TCU to Join Big East

TCU has accepted an invitation to become the 17th member of the Big East Conference and the 9th football member, beginning in the 2012-2013 season.  The move puts the basketball conference in a very precarious position, as a league with 17 members, with potentially more members to come, makes scheduling, organization, and distribution of revenue very difficult.  By comparison, the 2nd largest basketball conference, the Atlantic 10, has 14 members, and has neither the money nor the national prominence of the Big East.  Such a prominent conference with so many teams will be difficult to manage.  However, like most decisions with regard to conference realignment, it was driven by football and the money that comes with it.

Big East football is struggling, and its position as a major football conference has been in jeopardy.  The BCS evaluation period for the Big East’s automatic bid ends in December 2011, and recent history suggests that the conference is not always worthy of an automatic BCS bid.  An addition of a perennial power like TCU is essential for the Big East to retain its BCS automatic bid and the revenue that comes with it.  The Big East will be able to report TCU’s accomplishments and prominence to the BCS for this evaluation, which will most likely secure the BCS automatic bid until the next evaluation period for the 2016-2017 season.  Also, the addition of the Dallas television market, one of the top 5 markets in the country, is a major benefit for the Big East.

The move to a major conference was important for TCU as well.  By joining the Big East, TCU will have an opportunity to earn a BCS bid every year, without concern about BCS rankings or the image of non-automatic qualifying schools.  In addition, the Horned Frogs’ strength of schedule will improve with the move from the Mountain West to the Big East.  The opportunities that exist for the TCU football program in the Big East were unmatched.  The decision to move to the Big East was a perfect match for both entities, as both were filling a void for the other, and now both are in a much better position athletically and financially moving forward.

Where does the Big East move from here?  With 17 schools for basketball, and 9 schools for football, an addition of at least 1 more school is likely.  The Big East desires at least 10 football schools so that it can lobby to the NCAA, just as the Big XII did, for a conference championship game, even though traditional NCAA regulations require 12 teams for a conference championship game.  Candidates for the 10th football spot include Conference USA teams like UCF, Memphis, and Houston, among others.  Another possible addition for football is Villanova, which is already a basketball school in the Big East with a football program at the FCS level.  The offer was made to Villanova to move the football program to the Big East at the beginning of this season.  The potential move by Villanova is currently being reviewed by the VU Athletic Department, and is being led by Athletic Director Vince Necastro.  The decision will be made by early Spring 2011, according to President Father Donohue.  I have been strongly against the potential move from the FCS to the FBS, for many reasons (See my Letter to the VU Athletic Director and the President, http://bobsportsblog.wordpress.com/2010/09/10/nova-to-the-big-east-in-football/).

How will the Big East change beyond football with the addition of TCU?  First, the scheduling and organization of basketball will change dramatically.  At this point, each conference team plays all other teams at least once, and plays 3 teams twice in the regular season, which fulfills the 18 game conference schedule.  With the addition of TCU, and perhaps more schools, the number of repeat conference games per season will decrease or even disappear, which would lead to more balanced scheduling but greater disparity among the quality of teams in the Big East.  In addition, the format of conference tournaments in all sports will need to be changed significantly.  A 17 team conference will become extremely difficult to schedule efficiently and effectively.

Another concern is the travel for TCU.  The Big East consists of teams primarily on the Atlantic Coast, and primarily  in the North.  Teams like Marquette, Depaul, Notre Dame, and South Florida are the exceptions.  However, none of these teams are nearly as far from “Big East Heartland” as TCU.  TCU joins Depaul as the only other Big East team in the Central Time zone, and joins South Florida as the only other Big East team located below the state of Kentucky.  TCU is the farthest outlier geographically, which will certainly affect sports besides basketball and football in terms of transportation.  It is interesting to note; however, that TCU is actually less of an outlier now than it was during its time in the Mountain West.  While in the Mountain West, TCU was the only team in the Central time zone, and more than half of the teams in the conference were 2 time zones away, in the Pacific time zone.  Therefore, long distance traveling will not be new for TCU athletes, but will certainly affect scheduling for the Big East, which hasn’t had to deal with a school located so far from the rest of the Big East schools.

