Play the Game, Folks

The issue of the implementation of some NFL rules has been bothering me all year.  Many calls from the officials have been detracting from the games, and have been sending mixed messages to players as to what they can and can not do.  A few plays this weekend especially caught my attention.

In the Houston Texans vs. San Diego Chargers game, Arian Foster had a touchdown called back on a play very similar to the Calvin Johnson play earlier in the year in which the ball was lost only after the catch was made and only after Johnson had already went to the ground.  (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArDyByR5GVA&feature=related).  Check out my “9/13/10 Sports Blitz” for a more in-depth discussion about the Calvin Johnson play.  In terms of the Arian Foster play, he caught the ball in the endzone, took 2 steps, tripped a bit, fell to the ground, and lost the ball while pushing himself up in much the same way as Calvin Johnson (http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81bfcd34/Foster-non-TD).  As I discussed in the podcast, Rule 8 Section 1 Article 4 Item 1 says that “when a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass, with or without contact by an opponent, a player must maintain control of the ball after he touches the ground, whether in the field of play or the endzone.  If he loses control of the ball and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, it is incomplete.  If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, the pass is complete.”  It was this rule that was invoked when the decision was made to call back Foster’s touchdown.

The call was interpreted incorrectly by the officials. Again.  In Calvin Johnson’s case, the call was wrong because he had already taken the ball to the ground before he lost it.  In Arian Foster’s case, the call was wrong because he was not “in the act of catching the pass” when he went to the ground.  The first condition of the rule stated above is that the player must both “go to the ground” and be “in the act of catching a pass” simultaneously.  However, Arian Foster caught the ball standing up, took 2 steps, and began to stumble over a sprawled Chargers defender who had clipped Foster’s back foot, at which point he tried to push himself up with his hands and lost the ball.  The play should have been over after Arian caught the ball standing up and took the 2 steps away.  The catch was made, and at no point during the act of catching the football did Foster either go to the ground or begin falling towards the ground.  Possession was made and Foster was not going to the ground in any capacity.  He only went to the ground well after the catch was made and after a Chargers defender clipped his heels as Foster was running towards the center of the endzone after the catch.  Therefore, he went to the ground after the catch was complete and the touchdown was converted, and the fact that he lost the ball when he went to the ground is irrelevant.

The officials once again misinterpreted the rule, which led to another game-changing and embarrassing call.  This forced the NFL to defend its officials by consulting the rulebook and citing Rule 8 Section 1 Article 4 Item 1, expressed above.  However, I will repeat what I have said multiple times on this issue.  The call was a misinterpretation of the rule.  I do not care if someone is on NFL Live, SportsCenter, the NFL Network, or any other football show, the fact is that the rule was interpreted wrong.  Foster had already caught and controlled the pass, and had made a “football move” by taking 2 steps with full control.  At this point the play should have been dead.  Shame on the NFL and its officials for potentially costing the Houston Texans a very important football game, and not being either intelligent enough or humble enough to admit that the call was wrong.

The next set of calls that disgusted me were multiple hits that should not have been called penalties.  First, in the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts game, Trent Cole lightly tapped Peyton Manning’s helmet on the pass rush as he was trying to strip the ball (which he did as the play continued).  It was 4th down late in the final quarter, and the Eagles had essentially ended the game with that stop.  However, a penalty was called because Cole “made contact with the quarterback’s helmet,” which is a roughing the passer penalty, 15 yards, and an automatic first down.

I am completely in favor of protecting the quarterbacks, and agree that they should not be allowed to be hit in the head, but that play was as docile as a “blow to the head” could be.  Quarterbacks need to be protected, but they can not be cradled.  They are still football players, and they can not be protected completely.  The rules that exist now inhibit the defensive players to the point that some are scared to make a legal hit because it could easily be contrued as dirty simply because of the situation or how the quarterback reacts to the hit.

