Podcast: College Basketball 2010 Preview

Title: College Basketball 2010 Preview

This Bob Long’s Sports Podcast includes a full preview of College Basketball, from conference winners, to surprise teams, to who you can expect to see at the top come March. With Chris Pierangeli.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-10T21_34_58-08_00

Podcast: 9/28 Sports Blitz

Title: 9/28 Sports Blitz

Our second Sports Blitz, where Chris and I give our opinions on the hot topics in sports, including Penn State football, Braylon Edwards, and many other topics. With special guest Adam Bittner. Also, our new intro and closing music is unveiled in this episode. Enjoy!

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-09-28T19_22_49-07_00

The Power of the FCS

The Football Championship Subdivision, formerly know as Division 1-AA, is a part of Division 1 along with the Football Bowl Subdivision, formerly known as Division 1-A. The pervasive attitude among the majority of college football fans is that the FBS is significantly better than the FCS at football.  Most think that FBS and FCS are two separate levels of Division 1 football, and that FBS is simply the higher level.

However, three years ago, the proper description of Division 1-AA changed to Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), and Division 1-A became the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).  This change in terminology was made because the NCAA believed that by categorizing the subdivisions as D1-A and D1-AA, it created an unfounded assertion that D1-A was better than D1-AA.  The NCAA did not want to send that incorrect message, and therefore the terminology was changed.  The FCS includes many talented football teams that are fully capable of competing with and defeating solid, marquee FBS programs.

FCS football is characterized differently than the FBS because of the amount of money that is dedicated to a school’s football program.  Competitive schools in the FBS are funded inordinate amounts of money from the athletic departments, sponsors, and patrons.  These are the schools that often have the 75,000+ seat stadiums.  Schools in the FCS are funded by the athletic department, but often are not the center focus of athletics at the university.  For example, the Villanova Wildcats basketball team is funded much more by the athletic department, sponsors, and patrons than the football team is.  The same relationship exists at other FCS schools like Georgetown and Dayton.

FCS teams often have smaller stadiums that hold anywhere from 10,000-25,000 fans.  In 2006, statistics were recorded about the attendance ratings for college football.  It found that the average attendance for an FBS game was 45,828 fans, while the team who averaged the highest attendance was Michigan with 110,026 fans per game.  FCS average attendance was 8,029 fans per game, and the team with the highest average attendance was Montana with 22,600 fans per game.  Therefore, the separation between FBS and FCS teams is not made because the FBS was thought to be much better than the FCS.  The distinction is made because FBS schools’ football programs receive more funding and more revenue than FCS programs do.

A common argument against the quality of FCS play is that because the FBS schools devote more money to their football programs, those schools consistently get the best recruits, and whoever is left simply falls to FCS schools.  This notion is not true because the high school football talent has been expanding exponentially over the past 15 years.  Many high schools have either begun a football program, reinstated a football program, or drastically improved their football program over the past few decades.  High school football has expanded across the country and has produced many more talented players than ever before.  The quality of the top high school players in the country has not drastically improved, but the number of talented players has increased greatly.  This trend has created a surplus of quality talent across the high school football circuit.

FCS programs have benefited greatly from the rapid expansion of high school football.  These schools can now recruit players that before would not have been interested in the football program.  Consider the decision facing a current high school senior who is being recruited by a solid FBS school and a reputable FCS school.  Should he go to play for an FBS school, face a lot of bench time, and possibly play as a walk on, or should he go to an FCS school and play for all four years and be under scholarship?  Many high school athletes are realizing that the more financially responsible and the more enjoyable option is to go to an FCS school and be a star football player for four years.  In addition, FBS schools no longer have the clear advantage in recruiting because the top high school players are no longer much more talented than those players recruited by FCS schools.  This new trend has leveled the playing field in college football and has allowed FCS schools to keep pace with FBS schools in terms of recruiting.

Another argument attempting to belittle the quality of play in the Football Championship Subdivision is that the top tier FBS schools, such as Florida, Alabama, and Texas, would beat the top FCS schools, and therefore the FBS is so much better than the FCS.  It is definitely true that Florida could beat Villanova, Alabama could beat Richmond, and Texas could beat Montana.  However, in the November 28^th, 2009 BCS rankings, Florida, Alabama, and Texas were the three teams who were ranked far ahead of the rest.  In addition to a numerical ranking system, the BCS uses percentages, which calculates how well teams have played while also considering the difficulty of their schedules.  Florida (.987), Alabama (.951), and Texas (.928), are all rated much higher by percentage than the next rated team (TCU .869).  The 10^th team in the country, Georgia Tech, had a .580 percentage, which shows how quickly the ratings drop after the top teams.  When people argue that the three top teams in the FBS would defeat the top three FCS teams, they are correct, but they also need to realize that these teams would defeat every other FBS team, and often quite handily.  This is also evident when one looks at the top three team’s records.  Neither Florida, Alabama, nor Texas was beaten in the regular season last year, and all three teams play in one of the top two conferences in the country.  Therefore, one can not say that the FBS as a whole is better than the FCS by citing the quality of only the top three teams in the FBS.  One must examine the quality of the majority of teams in both subdivisions before making a statement about which subdivision is better.