In terms of competition in athletics, TCU will bring an unique presence to the conference.  In basketball, TCU will struggle in a conference that has been the best in college basketball in recent years.  In baseball, TCU will dominate, and will fight with Louisville for conference supremacy most years.  In football, TCU will finally get a bit of a test in conference play.  It will be very exciting to see how TCU will fare against West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and others in the Big East.  In the same vein, it will be exciting to see the impact TCU will have on the conference on the whole, and if recruiting, quality of play, and general excitement around the conference will change with the addition of the program.

TCU brings a new era and a new opportunity to the Big East with the change in affiliation.  Big East football is thankful for the opportunity given by TCU, and TCU is thankful for the opportunity given by the Big East.

Podcast: BCS and National Championship Preview

Title: BCS and National Championship Preview

A full, in-depth look at the scenarios that can affect the National Championship picture in college football.  I’ll clarify the chaos that exists in the BCS and college football right now.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-17T16_03_28-08_00

College Football Week 10 Preview

Saturday will be one of the most intense, important, and influential days of this year’s college football season.  Two top 10 matchups, multiple other ranked matchups, and a milestone-seeking game for Joe Paterno and Penn State highlights the weekend.

The biggest matchup of the weekend will take place at Baton Rouge this weekend.  Alabama will travel to LSU for a top 10 matchup that will likely propel the winner to be the top ranked 1 loss team.  LSU is arguably the most underrated team in college football.  Analysts constantly knock their offensive capabilities and their coaching.  However, the Tigers are 7-1 in the toughest conference in football, have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and North Carolina, have only lost to #1 Auburn on the road by 7 points.  Alabama remains the top ranked 1 loss team, and looks to further improve their already impressive resume by beating #10 LSU.

MY PREDICTION:  Gut feeling here, and maybe a pick from the heart, but no one is giving LSU a chance, and that is wrong.  Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will do just enough on offense, and the LSU defense will hold strong as it has all year.  Playing in Baton Rouge doesn’t hurt, either.          LSU 24—Alabama 20

Two top 5 teams and the two leaders in the Mountain West will play in Salt Lake City, as TCU travels to play Utah.  TCU recently jumped Boise State in the BCS rankings to climb to 3rd, and Utah jumped 3 spots to 5th last week for no apparent reason after skating by Air Force.  Utah is the most overrated team in college football.  Their notable wins are victories over Pitt (by 3 in overtime at home), Air Force by 5 (TCU beat Air Force 38-7), and a blowout win against Iowa State.  Utah has shown nothing to impress me this season, which is why I have the Utes ranked at #21.  That’s right, 16 spots behind the BCS.

MY PREDICTION:  Utah is exposed at home by a solid TCU team. TCU 34—Utah 20

In Happy Valley, Joe Paterno seeks his 400th victory against Northwestern.  Joe’s 399 wins leads all coaches who have ever coached at the FBS level.  Number 2 all-time, Bobby Bowden, trails him by 22 wins, a full 2 or more seasons of work.  Paterno will cement his resume as the best college football coach of all time with the victory, if he has not done so already.  Paterno will decide on Saturday whether to start sophomore Matt McGloin, who led the Nittany Lions to victory with an impressive performance against Michigan, or Rob Bolden, the freshman who started the season for the Lions and suffered a concussion in the Minnesota game 2 weeks ago.  To me, McGloin gives the Lions the best chance to win, and has been effective in limiting his mistakes in the 2 games he has played.

MY PREDICTION:  No matter the starting quarterback, Penn State will find a way to win on Saturday.  The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium will be electric, the running game will continue to improve, and the defense will play an inspired effort to give JoePa his 400th win and a slight upset against upstart, 6-2 Northwestern.  Penn State 27— Northwestern 23

Other Notable Games: (And my Predictions)

#1 Oregon (42)—Washington (17)

#2 Auburn (59)—Chattanooga (3)

#4 Boise State (42)—Hawaii (20)

#12 Stanford (31)–#15 Arizona (27)

#17 Oklahoma State (31)—#21 Baylor (28)

#18 Arkansas (38)—#19 South Carolina (24)

Illinois (30)—Michigan (28)

Miami (35)—Maryland (24)

Texas (19)—Kansas State (17)

Podcast: 10/20 Sports Podcast

Title: 10/20 Sports Podcast

In this Bob Long’s Sports Podcast, Chris and I discuss many issues in sports, including the new BCS rankings, the NHL power rankings, and the issues of headshots and other illegal hits in the NFL.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-10-20T14_57_18-07_00