In this case, the referee did make the right call; any contact with the head is a personal foul.  However, in this case it is the rule that is flawed, not the interpretation.  Defensive players are treated unfairly because harmless plays like that are consistently called penalties.  So how could the rule be improved while still protecting quarterbacks?  My answer is that it should be a judgement call as to whether the hit was “malicious.”  In this definition, a malicious hit is a hit that exerts enough force to potentially hurt a quarterback and/or was deemed to be intentional.  This condition allows defensive players more freedom to simply play the game, but also holds them accountable for reprehensible actions and penalizes hits that actually affect the quarterbacks.  The condition also limits the amount of penalties called for grazing blows that neither were intentional nor detrimental to the quarterback, thus bringing more legitimacy to the game and its calls.

In the same game, on a play down the middle of the field, WR Austin Collie suffered a hit that left him motionless on the field for several minutes (http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81bef36b/Austin-Collie-injury).  Eagles Safety Quintin Mikell laid the initial hit, and nearly simultaneously rookie Safety Kurt Coleman hit Collie as well.  Coleman struck Collie helmet to helmet, but only because Collie’s head jerked into the helmet of Coleman.  Kurt Coleman was set to tackle Collie with his shoulder, but Mikell’s (legal) hit forced Collie’s helmet to move into Coleman’s at the last instant.  There is no way to reasonably penalize Kurt Coleman for that play, because there is simply nothing he could do on that play.  It is unfortunate, but those types of plays are sometimes out of anyone’s control, and a penalty can not be called for helmet to helmet contact.

Fortunately, that was not the call made on the field.  I simply made that argument because, by looking at the video, that is likely the first aspect of the play that catches people’s attention.  However, the call was made because it was deemed the tackle was made “on a defenseless receiver.”  A defenseless receiver is a receiver that has not had sufficient time to turn his head in order to react or prepare for a hit.  However, one will notice in the video that Collie 1) turned his head, and 2) even lowered his head to drive himself into the Philadelphia defenders.  There was nothing defenseless about Collie on that play.  It is unfortunate that he suffered a head injury on the play, but he was no longer a defenseless receiver once he turned his head and lowered his shoulder into the defenders.  And, as mentioned, the Coleman and Mikell did nothing wrong either.

This call was a case of bad judgement by the officials.  They overreacted to the outcome of the play without basing their call on the rule itself and the actions of Collie prior to the hit.  The job of the officials is to objectively make the calls based on the rules, and not to be influenced by the after-effects of a play in a sport where injury is simply part of the game.  Injury does not equal penalty, as tough as it is for some to hear or understand.

Finally, in the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals game on Monday Night Football, Carson Palmer was bailed out by an overreaction by the referees.  As he was releasing the ball, he was hit (above the knees) by the Pittsburgh defensive lineman.  The play was called roughing the passer.  However, the hit was not late, as it was made just after Palmer released the ball, and the hit was not too low on the quarterback, as it was above the knees.  The referees overreacted by throwing the flag in this situation, and it gave the Bengals 15 more yards and fueled the momentum that almost led to the comeback win.

These are only a few calls this weekend that disappointed me as a football fan.  The game is becoming less and less consistent, and it is becoming less and less physical.  I will be the first to campaign for protecting players’ heads and for protecting players from malicious hits, but the penalization of clean hits is completely unacceptable.  And frankly, it is embarrassing to the National Football League.  This league needs to 1) revise its rulebook so that hits that should be clean aren’t against the rules (Cole’s hit on Manning), 2) read and understand the rulebook (Foster’s called back touchdown), and 3) teach the referees to differentiate between a big hit and an illegal hit (hits on Austin Collie and Carson Palmer).  These are big steps to take, but they need to be taken to restore the legitimacy of the NFL rules and its referees.

Podcast: 2010 NFL Predictions (AFC)

Title: 2010 NFL Predictions (AFC)

Part 1 of the NFL Predictions Podcast, with Chris Pierangeli.  In this podcast we give our predictions for the AFC, including division winners, wild card winners, and the AFC representative in Super Bowl XLV.