There have been numerous games where FCS teams have shown their talent by beating solid, competitive FBS teams.  Many of these games were shown on national or regional television, which increased the viewership.  The most recognizable FCS victory over an FBS school was Appalachian State’s victory over then fifth ranked Michigan on the road in 2007.  This year was not just a down year for Michigan.  The powerhouse Michigan Wolverines still finished the season ranked in the top 15 and defeated Florida in the Capital One Bowl, regarded as the best non-BCS Bowl and the sixth best bowl in the country.  In 2009, the success of the FCS has continued, with many FCS victories over FBS opponents.

On September 3^rd, 2009, the Villanova Wildcats defeated the Temple Owls to capture the inaugural Mayor’s Cup.  The Temple Owls went 9-3 in the regular season last year, with the only other losses coming to number 11 ranked Penn State, and Ohio, the MAC East Champions.  Temple had a 9 game win streak at one point during the season and was nearly ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll.

On September 5^th, 2009, the William and Mary Tribe beat the Virginia Cavaliers, a solid ACC program who went 5-7 last year.  The Tribe played on the road and defeated the Cavs convincingly 26-13.  Also on September 5^th, the Richmond Spiders defeated Duke, from the ACC, by a score of 24-16.  Duke went 5-7 last year and started 5-3 before finishing with a four game losing streak.

Iowa and Northern Iowa also played on September 5^th, 2009.  Northern Iowa lost to Iowa by one point on the road and had two chances to kick a last minute field goal to win the game.  Iowa proceeded to start the season 9-0, finish second in the Big 10 Conference, and be ranked in the BCS top 10.  The Hawkeyes only missed the conference championship because of an overtime loss to number 8 ranked Ohio State.  Northern Iowa gave Iowa a test at home and arguably played better than Iowa.   These same Iowa Hawkeyes earned a BCS Bowl berth and beat Penn State by 11 points on the road.  These games are just a few examples of FCS teams competing well with and often defeating quality FBS teams in 2009.

Early in the 2010 season, things have not changed.  FCS teams have continued to surprise and scare big name FBS teams.  Notable efforts include Jacksonville State (on the road) defeating Ole Miss from the SEC, James Madison (on the road) defeating Virginia Tech from the ACC, who lost to Boise State by only 3 points in Week 1 and beat perennial mid-major standout East Carolina by 22 points in Week 3.  Finally, just this past weekend, Massachusetts, a solid but not stellar program from the FCS, played undefeated and much-heralded Michigan close, and lost by only 5 points on the road.  The Minutemen scored 37 points on a team that gave up 10 points to Connecticut and 24 to Notre Dame.  These are only a few examples of FCS victories over FBS marquee programs over just the past 2 years.

Jeff Sagarin is a USA Today journalist who has provided a unique college football ranking system since 1985.  He has produced the most well-renowned college football rankings that include both FBS and FCS teams.  In the November 28^th, 2009 rankings, the top ranked FCS team was Villanova at 40.  William and Mary and Richmond were ranked 55 and 56 respectively.  Notable FBS teams ranked lower than 40^th included Florida State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Notre Dame.   Some FBS teams that were ranked lower than 56 include: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Michigan State, Temple, and Minnesota.  These top FCS teams were ranked higher than many traditional college football powerhouses.

When fans are watching college football on a fall Saturday, they need to realize the talent and strength of FCS football as a whole.  FCS football does not get the respect it deserves for the talent it produces and the success it has against the FBS.  For years the quality of the FCS has been neglected by the public, but this ignorance is beginning to fade.  The many FCS victories over FBS opponents are no longer upsets, they will become more prevalent as the playing field becomes even more level.  It has been proven that FCS programs have caught up to many FBS football programs in terms of recruiting and success.  It has been shown that many FCS teams have played well against and defeated quality FBS teams in 2009 and 2010.  Fans will be reluctant to accept the fact that the FCS is in fact extremely competitive, but given the rapid increase in the quality of play, people need to begin to give it more respect.

Nova to the Big East in Football?

The Villanova Wildcats football program is the defending Division 1 Football Champion.  The Cats won the Football Championship Subdivision last December and captured the school’s first National Championship in football.  Given the recent success of the program, and the questions that exist in terms of conference structure in collegiate athletics right now, there has been speculation from fans for months about the potential move for Villanova football from FCS to FBS football.  However, recently the speculation rose to a new level, as Big East commissioner John Marinatto visited the Villanova campus before the Temple game to inform the school of the conference’s interest in adding Villanova as a football school.  As of now, Villanova participates as a Big East school in all sports except football, as the program is in a different subdivision of football than the Big East.

Just today, Villanova President Father Donohue sent an email to all Villanova alumni informing them of the opportunity presented, and stated that the Board of Trustees was beginning a thorough analysis of the situation, and that a formal decision will not be made until this analysis is complete.

