Podcast: BCS and National Championship Preview

Title: BCS and National Championship Preview

A full, in-depth look at the scenarios that can affect the National Championship picture in college football.  I’ll clarify the chaos that exists in the BCS and college football right now.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-17T16_03_28-08_00

Podcast: College Basketball 2010 Preview

Title: College Basketball 2010 Preview

This Bob Long’s Sports Podcast includes a full preview of College Basketball, from conference winners, to surprise teams, to who you can expect to see at the top come March. With Chris Pierangeli.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-10T21_34_58-08_00

Utah to Join the Pac 10

BREAKING NEWS:  Today, Utah officially accepted a bid to become the 12th member of the Pac 10 Conference, joining Colorado as the two teams who have joined the Pac 10 this offseason.  Utah was offered a spot in the conference after Big XII powers Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State unanimously decided to remain in the Big XII.  With 12 teams, the Pac 10 now has the authority to institute a conference championship game, which the conference has desired for many years.  The conference swapping that has been rampant over the past few weeks will undoubtedly slow down now that most teams have settled on their new or past conferences, but if more developments arise, for example, in the Big Ten or Big East, Bob Long’s Sports Blog will have it covered.

College Football Conference Update

Yesterday, the big 5 from the Big XII (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) declared that they would all remain with the Big XII and not pursue other conference affiliations.  This declaration leaves the Big XII with 10 teams, the Big Ten with 12 teams, and the Pac 10 with 11 teams.  Expansion seems to have been abated temporarily, but the wheel will surely begin turning again soon, even if not with the same velocity.

The Pac 10 is not satisfied.  The conference was a few hours away from a “Super-Conference” with teams such as Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, among others.  The conference was a few hours away from taking a dominant foothold in college football from the Pacific to the Great Plains.  A few hours away from becoming the richest conference in the history of college football, with the combined effect of the big programs added and the launch of a conference television network.  The network is still in the works, and may be released soon, but it will not have the momentum and power that it would have had if the Big XII powers had joined the Pac 10.

What is next for the Pac 10?  Most likely, the conference will pursue a 12th team so that the conference can have a championship game.  The most likely candidate is Utah from the Mountain West.  However, the Pac 1o, more than any conference, was disappointed in the result of the expansion process, and lost the most yesterday afternoon.

The Big XII was the big winner from the expansion.  It seems illogical to say that the Big XII is the winner, considering the conference lost 2 teams, but the conference is a winner because it is still standing.  Hours before the top teams announced that they would stay in the Big XII, it looked as if the conference would lose 2 of the top 10 all-time programs (Texas and Oklahoma), along with many other notable programs, and thereby dissolve as a whole.  However, since the big programs declared their allegiance in the Big XII, the conference will stay afloat- barring some unforeseen last-minute changes.  In addition, the conference will remain the second best in the country in my opinion, and the conference teams will be more profitable than in the past, due to similar total revenues and less teams with which to share it. 

The Texas Longhorns were the big winners in terms of the individual programs.  Texas had two conferences catering to their wants, and the program utilized this leverage to the fullest advantage.  Texas forced Big XII commissioner Dan Beebe’s hand to the point that he allowed Texas to retain its revenue-sharing deal within the conference (which rendered the program extremely profitable relative to the rest of the conference), and he opened the door for Texas to launch its own television network, which will exponentially increase the program’s revenue.

The Big Ten was also a winner from the whole process, as the conference added Nebraska, a prestigious program that will almost certainly be ranked in the top 10 to begin next season.  In addition, with 12 teams, the conference added the necessary component through which to institute a conference championship, which the Big Ten has been seeking for years.

The Big East is a conference that is safe for now, but is certainly not out of the water.  The Big Ten appears to be satisfied with 12 teams at this point, but if it decides to add as many as 4 more teams, the Big East could be in trouble, as the Big Ten could undoubtedly seek programs such as Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse, among others.  The Big Ten has also reportedly targeted Notre Dame, but the loss of the Irish would not be a big problem for the survival of the Big East.  The focus now will shift from the Big XII to the Big East, and the Big East will be on the defensive.  More to come as more develops.

Dominoes Falling in College Football Conferences: Big XII on the Short End

Today, two big shifts occurred in college football.  The supposed apocalypse of the college football conference landscape appears to be happening.  Now the only question is who will be left out of the party, and where teams will land at the end of the roulette.  Colorado officially accepted a bid to become a member of the Pac 10 Conference.  Nebraska has reportedly accepted an invitation to become a member of the Big Ten Conference, and a statement is expected to be released on Friday.