Download Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-09-09T16_27_20-07_00

Super Bowl XLIV (Postgame)

The Super Bowl lived up to the hype.  The two top seeds from their respective conferences played for the Vince Lombardi Trophy yesterday, the most coveted object in football.  Super Bowl XLIV was defined by efficiency in the passing game, risk taking by the Saints, and the unforgettable scene of Drew Brees holding his son in his moment of celebration after the win.  It was simply a great game that fans have come to expect recently in the Super Bowl.

In the first quarter, it did not appear to some that the game would remain close.  The Colts took a 3-0 lead after forcing the Saints offense to go 3 and out, and embarking upon a subsequent 11 play 53 yard drive that ended in a field goal.  The fact that the Colts could only put 3 points on the board left an opening for the Saints to regain momentum.  However, the Saints were simply not in sync early in the game.  The running game could not get on track, there were no true explosive plays, and players seemed tense and nervious.  For example, Marques Colston dropped a wide open pass attempt in the Saints’ second series that would have given the team some momentum.  The Saints instead punted on the second set of downs in the next drive and then allowed Peyton Manning and the Colt offense to embark upon another 11 play drive, this time for 96 yards, and a touchdown to put the Colts up 10-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. 

In a 1st half seemingly defined by 11 play scoring drives, the Saints went on an 11 play drive and Garrett Hartley kicked a field goal (more to come on him) to put the Saints back into the game, now down by only 7 points early in the 2nd quarter.  The Saints then forced the Colts to go 3 and out on the next possession, and then drove 68 yards to the Colt 1 yard line.  On 4th and goal Pierre Thomas was stopped by the Colts strong defensive line.  This defensive stand looked to be a huge momentum swing in the game, but the Saint defense stepped up.  The Colts went 3 and out and punted from deep inside their own territory.  The Saints received the ball at about midfield and proceeded to drive into field goal range, where kicker Garrett Hartley again was clutch and drew the Saints within 4 points at half.  These points were so important for the Saints, because by getting the ball back at midfield and kicking a field goal in the last minute before half, the Saints in essence did not miss the scoring opportunity they had when they decided not to kick the field goal before being stopped at the 1 yard line.  If they had kicked the field goal, the Colts would have gotten better field position after the Saint kickoff, and the Saints most likely would not have had the opportunity to score again with the very limited amount of time remaining in the half and the lack of good field position.  Therefore, this field goal mitigated the momentum the Colts had garnered by stepping up at the goal line, and this change in momentum was a big turning point of the game going into half.

After the half, the Saints kicked off to the Colts.  Or so we all thought.  The Colts were taken by complete surprise, as was the rest of the nation and the world, by an onside kick by the Saints.  The Saints angled the ball to Hank Baskett, who clearly was not expecting the onside kick.  The ball bounced off his helmet well beyond the 10 yard limit, and then a 5 minute scrum erupted at the Saints 42 yard line.  Finally, it was determined that the Saints had recovered the ball.  This play was another main turning point in the game.  The Saints promptly moved the ball down the field and scored a touchdown to take a 13-10 lead.  The Colts then scored a touchdown on their next drive to take a 17-13 lead.  The Saints then responded with a field goal, again by clutch kicker Garrett Hartley, to cut the deficit to 17-16 heading into the 4th quarter of Super Bowl XLIV.

It was in the 4th quarter that the Saints made all the big plays necessary to win the Super Bowl.  Beginning with a Colts missed field goal by Matt  Stover, the Saints took all the momentum for the remainder of the game.  The Saints promptly took the ball downfield after receiving good field position and scored a touchdown, then followed with a successful two point conversion, which was determined to be good after replay review.  The Saints now had a 24-17 lead, and the Colts had an opportunity to drive down the field and tie the game with 5:42 remaining.  However, Tracy Porter essentially ended the Colts’ hopes with a 74 yard interception for a touchdown to put the Saints up 31-17.  This play, along with the onside kick to begin the 2nd half, were the biggest plays in the Super Bowl and will always be remembered as two of the most famous plays in Super Bowl history.   