To Father Donohue, I’ll complete your decision making process in under 2,000 words:

The possible move of Villanova football from the FCS to the FBS is an idea that could be detrimental to the football program.  Not only that, but the decision could have more far-reaching effects, such as to many other varsity sports that could be sized down or even removed due to budget and other constraints.

Lets focus on the adverse effects the move would have on the football program itself:

Villanova now is a great power in the FCS.  The players, coaches, fans, and administration love where the program is right now and love the excitement it has brought to the university.  The football program is also in the right spot in that it is extremely competitive in the division in which it plays, but isn’t so big that it draws attention away from the rest of the school.

Here are the problems, therefore, with the potential move:

1) Nova football does not have enough fans- I am a diehard Nova football fan (one of the few), and I can say with supreme confidence that the team does not and will not have enough fans to support the move to the FBS.  Last year (when the team won the National Championship), Nova wasn’t in the top 20 for attendance averages for the FCS, and DIDN’T SELL OUT A HOME GAME.  Many argue that the fans will follow when the team moves to the FBS.  My question: Why? How?  Why and how will more fans follow when they already aren’t supporting a championship caliber team.  I don’t know of any person that says, “O, the team is losing about half its games now, and some by double digits,  as opposed to last year when the team won 10 games in the regular season and won the National Championship?  Where is the box office, I have to get in on this action!”  That isn’t the way it works.  College football hasn’t and won’t work in the city of Philadelphia.  Temple was a member of the Big East conference for football from 1991-2004, but was forced out partially due to the fact that no fans came to the games.  So will the fans really follow, especially when Nova won’t be nearly as competitive as it is now?  Doubtful, and certainly not something at which to throw your blind hope.

2) Nova doesn’t have a facility that is FBS suitable- Villanova stadium, where the Wildcats play their home games, holds about 12,000 fans.  FBS standards require at least 15,000 seats, and any FBS stadium with only 15,000 seats is a laughingstock.  To resolve the seating problem, Villanova has a few options.  The first option is to add seating to Villanova Stadium, most likely to complete the seating structure around the backs of the endzones.  This would cause severe financial strain on the university and athletics department.  Another option is to lease a larger stadium, such as Lincoln Financial Field, where Temple plays, PPL Park, where the Philadelphia Union (soccer) plays, or even Franklin Field, where the Penn Quakers play.  The constant among these options is that they ALL COST MONEY.  Any move to another location for 6 games a year will cost the university a lot of money that it isn’t spending now.

…which leads to the next issue.

3) Lack of endowments- Villanova is a small, private, Catholic institution.  All the money for athletics comes from the athletic department and donations of wealthy alumni.  At this point, most of those donations go to the thriving basketball program.  Therefore, if Nova moved to the FBS, a lot more money would be needed to finance the transition itself, the needed improved facilities on campus, the scholarships, the increased marketing for the program, and many other factors.  It takes a lot of money to finance all these prospects, and Nova simply doesn’t have it and can’t generate it.  Think about it.  How many small, private, Catholic football programs exist and thrive at the FBS level?  I think of 2.  Notre Dame, which is simply an outlier in the fact that their alumni support is unmatched by private schools in the country.  Boston College, which has been an established football program for a long time.  Boston College is the only comparable school to Villanova which has succeeded with a football program at the FBS level.  However, there are problems with this comparison as well.  BC has always had a larger endowment than Villanova, and the university and local areas support the program more so than Villanova.  BC has a 44,000 seat stadium on campus (Alumni Stadium), a project which would NEVER pass in the Villanova-Radnor community.  Therefore, there is only one example of a school comparable to Villanova that has succeeded at the FBS level, and this school has numerous advantages over Nova that allowed them to do so, not limited to the financial advantages.

4) Competition- All the above points are valid and are very important, but how about the fact that Villanova has to compete year in and year out at the FBS level in a BCS conference.  Granted, Nova has been very impressive in the past 2 years.  A 3 loss season 2 years ago (including a trip to the FCS quarterfinals), and a National Championship season last year.  And believe me, I have loved every minute of it and think that (right now) Nova can compete with Big East teams.  However, I did say that Nova could compete “right now.”  How about next year, or the year after that?  Nova’s roster is losing the following players for next season: Starting QB Chris Whitney, Starting WR, KR, Reigning FCS Championship MVP, and Walter Payton Award Nominee Matt Szczur (best player at Villanova since Brian Westbrook, if not of all time), the top 3 running backs on the team (Aaron Ball, Angelo Babbaro, Louis Adeyemi), 3 starting linebackers (Terence Thomas, Marquis Kirkland, Jacob Wade), and 3 defensive backs (Fred Maldonado, John Dempsey, Martel Moody).  This is the year where the team is at its peak.  The team came into its own last year by winning the National Championship, and is just as strong this season.  But what about next season?  Are there really players just as talented that are ready to fill the shoes of these graduating players as Nova is about to enter a BCS conference?  Before the 2008 season, when the players that are leading the team now began to play well and led the team to the playoffs, Nova hadn’t made the FCS playoffs since 2002.  2002! In a 16 team playoff! In the FCS! And now people want this team to move up to a BCS conference for the remaining life of the program with all new players and an unclear direction.  I must not have the intelligence to understand such a thought process.