Hold Your Horses

Last night, Boise State defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies 33-30 at FedEx Field in Washington D.C.  The game had huge implications for the National Championship picture, as Boise State has only 1 more game that should realistically give the Broncos any trouble.  In 2 weeks, Oregon State will travel to the Smurf Turf to face Boise State in what will be Boise’s last BCS school matchup until potentially the bowl game.  Most assume this game to be a victory for Boise, who will face an Oregon State team who will most likely be unranked after this weekend’s loss to TCU.

Therefore, I will write this blog under the assumption that Boise State will go undefeated in the regular season.  Should the Broncos earn a spot in the BCS National Championship Game if they do so?  Part of me feels bad saying this, but absolutely not.  The Broncos will not have done nearly enough to put together a compelling resume that would top a 1 loss or even a 2 loss SEC, Big XII, or Big Ten team.

The big issue for me is about strength of schedule.  It is a exaggerated example, but a middle of the road college football team playing the best high school teams would still hammer the competition and post an undefeated record.  While the WAC isn’t filled with high school teams, it is one of the lesser conferences in the country, and the fact that Boise State does (should) have 8 easy games on the schedule each year makes it difficult for me to give the team credit as a National Championship contender.

For the purposes of this post I will assume that Ohio State loses 1 game this season and still wins the Big Ten.  I will also assume that Alabama loses one game and still wins the SEC.  Finally, I will assume that Boise State will be the lone undefeated school this season.  Which of those teams should go to the National Championship? I would immediately eliminate Boise State.  With an undefeated season, Boise State will have 2 solid wins: Virginia Tech and Oregon State, with the Virginia Tech game considered the only quality win.  Ohio State, on the other hand (judging by the schedule), with 1 loss, would have 4-5 quality wins, and even more solid wins.  Alabama would have 6 quality wins and 9 solid wins even with one loss.  The simple fact is that Boise State does not have to deal with the week-in week-out grind that BCS conference teams do.

However, some have argued that Boise State proved that it could beat a top 10 team, so therefore should be put in the National Championship Game because they can “beat anyone.”  These people are either forgetting or ignoring the fact that bringing the best performance in 1 or 2 weeks is completely different than needing to bring it 9 or 10 times a season like an Alabama or Ohio State does.  Boise State has shown the ability to come out and play well in big games over the past few years.  They have shocked BCS schools.  However, the difference between Boise and these other schools is the fact that Boise can cruise through 75% of their season in order to prepare for one game on the schedule.  Alabama can’t do that.  If the Tide looked ahead 3 weeks to a game against Florida, then the team would get beat by either Penn State or Arkansas.  If the Tide came out flat in either of these games, the team would lose.  That is the big difference.  Boise State can and has cruised through past games.

Last season, the Broncos beat a very mediocre Nevada team 44-33.  After Boise took an early lead, Nevada staged a 2nd half comeback that fell just short, and included a stretch of the game where Boise could not stop the Nevada offense.  In addition, Boise played a game against Louisiana Tech in which the Broncos won 45-35.  Finally, Fresno State posed a challenge to Boise, as the Bulldog offense scored 34 points on the Bronco defense.  33 points, 34 points, and 35 points.  That is the amount of points that the Bronco defense gave up in 3 regular season games against opponents that could not be considering anything but mediocre.  However, in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU, Boise State won 17-10 (in Andy Dalton’s worst performance of his career as TCU quarterback).  Now why did Boise’s defense give up 33, 34, and 35 points to WAC opponents, and only 10 to then undefeated TCU?  Either, these mediocre WAC teams have much better offenses than top 10 ranked TCU, or more reasonably, Boise State cruised through these regular season games even though they came out flat, and thereby were incredibly fresh when the bowl game came.

The big question is, how would Boise State have done against LSU, Georgia, and Florida if the Broncos played these teams instead of the WAC teams mentioned above?  Boise State came out very flat in these games, and cruised through to victory, but if the Broncos played top teams in these weeks, there is no way they would go undefeated.  In fact, I would be surprised if the Broncos won 2 of these 3 games against the SEC teams listed above.  Therefore, while Boise State is able to win its bowl games, and win the 1 big regular season game each year, there is no way to know or assume that Boise State could beat Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia in the regular season and then still come out fresh for a big non-conference game and a bowl game.  Assuming this and putting the Broncos in the National Championship Game under such an assumption is not fair to a 1 loss team out of the Big Ten or SEC, because the Broncos can come out flat in many games under their current schedule and still go undefeated.