However, the Colts were STILL not done.  Peyton took his team down the field, and he faced a 4th and goal from the 5 yard line.  However, Reggie Wayne let a ball go right through his hands on a crossing pattern that would have cut the lead to 7.  The ball went right through Wayne’s hands, and after the turnover on downs the Saints only needed to assume the victory formation and kneel on the ball to become Super Bowl XLIV Champions.

This victory was important for the Saints for so many reasons.  It is the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl win, and it is the first Super Bowl win for one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees.  Also, the city of New Orleans is only 4 years past the devastation that was Hurricane Katrina.  4 years since the franchise did not have a home, and 4 years since the uncertainty of the franchise’s future in New Orleans, and the future of the city of New Orleans in itself.  However, these 4 years show the power of a city who loves its people, whose people loves its franchise, and whose franchise actively seeks to give back to those who give it so much support.  Congratulations to the Saints and all its fans.  You deserve this.  Drew Brees deserves this.  New Orleans deserves this.

Super Bowl XLIV

Tomorrow, the New Orleans Saints will appear in the franchise’s first Super Bowl, and will play the Indianapolis Colts, who have won 2 Super Bowls as a franchise.  The Super Bowl will be played at the Miami Dolphin’s Landshark Stadium, which is also home to the Miami Hurricanes, Florida Marlins, and the FedEx Orange Bowl.  Ironically, the Colts won their last Super Bowl in Maimi, as Peyton Manning led the Colts to victory against Rex Grossman and the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. 

This year, the Super Bowl will be played by the 2 consistently most talented teams.  The Colts and Saints were the last teams to remain undefeated in the regular season, and both teams were the top seed in their respective conferences.  It is only fitting that these two teams meet in the Super Bowl, and it is significant because the top 2 seeds rarely meet in the Super Bowl.  The last time the top NFC seed met the top AFC seed in the Super Bowl was 1994, Super Bowl XXVIII, when the Cowboys beat the Bills.

Super Bowl XLIV will pair the two best offenses in the league.  While each team’s defense has had success at times during the season, defense is not what carried each team to this point.  Led by All-Pro quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Drew Brees respectively, the Colts and Saints both rely on pass heavy offenses that look to keep defenses off balance not with the running game but the differences in the distance of passes and the timing of throws.

Peyton Manning is considered by most fans to be the best quarterback in football right now, and one of the best of all time.  Aided by a strong offensive line, tight end Dallas Clark, and veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne, Manning operates the offense like a well-oiled machine, using constant audibles and pinpoint accuracy to keep the defenses off guard.  This year, the Colts have benefited from the emergence of two young wideouts, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie.  These receivers became more utilized in the offense after slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez went down for the season with a torn right PCL in Week 1.  These receivers were huge contributors in the Colts AFC Championship win over the Jets, and will need to be effective against the Saints in order to keep up with Drew Brees and his high powered offense.

The Saints offense is primarily led by Drew Brees, who has shown the ability, despite his size, to lead the league’s best offense over the course of the season.  Drew Brees has shown that he has a deceptively strong arm and pinpoint accuracy over his past few years in New Orleans.  In addition, the Saints have arguably the best receiving core in the country, with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and tight end Jeremy Shockey.  With this talented receiving core, Drew Brees has big, agile targets to throw to, and in many cases all he needs to do is throw the ball high and let his tall receivers jump for the ball. 

A key factor in this game will be the presence of Dwight Freeney.  The All-Pro defensive end will play, but is not nearly 100%, as he has a torn ligament in his ankle.  He has been the best defensive end in football the past few years, and his ability to beat left tackles and get to the quarterback has been unmatched in football.  If Freeney is able to get to Brees quickly, it will greatly limit the big play potential of the Saints, and would be instrumental in the success of the Colts defense.  However, Freeney has not been able to practice at all this week, and he will test his ankle in pregrame warmups to determine the extent to which he can play in the Super Bowl.  I do not think Freeney will be able to be very effective in the Super Bowl because of his ankle injury despite his valient efforts to return to the field.