5) Recruiting- Nova has thrived upon recruiting Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and other relatively local players that would have been sitting the bench for programs such as Rutgers, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, etc.  However, now that Nova is in the same league as these teams, and has to compete squarely with the teams, there is no way that Nova will succeed without completely changing its recruiting philosophy.  And the next question is, will a stand up coach like Andy Talley be able to compete in the recruiting game at the FBS level while continuing his ethical practices that have endeared fans to both him and the football program?  And if he fails, then what?  Will the university be forced to fire the coach that built the program so that it could ascend to the FBS level in the first place?

6) Basketball won’t be affected!!!- Much of the speculation has been propelled by the basketball fans who care only about the basketball program and don’t care about the quality of other big-name sports at Villanova (namely football).  They believe that the “landscape in college athletics is changing” (Man, if I had a nickel for every time I read or heard that).  To those people, I need to ask why the basketball program will be so adversely affected if the football program moves to the FBS.  The collegiate landscape at the present moment is not changing, and contrary to popular belief, I don’t see it changing any time soon.  Which conference will steal all the Big East teams and dissolve the Big East?  The Big Ten?? The conference added Nebraska, spent months designing a new conference alignment with the 2 divisions, and has now created the Big Ten football schedule for the next 4 years.  The Pac-10?? The Pac 10 may not be done expansion, but will not reach 3,000 miles across the country to take multiple Big East schools.  Colorado was about as far as they would go.  The ACC?? Why, when the conference has the option to take multiple SEC schools, which are miles ahead of the Big East schools in the much more lucrative sport of college football.  Therefore, I don’t see any power conference as a viable threat to take over the Big East football schools at this point.

AND EVEN IF FOR SOME REASON THAT DOES HAPPEN, WHO CARES!! Last I checked there were 8 schools in the Big East for basketball (half of the total conference) that don’t play football in the Big East.  Notre Dame remains independent and shows no inclination to change anytime soon.  Villanova, Georgetown, Depaul, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Marquette, and Providence either play at the FCS level or don’t have football programs.  So tell me, even if the conference raid begins again and the Big East football schools are all shipped to different conferences, what is the problem with having an 8 team basketball-only conference?  Villanova and Georgetown are 2 traditional powerhouses near the top of the college basketball spectrum right now, Marquette and Notre Dame are locks for the NCAA tournament nearly every season, and are very exciting teams, Seton Hall almost made it to the tournament last year, and St. Johns is on the way back up with Steve Lavin now at the helm.  Providence and Depaul aren’t great teams, but Providence especially is always a solid program, and is one of the original Big East schools, back when it was a basketball only conference.  Therefore, even if the absolute worst happens, and the Big East football conference ceases to be, Nova will be just fine (if not in a more stable spot) if the Big East football schools are haphazardly distributed to new conferences.

So, Father, here is why the program should not move up:

1) Not enough fans

2) Not a suitable facility

3) Lack of Endowments

4) Competition

5) Recruiting

6) Basketball will be just fine without the switch

If the program does switch, someone better have a darn convincing argument as to why.

Villanova vs. Temple Preview

Tonight, at Lincoln Financial Field, the Villanova Wildcats will play the Temple Owls in the 2nd Annual Mayor’s Cup. Both teams are coming off impressive seasons, as Villanova won the FCS National Championship, and Temple won 9 games and went to a bowl game for the first time in years. Both teams are looking to build upon the success of last season in this opener.

MY PREDICTION: Villanova will take control of this game with their “Big 3″ on offense, in quarterback Chris Whitney, WR and do everything option Matt Szczur, and highly touted offensive lineman Ben Ijalana. The always strong Wildcat defense will hold Bernard Pierce of Temple in check.
Villanova 24 Temple 16

In another Philadelphia local game, the defending PIAA State Champions, La Salle College High School, will play at North Penn, ranked #1 in PA according to pennlive.com.

MY PREDICTION: I have to go with the alma mater. I think La Salle will feed off the momentum of the state championship and the energy of the many fans making the trip.
La Salle 30 North Penn 27

NCAA Tournament First Friday Preview

Most Intriguing Matchup:

#8 California vs. #9 Louisville:  Pac-10 vs. Big East, part 2, after Washington beat Marquette in the final seconds today.  Is the Big East really down this year?  This game will do a lot to answer that question.  In addition, the winner of this 8 vs. 9 matchup will face what many, including myself, believe is the most beatable 1 seed in the tournament.  Louisville’s defense vs. Jerome Randall and Cal’s offense will also be an interesting matchup.

Upset Alert:

#4 Purdue vs. #13 Siena- Purdue has struggled mightily after the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel.  If Siena can contain JaJuan Johnson, Siena will be able to severely limit the Purdue offense and ultimately pull off the big upset.