Alabama, on the other hand, rarely had the option to come out flat.  Did the Tide come out flat when they beat Virginia Tech by 10 points in the opener last season?  Were they flat when they beat Ryan Mallett and the powerful Arkansas offense 35-7?  The closest the Tide came to playing flat was the Tennessee game, which was decided by a blocked field goal by the Alabama special teams.  However, Alabama had to bring it every week, and did so to earn themselves an undefeated season and a spot in the National Championship Game.

The big issue when deciding who will go the the National Championship Game is which teams had the best regular season, and the criteria go beyond solely record.  The criteria include record, strength of schedule, style points, etc.  If Boise State goes undefeated like last year, but only plays 1 or 2 quality opponents, it is extremely difficult to justify their schedule over a 1 loss SEC team or Big Ten team.  In addition, when the defense gives up 30+ points in multiple games to WAC opponents, it becomes even more difficult to justify this team’s success over a 1 loss BCS school, who didn’t have the opportunity to look past 8 conference games a year and only prepare for the big games.  As I said above, assuming that Boise State would go undefeated in the SEC, especially considering the Broncos struggles early in the game at times with WAC teams, and their struggles on defense with WAC teams, is simply not logical, and is unfair to the BCS conference teams.

I do feel bad that Boise State can not do too much about the scheduling problem that they have, and wish that things could change.  However, I am not here, and the BCS Committee is not here, to play favorites or simply give the proverbial “David” a chance.  It is a shame for Boise, but even though the team won all its games, and did everything it could, I can’t with a clear conscience put the team in the BCS National Championship Game simply because of this.  I can’t put them in when a 1 loss Ohio State or Alabama clearly has a more solid schedule strength, has more solid wins, and has cruised through and played less games flat than Boise.  I just can’t.  It is a shame for Boise, but until they join a BCS conference, or a playoff system is instituted, there is no way to know and would be wrong to assume that Boise can be a top tier team over the course of a full season, which is necessary to earn a spot in the National Championship Game.

College Football Week 1 Finale

The first weekend of the 2010 college football season will close with a much-anticipated Labor Day matchup.  Boise State will travel over 2,000 miles across the country, and Virginia Tech will travel under 300 miles to “neutral” site FedEx Field, home of the Washington Redskins.  Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in the country (Boise #3, VA Tech #10), and this game will have potential National Championship implications for both teams.  If Boise State loses, their National Title hopes will be completely shred.  If Virginia Tech loses, it would very likely end their championship hopes as well, but the Hokies have a more difficult schedule with which to justify a 1 loss season.  However, at this point, it is very likely that a loss for either team will end National Championship hopes.  This game is and will be one of the most hyped and most anticipated games all season.  Which team will be able to take a early step forward over the rest of the field with a marquee win in week 1?

MY PREDICTION:  Virginia Tech will establish itself early as a National Championship contender with a emphatic win tonight.  I see a 10-14 point win tonight for the Hokies.  Virginia Tech has arguably the best offense it has ever had under long-tenured head coach Frank Beamer.  The offense is led by Senior Tyrod Taylor, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in college football, and a potential Heisman candidate.  Last season, Taylor threw for 2311 yards and ran for 370 yards.  He had 18 touchdowns last season (13 throwing, 5 rushing).  Taylor is complemented in the backfield by Sophomore Ryan Williams, a back that ran for 1655 yards last season and 21 touchdowns.  He took the ACC by storm last season as a freshman, and was unstoppable at many points last season.  Williams would be considered a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy as well if not for teammate Darren Evans, with whom Williams shares the backfield.  Darren Evans is a Junior back that was hurt for all of the 2009 season, which allowed Ryan Williams to break out.  The season before, however, Evans ran for 1265 yards and 11 touchdowns, and was one of the most dominant running backs in college football.  This combination of a 2 running back system headed by two Heisman caliber players and a quarterback that is arguably the most dynamic in college football will make the Virginia Tech offense a juggernaut this season, a big part of the reason I picked Virginia Tech to go undefeated and reach the BCS National Championship Game.