My prediction: This game will be a high scoring shootout that will be an entertaining game for all football fans, whether diehard or casual.  It may not be a game that football purists will be pleased with, but it will be an offensive spectacle.  As powerful as the Saints offense has been, I think Peyton Manning and the Colts will score early to take a 2 possession lead in the 1st quarter, and the Colts will be able to hold on to this lead just long enough despite a Saints comeback attempt to win the  Super Bowl.  Drew Brees will put up unbelievable numbers, but Peyton Manning will play smart enough to retain the Colts early lead, and the Colts defense will be able to come up with just enough stops to win.  A key special teams play by the Colts will also add to the Colt momentum and fuel the team to victory.

Colts 41 — Saints 34

Conference Championship Weekend Recap

In the AFC Championship, the New York Jets played the Indianapolis Colts, and were fighting for a chance to go to the Super Bowl.  The Jets started quickly in the game, forcing the Colts to stall on their first series and to punt.  The Jets then moved the ball down the field to allow for a 44 yard field goal that would take an early lead, but Jay Feely missed the field goal wide right.

The game was scoreless through the 1st quarter.  That would change quickly.  In the first 2 plays from scrimmage of the 2nd quarter, Matt Stover kicked a 25 yard field goal to give the Colts a 3-0 lead, and Braylon Edwards subsequently caught a 80 yard touchdown pass to put the Jets up 7-3.  After a Colts field goal on the next drive, the Jets employed some trickery by setting up in the wildcat formation with Brad Smith and then having him pass to Jericho Cotchery for a 45 yard gain and a huge momentum swing.  The Jets then finished the drive with a touchdown to increase the lead to 14-6.  After a Joseph Addai fumble on the next drive, the Jets settled for a field goal to take a 17-6 lead.  At this point all the momentum was with the Jets, and the Colts were having trouble finishing their drives.  In a typical Peyton Manning drive, the Colts mounted a 4 play 80 yard drive to end their half on offense and to get themselves right back into the game.  The halftime score was 17-13 Jets.

In the 2nd half, the Jets looked to retain and regain any momentum from the first half.  After receiving the ball to begin the 2nd half, the Jets moved 39 yards down the field to set up Jay Feely with a 52 yard field goal, which he missed brutally wide right. 

After the missed field goal, the Colts prompted embarked upon an 8 play, 57 yard drive to take a 20-17 lead.  The Colts would never surrender this lead.  The Colts would add a 4th quarter field goal and a late field goal, and would win the game 30-17.

The Colts were led by Peyton Manning, as always, but he had some unlikely targets to which he threw.  His prominent targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, combined for only 9 catches and 90 yards, whereas lesser known receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie combined for 18 catches and 274 yards.  The two receivers were two main pieces of the Colts comeback and subsequent win over the Jets. 

Now to address the Jets.  The Jets played extremely hard in this game and throughout the playoffs, and became the biggest upset story of the playoffs.  The defense did not play its best, but the team was still in the game until kicker Jay Feely essentially took his team out of the game with 2 missed field goals.  While it is true that Jay Feely may not have the strongest leg in the league, he missed two makeable field goals this game wide right, and quite possibly cost the Jets a trip to the Super Bowl.  If he made the two field goals that he missed,the Jets would have had a 23-13 lead in the 3rd quarter, and would have had much more momentum.  However, this is only one of many occasions in the 2009 playoffs where kickers took their teams out of the game.  Shane Graham missed 2 field goals against the Jets in Wild Card Weekend, Nate Kaeding missed 3 in the Divisional Round against the Jets, Neil Rackers almost cost the Cardinals a win in Wild Card weekend with a brutal wide left at the end of regulation against the Packers, and finally Jay Feely allowed the Colts to stay in the game today due to his 2 missed field goals.  The inadequancy of kickers in big situations is something that should be followed in the coming years to see if a trend is beginning in the NFL.