Upset Pick to Avoid:

#12 Cornell vs. #5 Temple- This pick was made popular by Cornell’s loss to Kansas and Jay Bilas’ pick, which sends Cornell to the Elite 8.  The fact is, Cornell hasn’t beaten anyone and has had some really bad losses, including a blowout against Penn.  Temple, on the other hand, has had many big wins, including an out of conference win over Villanova and conference wins over fellow NCAA tournament counterparts Xavier and Richmond.  In addition, Temple has a much stronger defense that the majority of teams that Cornell has played.  Bottomline, Cornell is the most “smoke-and-mirrors” team in this tournament, and I believe Temple is a fairly safe bet Friday.

Atlantic 10 Power Rankings

The A-10 is a conference that has gotten a lot of praise and notoriety recently from national pundits, such as Joe Lunardi.  Many of you know my thoughts on the A-10 from recent posts (See yesterday’s blog, “Bracketology,” for an interesting take on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology with regards to the A-10); however, I am by no means trying to say that the A-10 is not a great conference.  I think it is a talented conference at the top that deserves 3, maybe 4 teams in the NCAA tournament this year.  I think that it is the 6th best conference in the country this year, and better than the Pac-10, one of the traditional Power 6.  Therefore, below I have provided my power rankings for the Atlantic 10.

1. Temple-Although the Owls are tied for 3rd in the A-10, they are still the most explosive and talented team in the conference.  Prided upon active defense and timely shooting, Temple has hoisted itself into the Top 25 rankings this season with impressive performances by Juan Fernandez, Lavoy Allen, and Ryan Brooks.  Temple is 19-5 with a big win over rival Villanova, but has struggled recently with losses to Charlotte and Richmond by double digits in the past 2 weeks.  The Owls will still be a difficult team to beat come March if the offense can step up, but the offense hasn’t been consistent this year.

2. Richmond- The Spiders are the hottest team in the A-10 right now, with consecutive big victories over Temple and Rhode Island, and are on a 5 game winning steak and a 7-1 recent stretch.  Led by Kevin Anderson, David Gonzalvez, and Justin Harper, who are all averaging above 1o points, the Spiders have an impressive out of conference resume, including wins over Mississippi State, Missouri, and Florida.  It is a strong non-conference schedule like this that warrants an NCAA tournament bid, which is why in yesterday’s blog I placed Richmond over teams like Charlotte and Dayton, who have very similar resumes.  In conference play, Richmond is caught in the log jam of the top 7 teams in conference, which are all within 1 game in the loss column.  However, it is Richmond’s non conference success that separates it from the rest of the teams.

3. Xavier- The Musketeers have a 16-7 record on the year, but are coming off a terrible 25 point loss to Dayton.  It is difficult to keep Xavier at 3rd in the A-10 after this type of loss, but this loss was the team’s first true terrible loss of the season.  Xavier has lost to Wake Forest, Kansas State, Baylor, Butler, Marquette, and Temple before losing by 25 at Dayton.  Led primarily by Jordan Crawford, Xavier is an explosive team that can assert itself offensively at almost any point.  However, Xavier at times needs a second scorer and needs Jordan Crawford to do less.  Too much reliance on him could cause problems in March, when he will be facing talented defenders each game.

4. Rhode Island- The Rams have a 19-4 record, tops in the conference.  So why is the team ranked 4th in the A-10?  The fact is Rhode Island’s only half respectable out of conference win on the year is Oklahoma State, and just last week the team beat Dayton for its lone decent win in conference.  Therefore, Rhode Island is a classic case of a team that didn’t schedule well out of conference, posted a good record, but then had no meat within the conference to strengthen its resume.  Rhode Island is a tournament team at this point in my book, but is still not a top team in the A-10. 

5. Dayton- The Flyers have seemed to have found a second wind recently.  After starting the season in the Top 25, playing a weak conference schedule barring a tournament in Puerto Rico, and losing 3 of its first 6 conference games, Dayton has rebounded in the past 3 games convincingly to put itself back into the bubble picture.  In the past 2 games specifically, Dayton has beaten Xavier and Charlotte by 25 and 28 respectively at home.  Dayton now has a 17-6 record and also finds itself in the log jam at the top of the A-10 standings, which has 7 teams within 1 game in the loss column.  The difference between a team like Dayton and a team like Richmond is the out of conference schedule.  Dayton, other than the Puerto Rico tournament, where the Flyers went 1-2, did not play any good teams out of conference, which is why the team finds itself 5 in my rankings.

6. Charlotte- The 49ers are a team that is difficult to understand.  With a 19-6 record and an 8-2 record in conference, Charlotte tied for the lead in the A-10 right now.  The thing that separates Charlotte from the teams above is its inconsistency and inability to stay competitive in games at times.  Charlotte has lost 5 of its 6 games by double figures, and the only game it lost by less than double figures was by 9 points to Georgia Tech.  These blowout losses include a 42 point loss to Duke, a 33 point loss to Old Dominion, a 17 point loss to Tennessee, a 12 point loss to Xavier, and tonight, a 28 point loss to Dayton.  These performances are unacceptable for a team who is looking to go to the NCAA tournament, and one cannot tell me that the 7th best team in the Big East isn’t good enough to put up better fights in games than Charlotte has.  Charlotte’s one decent out of conference win was against Louisville, who at the time was completely out of sorts as a team and didn’t look like it could win a game at the time.  Last week, the 49ers won their lone impressive conference game against Temple.  The resume simply isn’t there yet for Charlotte.