The Virginia Tech defense is strong as well.  While the team needs to replace some big names on defense, Virginia Tech is a program that consistently produces strong defenses, even with the inevitable loss of some key defensive pieces each year.  Bud Foster is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, and has been for a long time.  Finally, Virginia Tech always excels in special teams (Beamer Ball), and I expect that to be no different this year.  With the Hokies, offense is always the question, and with the offense being the strong point this year for Virginia Tech, I see Virginia Tech winning tonight fairly handily over Boise State, putting the team in position to take the momentum through ACC play and into the BCS National Championship Game with an undefeated record.

For Boise State, I think this game will bring the team and the attention it has been given back to Earth.  Boise State is a good team, no doubt about it, but is not the 3rd best team in the country.  Last year, the team went undefeated and was led by Kellen Moore.  Think about it, though.  The Broncos played one quality team during the regular season, which was Oregon.  It was an impressive win, but it was Oregon’s first game under Chip Kelly, and the team really did not find its groove until a few weeks into the season, at which point the team played very impressive football.  Would Boise have won the game if it was played in say, Week 6?  There is no way to know, but the point is that the win should be taken with a grain of salt.  The other big win for the year was the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU.  The Broncos beat the Horned Frogs 17-10, but in very unimpressive fashion.  At some points the game was tough to watch.  Neither team could get any consistent offense or rhythm, and the Broncos were salvaged by a poor performance in the big game by TCU quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw 3 interceptions, 2 of which could be considered unforced.  It isn’t Boise’s fault that the BCS didn’t pair the team with a BCS school (I personally thought that was a weasel move by the BCS to avoid controversy) but I still need to so Boise win more big games over big opponents before I consider the team a legitimate National Championship contender each year. The good thing is that Boise has given itself an opportunity to do so this season, as the team will play Virginia Tech tonight and Oregon State in 2 weeks.  In addition, Boise State joined the Mountain West, which in the future years will give the team more credibility in terms of schedule strength.

However, until Boise State proves me wrong, I think the team has work to do before it is a true championship contender.  The team is simply not big enough, fast enough, or athletic enough to hang with what I believe is the 2nd best team in the country.  I predict that Virginia Tech will win tonight 31-17.

Dominoes Falling in College Football Conferences: Big XII on the Short End

Today, two big shifts occurred in college football.  The supposed apocalypse of the college football conference landscape appears to be happening.  Now the only question is who will be left out of the party, and where teams will land at the end of the roulette.  Colorado officially accepted a bid to become a member of the Pac 10 Conference.  Nebraska has reportedly accepted an invitation to become a member of the Big Ten Conference, and a statement is expected to be released on Friday.

Therefore, the Big XII Conference, known to be the 2nd best conference in football in recent years, may cease to exist in the very near future.  The conference has already lost 2 teams (Nebraska and Colorado) and is now left with 10.  I also expect that Missouri, which is very unhappy with the treatment it has received with regard to revenue sharing in the Big XII, will bolt for the Big Ten very soon.  That leaves a conference that has already struggled with revenue compared to nearby conferences such as the Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC, with only 9 teams.  So what could the conference do to restore itself?  Pick up more teams? Not likely.  The Mountain West Conference, with teams such as Utah, TCU, and BYU, would be the hotbed from which to draw potential universities.  However, the problem with this solution is that the Mountain West is also trying to expand, and has reportedly offered a bid to Boise State from the WAC.  Therefore, the Mountain West is lobbying hard to expand its conference so that the conference isn’t looted for its talent like the Big XII is now.

However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mountain West is raided for its talent, and Boise State does not join.  Where will those teams go?  Does one really think that Boise (from the WAC), Utah, or BYU will go to the Big XII?  Certainly not based upon location compared to the Pac 10, and certainly not based upon revenue as compared to the Pac 10.  Therefore, the only team that could join the Big XII from the Mountain West would most likely be TCU.

