Nebraska and Colorado.  The following week, however, will be a potential Big XII regular season championship deciding game, as Kansas will travel to Austin to play Texas on Monday, February 8th.

Through the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see how the top teams fare after the recent lack of success by these teams.  Villanova, Kansas, and even Syracuse all have chances to be a top seed in the coming weeks, and all have challenging schedules remaining with just over 1 month till conference tournaments start.

Big XII Power Rankings

Last week I did my Big East Power Rankings, and once a week for the next few weeks I will do the same for another college basketball conference.  Today I will analyze the Big XII.

1. Kansas- Led by senior Sherron Collins and junior Cole Aldrich, the Jayhawks were the preseason #1 ranked team and did not disappoint early in the season.  Aided also by the presence of highly regarded freshman Xavier Henry, the Jayhawks demolished almost every opponent in non-conference to post a 12-0 record through the new year.  The Jayhawks’ lone loss was to Tennessee on January 10th, and are 17-1 and are the lone undefeated left in Big XII play at 3-0.

2. Texas- Yes, I understand that Texas lost to Kansas State earlier this week.  However, that game was played at Kansas State’s Bramlage Coliseum, which is an extremely intimidating atmosphere and a very difficult venue for an opponent.  In addition, while it did seem that some weaknesses of Texas were presented in this game, Texas has looked, on the whole, slightly more impressive than Kansas State on the season.  Led by talented seniors Damion James and Dexter Pittman, Texas has a strong combination of athletic guards, forwards, and a dominant center down low.  Texas is a team that is a potential National Championship contender, but needs to become more mature in big games like the one played against Kansas State earlier this week.

3. Kansas State- The Wildcats put themselves directly on the map after winning a big game at home against #1 ranked Texas.  Kansas State is a run and gun team that looks to put constant pressure on the opponent and relies on the great home court advantage it has at Bramlage Coliseum.  Led by senior point guard Denis Clemente, K-State has compiled an impressive 16-2 record and is 3-1 in the Big XII.  Denis Clemente runs the offense for the Wildcats by both scoring at will and distributing for key players Jacob Pullen, Jamar Samuels, and Curtis Kelly, who are all averaging in double figures.

4. Baylor- After these top 3 teams, the Big XII seems to take a step down.  However, Baylor appears to be the best of the rest.  The Bears have a 14-3 record and a 2-2 Big XII record, including an impressive effort in a 6 point loss to Kansas last night.  The Bears are an extremely explosive offensive team that can score at will against talented defenses.  Led by guards LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter, the Bears rely upon one of the most talented backcourts in the Big XII, a conference that has very talented guard play this year.

5. Missouri- The Tigers have had an up and down season after losing some key pieces from its elite 8 team of last year.  After starting 5-3, however, the Tigers embarked upon a 9 game winning streak that ended only after a thrilling loss in Norman to the Sooners this past Saturday.  The Tigers also won an impressive game against Kansas State.  Missouri remains a run and gun offense led head coach Mike Anderson, and relies upon Kim English, Marcus Denmon, and Lawrence Bowers to provide the explosive offense.  My only concern with the Tigers is that they are 1-3 on the road, although their road win at Texas Tech was an impressive win.  The road struggles will be something to watch as the season progresses.    

6. Texas A&M- Although the Oklahoma State Cowboys have a better record than Texas A&M, the Aggies are a better team.  Texas A&M has a 13-5 record, with losses to West Virginia, New Mexico, Washington, Kansas State, and Texas.  The Aggies had the gumption to schedule some difficult games in the non-conference, and has two early tests in Big XII play against 2 of the 3 best teams in the Big XII.  As a result, the Aggies’ 13-5 record and 2-2 record in Big XII play somewhat masks the true talent level of the Aggies, led by Donald Sloan and Derrick Roland.

7. Oklahoma State- At this point many of the Big XII teams begin to look about the same.  However, Oklahoma State posts a superior record (14-4) and has less bad losses than the rest of the remaining Big XII teams.  Led primarily by James Anderson, who is averaging over 20 points, Oklahoma State is a high scoring offense that looks to score early and often on Big XII defenses.

Teams 8-12

8. Texas Tech

9. Oklahoma

10. Iowa State

11. Nebraska

12. Colorado