Therefore, the Big XII Conference, known to be the 2nd best conference in football in recent years, may cease to exist in the very near future.  The conference has already lost 2 teams (Nebraska and Colorado) and is now left with 10.  I also expect that Missouri, which is very unhappy with the treatment it has received with regard to revenue sharing in the Big XII, will bolt for the Big Ten very soon.  That leaves a conference that has already struggled with revenue compared to nearby conferences such as the Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC, with only 9 teams.  So what could the conference do to restore itself?  Pick up more teams? Not likely.  The Mountain West Conference, with teams such as Utah, TCU, and BYU, would be the hotbed from which to draw potential universities.  However, the problem with this solution is that the Mountain West is also trying to expand, and has reportedly offered a bid to Boise State from the WAC.  Therefore, the Mountain West is lobbying hard to expand its conference so that the conference isn’t looted for its talent like the Big XII is now.

However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mountain West is raided for its talent, and Boise State does not join.  Where will those teams go?  Does one really think that Boise (from the WAC), Utah, or BYU will go to the Big XII?  Certainly not based upon location compared to the Pac 10, and certainly not based upon revenue as compared to the Pac 10.  Therefore, the only team that could join the Big XII from the Mountain West would most likely be TCU.

So the best case scenario for the Big XII is that the conference loses the three teams that are almost certain to leave (Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri), and then picks up TCU from the Mountain West.  10 teams isn’t a terrible number, and I believe the conference would be very happy with this result.  However, the one key factor that has yet to be discussed is the influence of the SEC.  The SEC has reportedly had interest and contact with Texas and Texas A&M about a possible conference change.  The Big Ten has also had significant interest in Texas.  Then there is Oklahoma, which is also a potential target for the SEC.  If one of these three powerhouses leaves the Big XII (Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M), then most likely all will look to find new homes, and this would spell doom and the end of the Big XII Conference as we know it.

Therefore, to college football fans who do not quite have the whole picture in terms of the conference shifting, here is a cliffnotes version of what is most important.  Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri will leave.  The Big XII will attempt to acquire teams like TCU from the Mountain West to offset the departure of these three schools, but this is not what is important.  The Big XII could continue to thrive under 9 teams or even 8 teams, and the addition of a Mountain West school is not necessary.  What is essential for the future is the conference is the decision of these three teams; Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  These three teams are the mainstays of the conference, and Texas has major rivalries with both Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  If one of these three teams leaves the Big XII, at least one of the other two will follow, which will leave the conference depleted and will cause the third and final team to leave.  If this happens, this will end the confernece as we know it.  Therefore, when analyzing the conference shifts, and the future of the Big XII, worry not about Colorado or Nebraska, or whether the conference can entice TCU, but worry about what will happen to Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  Those three universities hold the conference in the palms of their hands at this point, and can drop it at any point they wish.

Big Ten Expansion…and More?

The most pressing issue cascading through the  college football landscape is that of conference expansion.  Leading the charge for expansion is the Big 10 Conference, whose last expansion occurred in 1989 when Penn State accepted an invitation to join the conference.  The Nittany Lions gave up their then independent status in football, and left the Atlantic 10 Conference in the other sports to join the Big Ten.

In 2010, the potential expansion again revolves around an indepedent football school.  Notre Dame, under new head coach Brian Kelly, has reportedly been invited to join the conference and give up its indepedent status in football and its Big East affiliation in basketball and other sports.  Coach Kelly has asserted that he would like the school to remain independent because of the ability to be a “national” program, and the ability to play any team it wants without restrictions.  It may be financially beneficial to remain independent as well, as the school has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game in the waiting if the team finishes in the top 8 in the Final BCS Standings.  In addition, the Fighting Irish have a lucrative network TV contract with NBC, which provides a lot of revenue for the school and most likely could not be matched by that of a conference team. 

However, if there were a conference that could provide revenue that rivals what Notre Dame makes now, it would be the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has lucrative contracts with both the ESPN Family of Networks and its own network, the Big Ten Network.  But the equal distribution of revenue, which potentially attracts teams such as Missouri from the Big XII to the Big Ten, may dissuade teams such as Notre Dame.  If the revenue needs to be shared equally with as many as 15 other teams, Notre Dame may be unable to acquire as much revenue within the Big Ten that it does now.  Certainly there are many pro’s and con’s for Notre Dame to consider as the conference expansion train appears to be rolling by very quickly.