So the best case scenario for the Big XII is that the conference loses the three teams that are almost certain to leave (Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri), and then picks up TCU from the Mountain West.  10 teams isn’t a terrible number, and I believe the conference would be very happy with this result.  However, the one key factor that has yet to be discussed is the influence of the SEC.  The SEC has reportedly had interest and contact with Texas and Texas A&M about a possible conference change.  The Big Ten has also had significant interest in Texas.  Then there is Oklahoma, which is also a potential target for the SEC.  If one of these three powerhouses leaves the Big XII (Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M), then most likely all will look to find new homes, and this would spell doom and the end of the Big XII Conference as we know it.

Therefore, to college football fans who do not quite have the whole picture in terms of the conference shifting, here is a cliffnotes version of what is most important.  Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri will leave.  The Big XII will attempt to acquire teams like TCU from the Mountain West to offset the departure of these three schools, but this is not what is important.  The Big XII could continue to thrive under 9 teams or even 8 teams, and the addition of a Mountain West school is not necessary.  What is essential for the future is the conference is the decision of these three teams; Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  These three teams are the mainstays of the conference, and Texas has major rivalries with both Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  If one of these three teams leaves the Big XII, at least one of the other two will follow, which will leave the conference depleted and will cause the third and final team to leave.  If this happens, this will end the confernece as we know it.  Therefore, when analyzing the conference shifts, and the future of the Big XII, worry not about Colorado or Nebraska, or whether the conference can entice TCU, but worry about what will happen to Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  Those three universities hold the conference in the palms of their hands at this point, and can drop it at any point they wish.

Big Ten Expansion…and More?

The most pressing issue cascading through the  college football landscape is that of conference expansion.  Leading the charge for expansion is the Big 10 Conference, whose last expansion occurred in 1989 when Penn State accepted an invitation to join the conference.  The Nittany Lions gave up their then independent status in football, and left the Atlantic 10 Conference in the other sports to join the Big Ten.

In 2010, the potential expansion again revolves around an indepedent football school.  Notre Dame, under new head coach Brian Kelly, has reportedly been invited to join the conference and give up its indepedent status in football and its Big East affiliation in basketball and other sports.  Coach Kelly has asserted that he would like the school to remain independent because of the ability to be a “national” program, and the ability to play any team it wants without restrictions.  It may be financially beneficial to remain independent as well, as the school has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game in the waiting if the team finishes in the top 8 in the Final BCS Standings.  In addition, the Fighting Irish have a lucrative network TV contract with NBC, which provides a lot of revenue for the school and most likely could not be matched by that of a conference team. 

However, if there were a conference that could provide revenue that rivals what Notre Dame makes now, it would be the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has lucrative contracts with both the ESPN Family of Networks and its own network, the Big Ten Network.  But the equal distribution of revenue, which potentially attracts teams such as Missouri from the Big XII to the Big Ten, may dissuade teams such as Notre Dame.  If the revenue needs to be shared equally with as many as 15 other teams, Notre Dame may be unable to acquire as much revenue within the Big Ten that it does now.  Certainly there are many pro’s and con’s for Notre Dame to consider as the conference expansion train appears to be rolling by very quickly.

Speaking of the Missouri Tigers, that program is also considering moving from the Big XII to the Big Ten.  In addition, the Big Ten has reportedly invited Nebraska to join.  Rumors have circulated that the Big Ten is a potential suitor for Texas, as well as Oklahoma, but Nebraska and Missouri make the most sense geographically and have generated the most talk of expansion.  Both member programs of the Red River Rivalry have remained silent on the issue to this point.  As stated, Missouri’s main interest in the Big Ten stems from the fact that the Big XII does not share revenue equally, and as a result the program does not receive as much TV revenue as Texas or Oklahoma.  Nebraska is a logical choice geographically for the Big Ten, which is the likely reason for that invitation.

The Big East did not escape unscathed from the long reach of the Big Ten.  Invitations have been reportedly extended to Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rutgers.  These schools would give the Big Ten an increased East Coast presence, as at this point only Penn State gives the conference such diversability. 

With the extension of so many invitations to the conference, the Big Ten could include up to 16 teams within a few years.  If one is doing the math, this expansion could spell the doom of the Big East and Big XII conferences.  The Big East could lose 4 schools to the Big Ten, including Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, and Notre Dame (in every sport but football).  At this point the Big East Conference would only include football schools Connecticut, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida.  That is it.  With schools such as Villanova and Georgetown competing at the FCS level, and schools such as St. Johns and Marquette which don’t have football programs at all, the conference could collapse upon itself because of the lack of strength and number from the football programs.  This could lead to a collapse of the entire conference as a whole, and the demise of the overall best college basketball conference since the most recent expansion before the 2005-2006 season.