7. St. Louis- St. Louis has been the surprise team in the A-10 this year.  A perennial bottomfeeder in the conference, the Billikins now find themselves with a 15-8 record and a 6-3 record in conference, also locked at the low end of the jam at the top of the conference which has 7 teams within 1 game in the loss column.  Although the Billikens are not a contender for the NCAA tournament at this point, with the team’s lone impressive win over Richmond, I applaud the team’s efforts this year to put themselves in the race in the A-10.

8. Duquesne

9. La Salle

10. St. Joseph’s

11. George Washington

12. St. Bonaventure

13. Massachusetts

14. Fordham

Bracketology

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I need to assert how foolish Joe Lunardi has been in his bracketology over the past few weeks.  For those who think that I shouldn’t be criticizing Lunardi because of his past success with regards to correctly picking the teams who make the tournament, please realize that he has NEVER picked the teams correctly halfway through the season.  There is NO way right now to predict or assume what the NCAA committee is considering at this point, especially because the committee isn’t even in session consistently at this point in the season.  Therefore, I have every right to criticize his bracketology because there is no reason to assume he knows who the committee would pick if it were to convene right now.

This week was more of the same from previous weeks in terms of Lunardi’s bracketology (See 1/25/10 “Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology Miscues).  This week, however, Joe Lunardi’s bracketology has become even more one-sided towards the small conference teams (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology).  He put 6 A-10 teams in the tournament.  That’s right, 6.  Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, Charlotte, and Rhode Island.  Even though the highest A-10 seed is Temple at 5, and the rest of the teams are from 7-12 seeds, the fact that 6 A-10 teams are in the tournament is a slap in the face for the rest of college basketball. 

Here is one of my problems.  Temple lost 2 games in 2 weeks, to Charlotte and Richmond, and moved only from a 4 seed to a 5 seed in the tournament.  While I realize that a lot of other teams have lost in the stretch, as it has been a difficult 2 weeks for ranked teams, Temple should have moved down to a 6 seed at least.  Charlotte and Richmond are 2 of the most important games of Temple’s conference schedule, and to lose these games in succession, while also being tied for 3rd place in the A-10 with Richmond and Rhode Island, is not very impressive.  Temple’s last 2 losses were by double digits, and 3 of Temple’s 5 losses have come to non-ranked teams, with another loss coming by 32 points against Kansas.  The Owls’ best win was against Villanova, and Nova was its only victory over a ranked team.  Doesn’t sound anything like a 5 seed resume to me.

On a conference scale, the fact that Lunardi has 6 A-10 teams in the tournament is completely ridiculous.  The conference has 14 teams, and 7 of them are simply atrocious.  Other than the top 7 teams in the conference, the best record among the rest is George Washington with a 12-10 record.  However, GW has a pitiful 2-7 conference record, exemplifying their obviously weak non-conference schedule.  The next best record among the bottom 7 is Duquesne, with a 12-11 record and a 3-6 conference record.  The rest of the teams are under .500.  It really shows who these top 6 teams are beating every week in conference.  For one, the A-10 isn’t even a major conference.  Second, the bottom of the A-10 is so poor that these teams can not even attempt to challenge the top teams.  Therefore, when the top 6 teams in the A-10 have respectable, but not great, non-conference schedules, and then run through conference play with more than half of their games against absolutely terrible teams, it is quite obvious that these teams will have impressive records on the surface.  However, ESPN is specifically PAYING Joe Lunardi to look past the fluff of a decent non-conference schedule and a good record, and he has not done so to this point.

Let’s look specifically at Xavier.  The Musketeers have 7 losses on the season and are a 7 seed in the tournament.  Compare this record to the records of Florida State and Ole Miss, who both have 17-6 records out of the ACC and SEC, respectively.  One would expect teams from major conferences with better records to be seeded higher than a team from a mid-major conference with a worse record, right? It sounds ridiculous, but this is not the case according to Lunardi.  Florida State and Ole Miss are seeded 8th and 9th respectively in the Midwest region.  With 5 losses in the non-conference and the only big non-conference win against Cincinnati, who isn’t even predicted to be a tournament team right now, one cannot even give the argument that Xavier earned its seed because of its non-conference performance.  Xavier’s 7 seed is simply an example of what happens when the most prominent bracketology expect completely overrates an entire conference.