Speaking of the Missouri Tigers, that program is also considering moving from the Big XII to the Big Ten.  In addition, the Big Ten has reportedly invited Nebraska to join.  Rumors have circulated that the Big Ten is a potential suitor for Texas, as well as Oklahoma, but Nebraska and Missouri make the most sense geographically and have generated the most talk of expansion.  Both member programs of the Red River Rivalry have remained silent on the issue to this point.  As stated, Missouri’s main interest in the Big Ten stems from the fact that the Big XII does not share revenue equally, and as a result the program does not receive as much TV revenue as Texas or Oklahoma.  Nebraska is a logical choice geographically for the Big Ten, which is the likely reason for that invitation.

The Big East did not escape unscathed from the long reach of the Big Ten.  Invitations have been reportedly extended to Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rutgers.  These schools would give the Big Ten an increased East Coast presence, as at this point only Penn State gives the conference such diversability. 

With the extension of so many invitations to the conference, the Big Ten could include up to 16 teams within a few years.  If one is doing the math, this expansion could spell the doom of the Big East and Big XII conferences.  The Big East could lose 4 schools to the Big Ten, including Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, and Notre Dame (in every sport but football).  At this point the Big East Conference would only include football schools Connecticut, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida.  That is it.  With schools such as Villanova and Georgetown competing at the FCS level, and schools such as St. Johns and Marquette which don’t have football programs at all, the conference could collapse upon itself because of the lack of strength and number from the football programs.  This could lead to a collapse of the entire conference as a whole, and the demise of the overall best college basketball conference since the most recent expansion before the 2005-2006 season.

The Big XII could face a similar fate.  With rumors of Colorado moving to the Pac-10, and the possibility of Texas and Oklahoma moving to either the Pac-10 or the SEC, the Big XII could lose up to 6 of its premier programs, leaving only the likes of Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, among others.  The Big XII could potentially wither as the Big East could due to the domino effect started by the Big Ten.

So what does this all mean? Could a situation really occur in which the Big Ten could include as many as 16 teams, Notre Dame could no longer be independent, and there could only be 4 major “super-conferences,” with the destruction of the Big XII and the Big East?  Will the history of rivalries such as Pittsburgh and West Virginia (the Backyard Brawl), Texas and Oklahoma (the Red River Rivalry), and Texas and Texas A&M, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (Bedlam), become traditions of the past?  These potential realities could all be realized with the right collapse of the dominoes in the conference expansion carousel. 

Is it good for football?  I tend to think no, as the beauty and excitement of rivalries will be compromised.  Sure, we will have 4 superconferences, but where will the excitement come from?  How will the Big Ten be so exciting when teams don’t even play half the teams in their conference?  How can a true conference champion be crowned with the possibility of 3 undefeated teams in a conference?  The only positive of this change to 4 superconferences would be the potential inclusion of teams such as Boise State and TCU in a conference like the Pac-10.  With this improvement, the 4 year debate about how to appropriately reward teams like Boise State, TCU, and Utah with their weak regular season schedules will end.  All these teams will be included in power conferences, and finally will need to prove themselves week in and week out.

With all these possibilities for conference expansion, it is apparant that there will be a major shift of some kind in the college football landscape.  Bob Long’s Sports Blog will follow the development every step of the way and keep you readers updates with every phase of the massive transition as the details emerge.

NCAA Tournament Round 2: What We Learned

After the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, which ended today, we learned that the Big 10 is a darn good conference.  The Big 10 leads all conferences with 3 teams in the Sweet 16; including Purdue, which is missing Robbie Hummel, and Michigan State, who lost Kalin Lucas for the rest of the season halfway through the Maryland game today.  The Big 10 is not a second tier conference below conferences like the Big East and Big XII anymore.

We learned that the Big East is not as good as we originally thought.  Although I have been pushing the power of the conference all year, I must admit that the Big East teams’ performance in the NCAA tournament has been less than impressive at times.  All that remains from the Big East are the top two teams, Syracuse and West Virginia.  However, with 2 teams remaining, the Big East is tied with the Big XII and SEC for 2nd in that catagory, trailing only the Big 10.  The conference still has power at the top, and both these teams have the opportunity to advance to the National Championship.  However, the Big East is not by far the best conference in basketball as was proposed throughout the season.  Instead, conferences like the Big 10 and Big XII are very comparable to the Big East.