The Big XII could face a similar fate.  With rumors of Colorado moving to the Pac-10, and the possibility of Texas and Oklahoma moving to either the Pac-10 or the SEC, the Big XII could lose up to 6 of its premier programs, leaving only the likes of Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, among others.  The Big XII could potentially wither as the Big East could due to the domino effect started by the Big Ten.

So what does this all mean? Could a situation really occur in which the Big Ten could include as many as 16 teams, Notre Dame could no longer be independent, and there could only be 4 major “super-conferences,” with the destruction of the Big XII and the Big East?  Will the history of rivalries such as Pittsburgh and West Virginia (the Backyard Brawl), Texas and Oklahoma (the Red River Rivalry), and Texas and Texas A&M, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (Bedlam), become traditions of the past?  These potential realities could all be realized with the right collapse of the dominoes in the conference expansion carousel. 

Is it good for football?  I tend to think no, as the beauty and excitement of rivalries will be compromised.  Sure, we will have 4 superconferences, but where will the excitement come from?  How will the Big Ten be so exciting when teams don’t even play half the teams in their conference?  How can a true conference champion be crowned with the possibility of 3 undefeated teams in a conference?  The only positive of this change to 4 superconferences would be the potential inclusion of teams such as Boise State and TCU in a conference like the Pac-10.  With this improvement, the 4 year debate about how to appropriately reward teams like Boise State, TCU, and Utah with their weak regular season schedules will end.  All these teams will be included in power conferences, and finally will need to prove themselves week in and week out.

With all these possibilities for conference expansion, it is apparant that there will be a major shift of some kind in the college football landscape.  Bob Long’s Sports Blog will follow the development every step of the way and keep you readers updates with every phase of the massive transition as the details emerge.

The Fiesta Bowl

I am going to tell this one like it is.  The BCS tried to save itself by putting Boise State and TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.  Of the 10 teams in the BCS bowl games, Boise and TCU were the only teams that were from non-BCS conferences.  Such teams have had mixed results in the past.  Boise State beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Hawaii got crushed by Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and Utah beat Alabama handily in the 2009 Sugar Bowl. 

Therefore, going into the 2009 BCS Bowl season, the non-BCS conferences were 2-1 in the last 3 BCS bowl appearances.  In each of these games, the non-BCS conference team was undefeated, but did not get to play for a National Championship.  This trend has led many to ratchet up the debate and controversy about whether the current BCS postseason system is fair and justified in its treatment of non-BCS conference schools.  There has been increased support of a playoff system (I myself have designed and advocated a 12 team playoff system.  See December 2nd, “Why College Football Needs a Playoff System…and Why an 8 Team System is not the Answer”). 

When this year’s BCS selections were made, and there were two non-BCS conference schools that were undefeated, I knew those BCS weasels were going to match the two up in the same bowl game.  Basically, this move was to save the BCS from any unnecessary criticism.  If either TCU or Boise State had beaten a major conference school in a bowl game, the fans would be criticizing the BCS, calling for a playoff system, and calling for a split National Championship.  The same criticism occurred in the 2006-2007 and the 2008-2009 season after BCS bowl victories by Boise State and Utah, respectively.

So, what to do to avoid any criticism? Put them both in the Fiesta Bowl.  The game could not have gone any better for the BCS, and it makes me sick.  It was a very low scoring game, so the fans do not know whether or not the defenses were very good, or if the offenses were terrible and could not hang with the top conference teams.  In addition, because the game was very close, there won’t be much controversy about a split National Championship.  For example, if TCU won by 20 or more, some people would argued that the Horned Frogs deserved a chance to play in the National Championship over Texas who somewhat snuck in with an unimpressive victory over Nebraska.  However, since the game was close, and neither team looked very stellar, the BCS avoided a potentially damaging situation by putting TCU and Boise State in the same bowl game.   