The other 4 teams from the A-10 that made the tournament were Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Charlotte.  At absolute most, 2 of these teams should go to the tournament.  Dayton should not go, because the Flyers have a 16-6 record, with the only true good wins coming against Georgia Tech very early in the season, and a recent big win against Xavier.  They still have not come up with a marquee win like Temple has against Villanova, and do not have a stellar record at this point to rest upon.  Charlotte should also not be in the tournament, because although the 49ers have an 8-1 record in conference, they have a 18-5 record overall with complete drubbings by Duke, Tennessee, Xavier, and Old Dominion.  Their lone good wins were against Lousiville, which was very early when the Cardinals were playing like they wanted to lose, and against Temple recently, who has gone on a 2 game losing streak that has consisted of no offense by the Owls.  Therefore, the 49ers do have a good record, but cannot be considered a tournament team at this point because of their lack of big wins and the prevalence and magnitude of their big losses.  Finally, it can be argued that Richmond does not even deserve a bid to the tournament.  Richmond has an 18-6 record, with impressive wins over Missouri, Mississippi State, Florida, and recently Temple.  However, the Spiders have had several bad losses, such as against Saint Louis, South Carolina, VCU, and William and Mary.  Richmond has a better resume than Charlotte and Dayton because of its big wins, however, and should be a bubble team at this point.  Based upon this thorough evaluation based upon records, big wins, and big losses, I have determined that the A-10 rightly deserves 3, potentially 4 teams in the tournament (Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, and maybe Richmond).

Who should replace these A-10 mid-major teams?  Exactly who Joe Lunardi snubbed in his first four out.  Marquette, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and South Florida were all left out by Lunardi because he put all these mid-majors into the tournament, including Old Dominion, which I did not even mention above.  If these four mid-majors that I mentioned were left out, each of these teams above would make the tournament.  There are no teams in the country that will play tougher conference schedules than Big East teams, and to this point they have not been compensated for their efforts in conference.  It is impressive when a team like Marquette narrowly loses to teams such as Villanova, Syracuse, and West Virginia with wins over Georgetown and Xavier, while still having more opportunities more big wins.  It is more impressive than when a team like Richmond loses to Saint Louis and VCU, with wins over Mizzou and Florida, and almost no opportunities remaining for a big win on the national scale.  Couple that with the fact that Richmond ONLY has 2 less losses than Marquette, in the A-10, and it really makes no sense that Richmond gets in the tournament over Marquette.  Therefore, the fact that many more losses are built in to Big East teams’ schedules, or almost any big conference team’s schedule, needs to be considered when comparing the records of these teams with mid-major’s records. 

Until next time, Joe Lunardi, do your work, look past the records, and evaluate the big wins and losses more thoroughly before you post your next bracketology next Monday.

Non-Major Conference College Basketball Top 10

Because of the interest and controversy that resulted from yesterday’s blog, today I am going to give my Top 10 of Non-Major Conference Teams (meaning teams from outside the ACC, Big East, Big XII, Big 10, SEC, and Pac-10). 

1. Temple- Yes, sorry Cougar and Bulldog fans, but Temple at this point is the best team from outside the 6 major conferences.  With a 17-3 record and impressive wins over Villanova, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall, the Owls have steadily been returning to the prominence of the 1990s under head coach Fran Dunphy.  Built around solid, suffocating defense and hitting timely shots, Temple is a team that no one wants to play.  With a heartbreaking 1 point loss to Georgetown and a 6 point loss in the Philly Hoop Group Classic against St. Johns, Temple has fought hard in each of its games (except for against Kansas), while playing a difficult out of conference schedule as always.  Temple looks to be an Elite 8 quality team at this point.

2. BYU- The Cougars are an impressive 20-1 on the season, with wins over Nebraska, UNLV, and upstart UTEP.  Overall, the Cougars do not have great schedule strength, but are the best team in the Mountain West and are ranked 12th in my most recent poll (1/25/10).  BYU looks to be a team that will escape the 1st round of the tournament, but will not advance far.

3. Gonzaga- This is the one team for which I never seem to understand the hype.  The Bulldogs dominate the WCC, play a few decent out of conference games, and are ranked in the top 10 in the Coaches Poll.  Not the way I see it.  Gonzaga is certainly not as good of a team as Temple, and is very comparable to BYU, but is not a top 10 team in the country.  The Bulldogs have a few decent wins, such as wins over Wisconsin and Cincinnati, and post a 16-3 record.  The three losses were to Michigan State, Wake Forest, and Duke, by 33 points.  Therefore, the Bulldogs belong on this list because of their decent resume and respectable losses, but do not deserve to be a top 10 team in the country.

4. Xavier- The Musketeers have been the premier Atlantic 10 throughout the past decade.  This year, Sean Miller has moved on to coach at Arizona, and Chris Mack has taken over the program.  Xavier has a 13-6 record, but with many impressive losses in a heavy out of conference schedule, including Baylor, Marquette, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Butler, and Temple.  Impressive wins include Cincinnati, Dayton, and Rhode Island.

5. UNLV- The Runnin Rebels again look to surprise the country with an upstart and running style offense.  With a 16-4 record, UNLV has had several impressive wins, including Louisville and New Mexico.  Although the Rebs only have a 4-2 record in conference, their losses were to BYU and Utah, and their other 2 losses were to USC and Kansas State. 

6. Cornell- The lone representative on this list from the Ivy League, the Big Red posts a 16-3 record, with respectable losses to Seton Hall, Syracuse, and Kansas.  Cornell does not have many big wins, but the team’s ability to hang with good teams and consistently hit the 3 point shot will make this team difficult to handle come tournament time.