We learned that the Mountain West was overrated.  The conference went a combined 2-4 in the tournament, and advanced zero teams to the Sweet 16.  Considering that the Pac 10 and A-10 were ranked behind the Mountain West in RPI before the NCAA tournament, and both these conferences have a team in the Sweet 16 and better overall records in the tournament, the Mountain West is a conference which was overrated by national pundits this season.

We learned that nothing is a sure thing.  Between the upsets of Kansas, Villanova, and Georgetown (in the first round), people have lost their final four teams and their national champions in their brackets.  And who pulled these upsets?  Northern Iowa, Saint Mary’s, and Ohio, respectively.  The success of small conference teams like these, as well as Cornell, has been admirable and has made for some very exciting and unexpected upsets. 

Finally, we learned that Cornell is a really good team.  The ability for Cornell to perform so well offensively against 2 great defensive teams in Temple and Wisconsin is scary for #1 seed Kentucky, who the Big Red will face in the Regional Semifinal.

NCAA Tournament Round 1: What We Learned

We learned that this is the year of the upset.  Only 2 years after the majority of higher seeds won and all four #1 seeds made the Final Four, there were 8 wins by double digit seeds in this year’s first round.

We learned that the Pac-10 was stronger at the top than we all thought.  Cal and Washington both won their games in which they were underdogs, and put the conference at a perfect 2-0 mark in the first round.

We learned that the Big East isn’t as dominant as we all thought.  The Big East went 4-4 and lost every one of its seeds above a 3, and lost a 3 seed itself in Georgetown.  Most Big East teams seemed to come out flat, make a late run, and either win at the very end or come just short.

We learned that the Atlantic 10 finally came down to Earth.  Losses by Temple and Richmond as favorites over automatic qualifiers lessened the supposed impact made by the Atlantic 10 on the college basketball landscape this year.  Xavier held the conference up with a win over Minnesota.

We learned that slow, burn style, controlled offenses can backfire on teams.  These slow styles prevent more talented teams from putting their opponents away early, and allows these teams to stay in the game for much too long, and if the team is behind, doesn’t allow them to efficiently come back in the game.  Georgetown and Notre Dame learned these lessons the hard way, and Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue came very close to incurring the same fate.

Finally, we learned (if we didn’t already know) that the NCAA tournament first round is the greatest spectacle in college sports, and spans the 2 best days of the entire year, followed only by Saturday and Sunday in the 2nd round.

NCAA Tournament First Friday Preview

Most Intriguing Matchup:

#8 California vs. #9 Louisville:  Pac-10 vs. Big East, part 2, after Washington beat Marquette in the final seconds today.  Is the Big East really down this year?  This game will do a lot to answer that question.  In addition, the winner of this 8 vs. 9 matchup will face what many, including myself, believe is the most beatable 1 seed in the tournament.  Louisville’s defense vs. Jerome Randall and Cal’s offense will also be an interesting matchup.

Upset Alert:

#4 Purdue vs. #13 Siena- Purdue has struggled mightily after the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel.  If Siena can contain JaJuan Johnson, Siena will be able to severely limit the Purdue offense and ultimately pull off the big upset.

Upset Pick to Avoid:

#12 Cornell vs. #5 Temple- This pick was made popular by Cornell’s loss to Kansas and Jay Bilas’ pick, which sends Cornell to the Elite 8.  The fact is, Cornell hasn’t beaten anyone and has had some really bad losses, including a blowout against Penn.  Temple, on the other hand, has had many big wins, including an out of conference win over Villanova and conference wins over fellow NCAA tournament counterparts Xavier and Richmond.  In addition, Temple has a much stronger defense that the majority of teams that Cornell has played.  Bottomline, Cornell is the most “smoke-and-mirrors” team in this tournament, and I believe Temple is a fairly safe bet Friday.

What Teams Need to do during Championship Week

Entering Championship Week, the bubble includes teams that need to still win some games over quality teams in order to ensure an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament.  Here are some of the most prominent bubble teams and what they need to do to get a bid (obviously some bids will be determined by performance of other teams in other conference tournaments):

ACC:

Wake Forest–Needs 3 wins.  Could be a win today against Clemson and 2 in the ACC tournament, or a loss today and 3 in the ACC tournament.  However, after going on a 4 game slide, the Demon Deacons now have a good deal of work to do before it can ensure a bid into the NCAA tournament.