The fans will never really know how good either of these teams are, and that is the true shame of the whole situation.  Contrary to the beliefs of the committee members of the BCS, the fans’ top priority is not to criticize the system.  The fans simply want to see good football games, reward the best teams, and be respected as fans.  However, the BCS did not respect the fans in this instance, but instead duped the fans out of two good games.  The BCS duped the fans and the rest of college football out of learning how good TCU and Boise really were.  If the BCS really was trying to be fair and was confident in the system, the committee would have no problem letting the non-BCS qualifiers play against the big name teams.  Now do I think TCU or Boise State could have hung with, say, Ohio State?  I really don’t know, and that is the point.  The only way to find out how good one of these teams are is to place them against a perennial powerhouse.  If they get crushed, then they get crushed, but at least we know how good the teams really were.  Now all we know is that Boise State can beat the next best non-BCS conference team.  Great, there is one of those teams each year.  But what fans do not always get to see is the small, non-BCS team play against the big name teams.  That is why everyone has loved watching those games over the past 3 years.

Until the BCS is either ousted or its ideology is changed significantly, college football fans will continue to see the smaller teams like Boise State get the raw deal so that the BCS will not have to change. It is extremely frustrating, and the only way to change the way things are run is to take active steps to change the system.

The Mountain West?

The Mountain West has 5 teams playing in bowl games this season:  Wyoming, BYU, Utah, Air Force, and TCU.  The Mountain West has been the conference that many people think is simply the best mid-major conference, but not competitive on the national scale.  TCU’s undefeated record has been called out by many college football fans on account of little or no competition.  However, before someone passes judgement on the talent of the Mountain West, one must look at the success the conference in the recent bowl games.  Wyoming played the first bowl game of the season and shockingly defeated Fresno State, who was highly favored in the game.  Then BYU crushed Oregon State 44-20.  Finally, last night, Utah defeated Cal, 37-27 in a virtual home game for Cal at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium.

Air Force will play Houston December 31st at 12 PM.  TCU will close the Mountain West bowl season January 4th against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.  If the Mountain West wins at least one of its last two games, it would be time to consider the possibility that the Mountain West in better than at least one of the major conferences.  The Mountain West has arguably 3 upsets already, and Air Force looks to be an underdog against Houston.  TCU will be the lone Mountain West team that is favored in its bowl game, but that is only because the BCS tried to save itself by pairing the two non-BCS conference teams against each other, TCU and Boise State.  If TCU played any other team in one of the BCS bowls, the Horned Frogs would be underdogs.  Therefore, one more bowl win by the Mountain West would put the conference at 4-1 in the bowl season with at least three upsets.  With this postseason resume, the Mountain West would deserve consideration as one of the top 6 conferences in the country. 

Compare the Mountain West with the Pac-10, which is currently 0-2 in the bowl season with two losses to Mountain West teams.  Cal lost to Utah by 10, and Oregon State lost to BYU by 24.  As mentioned, both Mountain West winners were underdogs in the games, but these teams beat two Pac-10 opponents by a combined 34 points.  There is certainly something to be said for that.  The Pac-10 was extremely down this year, as USC finished 5th in conference.  The Pac-10 struggled mightily as a conference on defense this year, and that weakness was exposed by Utah and BYU. 

The Pac-10 has 5 remaining bowl games.  USC will play Boston College, UCLA will play Temple, Stanford will play Oklahoma, Arizona will play Nebraska, and Oregon will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl Game.  The Pac-10 would be doing well if it went 3-2 in these five games, and it is probable that the conference will go under .500 for its remaining games.  USC and Boston College is a toss up, but I think USC will win that game.  UCLA v. Temple will be a good game, but I think Temple will win that game.  Stanford has no defense, and that will hurt the Cardinal against Oklahoma.  Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the country, and Arizona will have trouble moving the ball against the best defense it has seen this year.  Oregon has not played a defense as strong as Ohio State this year, but when Oregon played Boise State, granted it was early in the season, it Duck offense could not move the ball well against the Bronco defense. 

So even if the conference went 3-2 in its remaining games, which would be arguably the best case scenario, that would only put the Pac-10 at 3-4 for the bowl season.  That would mean that the Pac-10 would have less wins in 7 games than the Mountain West does in 5.  Couple that with the fact that the Mountain West gave the Pac-10 2 of its losses, the games in which both Mountain West teams were underdogs, and one must consider the possibility that the Mountain West is a better football conference than the Pac-10.