7. Rhode Island- The 3rd A-10 representative on this list, Rhode Island posts a 16-3 record with their only losses coming against VCU, Temple, and Xavier.  URI has posted impressive wins over Oklahoma State, Boston College, and Providence, and is playing Dayton tonight.

8. UAB- The Blazers are the lone representative from Conference USA on this list, and looks to change the culture in the conference after Memphis has dominated for years.  UAB is 17-2 and is ranked 25th in the AP Poll.

9. New Mexico- The Lobos post an 18-3 record, but really have no true impressive wins, and have lost some very unimpressive games this year.

10. Northern Iowa- Northern Iowa seems to be everyone’s cinderella this year, but for reasons I can’t really understand.  Although UNI posts a 17-2 record, the team has no good wins and lost to 8-11 Depaul and Wichita State.  Not that impressive, but nonetheless is ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll.

Some other teams that did not make the cut:

Old Dominion

Dayton

Siena

Saint Mary’s

Richmond

UTEP

What is the sixth best college basketball conference?

It is a commonly held belief that the top six college basketball conferences are the six major conferences: Big East, ACC, Big 10, Big XII, SEC, and Pac-10.  However, there is one conference that has seemed to go under the radar over the past few years.  This conference consistently has solid teams at the top and gets 2-3 teams in the NCAA tournament each year.

This is the Atlantic 10 conference (A-10).  Teams such as Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and George Washington have had recent success on the national scale.  Considered by many to be a “mid-major,” the A-10 has consistently competed with power conferences.  Sean Miller, now the coach at Arizona, built the Xavier program to be a annual contender.  Fran Dunphy has led Temple to 2 straight A-10 titles and 2 subsequent NCAA tournament appearances.  Coach Dunphy hopes to return the program to the prominence it had under John Chaney.  Dayton has consistently provided quality teams with trouble, and won its opening round game last year against West Virginia of the Big East, which was supposedly the best conference of all time.  George Washington was ranked as high as 6th in the 2005-2006 season  and made three consecutive NCAA tournament appearances from 2004-2005 to 2006-2007.  St. Joseph’s was a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and reached the Elite 8 in the 2003-2004 season.  These are just a few recent highlights of the A-10′s success on the national stage.

This year, the A-10 looks to be as deep as ever.  There may not be the one dominant team, such as  Xavier recently and Temple in the 90s.  However, the conference has 4 potential NCAA tournament contenders, and 10 of the 14 teams appear to be solid this year.  Teams that most years are  bottomfeeders in the conference, such as Richmond and La Salle, are talented this year and have chances, with strong conference play, to make an NCAA tournament run.  Richmond beat #13 ranked Florida Saturday, December 19th and is 8-3 this season.

Another impressive win for the A-10 December 19th was UMass over Memphis.  In addition, Xavier lost by one on the road at Butler, which was decided by a controversial call at the end of regulation which prevented Xavier from having a last second attempt at the win.  The week before, Xavier beat Cincinnati in a rivalry game on the road.  That same week Temple beat third ranked Villanova in a classic Big 5 matchup.  These are only a few examples of A-10 victories over perennial big name schools. 

The A-10 doesn’t just schedule cupcake games during the non-conference; these teams try to schedule strong opponents to prove themselves in big games in front of the whole country.  Temple schedules one of the tougest non-conferences schedules in the country each year.  The rest of the conference follows Temple’s lead.  For example,  this year, Xavier’s non-conference schedule includes Marquette, Baylor, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Wake Forest, LSU, and Butler.  La Salle plays Villanova, Kansas, and Oklahoma State non-conference this year.  Dayton plays Georgia Tech, Villanova, and Kansas State. Finally, Temple plays Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Kansas in the non-conference.  The A-10 has shown that it can handle these types of non-conference schedules and is a viable conference, as 12 of 14 teams are over .500, and 11 of 14 teams are at least 2 games over .500.  The Atlantic 10 Conference is the sixth best conference in the country.

If the A-10 is the sixth best, which major conference is to be knocked from the sixth spot? The Pacific 10 Conference (Pac-10).  The Pac-10 includes classic college basketball powerhouses such as Arizona and UCLA.  However, these two teams currently own the two worst records in the Pac-10 this year.  The Pac-10 only has one ranked team, which is Washington, ranked 24th in the AP Poll.  The rest of the conference has been very inconsistent.  Washington and Washington State are the only two teams who have less than 3 losses.  The best team in the Pac-10 may be USC, who was abysmal in the beginning of the season, but defeated Tennessee Saturday to extend its win streak to three games.

Therefore, with the depth of the A-10 this year, and the lack of firepower in the Pac-10, the A-10 has become the sixth best conference in the country.  This change did not come out of nowhere, however.  The A-10 has steadily improved recently.  The conference now provides substantially competition, produces solid teams and programs, and draws recruits to these strong programs.  College basketball fans need to take another look at power and strength of the A-10.  While it may not be the Big East, it is the farthest thing from a mid-major.

Stay tuned tomorrow for my updated College Basketball Top 25 rankings.