Florida State–The Noles are in the mix even with an opening round loss in the ACC tournament, and 1 win would almost ensure a bid.  2 wins would make Florida State a lock.

Georgia Tech–With an 8-9 record since January 5th, the Yellow Jackets have a lot of work to do.  The team needs at least a trip to the semifinals to put itself on the back edge of the bubble on Selection Sunday.  A finals appearance would put the Jackets in the mix, and a conference championship is the only thing that will ensure Georgia Tech a bid.

Virginia Tech–1 win will put the Hokies squarely on the bubble, 2 wins should put the team in, and 0 wins will keep the team on the bubble, but would severely hurt the Hokies’ chances for an at-large bid.

Big XII:

Top 7 teams are in, bottom 5 teams have no chance at an at-large bid and need to win the conference tournament to get a bid.

Big East:

Marquette–LOCK

Louisville–LOCK

Notre Dame–LOCK

Connecticut–2 games to put the Huskies in the mix, 3 to be a lock (3rd win would be over Villanova, giving them another win over a RPI Top 25 team).

Seton Hall–Although I disagree with the treatment of Seton Hall, because I think they should only need 1 win to get in, the Pirates need at least 2, but most likely 3 to be in the mix for a bid (3rd win would be over Pitt).  A trip to the finals would make the Pirates a lock for the tournament.

Cincinnati–needs to win the Big East Tournament, and has no chance for an at-large bid.

Big 10:

Illinois–Needs 2 wins, which would give the Illini 20 wins and 2 more wins over ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Ohio State).  Under 2 wins may not be enough to put the Illini in, as that 2nd win over Ohio State is what would put the team over the top.

Pac-10:

Washington/Arizona State–These teams are on a collision course to play in the semifinals of the Pac-10 tournament as the 3 seed and 2 seed, respectively.  The winner of this game becomes a lock for an at-large bid, and the loser will most likely be eliminated from tournament contention.

California–1 win in the Pac 10 tournament and the Bears are in as a lock.  Even with a loss, the Bears are still in the mix for an at-large bid. 

Every other teams needs to win the Pac 10 tournament, and has no chance for an at-large bid.

SEC:

Florida–The Gators need 1 win to put themselves in the mix, but would like to get 2 wins, because the team would play bubble foe Mississippi State in the 2nd game.  A win by Mississippi State over Florida would raise eyebrows with the committee, and may result in the Bulldogs being picked over Florida for the NCAA tournament depending on Miss St.’s performance after a win over Florida.

Ole Miss–1 win should do the job because the team’s first game will most likely to be played against Tennessee.  This win would give the Rebels a much needed quality win over a ranked team.  With a loss the Rebels are out.

Mississippi State–The Bulldogs need to win 2 games at least (which would advance the team to the finals).  Depending upon the play of other teams, Mississippi State may need to win the SEC tournament to earn an automatic bid.

Mountain West:

UNLV–1 win will put the Runnin Rebels in the mix, and 2 wins (meaning most likely a win over BYU), will make UNLV a lock.  A loss would eliminate UNLV.

San Diego State–1 win will put the Aztecs in the mix, but the team could really use a quality win in its 2nd game against New Mexico in order to ensure a bid.  Like UNLV, a loss will put the Aztecs out of contention. 

Other than BYU and New Mexico, which are locks, every other team needs to win the conference tournament and can not earn an at-large bid.

Atlantic 10:

Rhode Island/Dayton/Saint Louis/Everyone else—Need to win the A-10 tournament, and can not do enough with the little time and opportunities remaining to earn an at-large bid.  Rhode Island and Dayton fell out of the race towards the end of the season.  Saint Louis didn’t do enough early, and their late season success isn’t enough to make up for what they didn’t do in the nonconference.

Other Conferences:

UTEP–LOCK

Utah State–needs to win the WAC tournament, as the Aggies’ schedule strength severely hurts their at-large chances.

Old Dominion–LOCK (have advanced to the CAA conference championship, and even with a loss they are in)

UAB–Needs to win the Conference USA tournament

Saint Mary’s–Needs to either beat Gonzaga or win the WCC tournament, the Gaels resume hasn’t been strong enough to include in the NCAA tournament without one or both of these situations occurring

Memphis– Most likely needs to win the Conference USA tournament, but a championship game loss to UTEP may put the Tigers in the mix on Selection Sunday.