The Jets shortcomings should not take any credit from the Colts, who will play in Maimi in two weeks.  Peyton Manning will return to the location where he played his first Super Bowl and defeated the Bears.

In the NFC Championship, the New Orleans Saints hosted the Minnesota Vikings.  This game was expected to be a high scoring, offense based game, and at times the offenses looked unstoppable.  Each team scored touchdowns in 2 of their first 3 possessions, but then the defenses took over and the rest of the half remained scoreless.  In the 3rd quarter, both offenses scored touchdowns on their first possessions, and the defenses again took control and kept the rest of the 3rd quarter scoreless.  In the 4th, both teams scored 1 touchdown, and the game went to overtime tied 28-28.  To this point the Vikings had turned the ball over 5 times, including a Brett Favre interception in the final minute when the Vikings were on the edge of field goal range.

In overtime, the Saints won the toss and elected to receive.  After a few booth reviews, once over the spot of the ball and once over whether or not a catch was made, the Saints faced a 4th and 1 inside the Vikings’ 45 yard line.  In a gutsy move, head coach Sean Payton decided to hand the ball to Pierre Thomas who leapt for a 1st down.  After a pass interference call, the Saints were placed in field goal position, and after a few plays, Garrett Hartley kicked a 40 yard field straight down the middle (a nice change of pace from other kickers this postseason) to give the Saints the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance.

A key player for the Saints was Drew Brees, who threw for 197 yards and, more importantly, 3 touchdowns.  Brees spread the ball among 8 receivers, with the leading receiver, Devery Henderson, only catching 4 balls for 39 yards.  In addition, running back Pierre Thomas had 14 rushes for 61 yards and 1 touchdown against the stout Vikings run defense.

For the Vikings, a big part of the loss came from the 5 team turnovers.  The team fumbled 6 times and lost the ball 3 times from these fumbles, with running back Adrain Peterson fumbling 2 times.  In addition, Brett Favre threw 2 interceptions, including 1 in the final minute with the Vikings on the verge of field goal range.  These turnovers, most of them very untimely in nature, in essence cost the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl.

Again, the turnovers made by the Vikings should not take credit from the Saints.  The Saints were the best team all year in the NFC, and will meet the Colts, who were the best in the AFC this year, in Super Bowl XLIV.  The game will be played 2 weeks from now in Miami’s Landshark Stadium, which in the home of the Dolphins, Miami Hurricanes, and the Orange Bowl.

Conference Championship Weekend Preview

Both NFL Conference Championship Games will be played on Sunday, January 24th.  In the AFC Championship, the upstart, underdog New York Jets will travel to Indianapolis to play the top ranked Colts.  This game is ripe with storylines.  First, the Colts and Jets played in Week 16.  The Colts were 14-0 and had a chance to have an undefeated season with a win over the Jets and then Buffalo.  However, the Colts decided to rest the starters to prepare for the postseason and avoid injury.  In addition, the New York Jets were, at the time, on the edge of the playoff race.  The Jets needed to win their final 2 games in order to make the playoffs.  The Colts had a 15-10 lead in the 3rd quarter before removing the starters, and the Jets appeared to be on the brink of playoff elimination.  However, after inserting backup quarterback Curtis Painter into the game, the Colts produced under 30 passing yards for the remainder of the game and gave away the game with a 29-15 loss.  Therefore, in this game the Colts gave away the perfect season and gave the Jets a chance to make the playoffs.  How ironic it is that these same Jets have a chance to eliminate the Colts this Sunday.  If the Colts do lose this game, the team will be mocked for its decision to rest the starters and thereby enabling the Jets to make the playoffs.  What a story that would be for these same Jets to eliminate the Colts.

Another exciting storyline for the game is Rex Ryan’s past in Baltimore.  Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens, known for its stout defenses, before he was hired as the Jets head coach.  The Ravens have played the Colts multiple times over the years, including a game in the 2006 AFC Divisional Round.  The Ravens had a bye and were 13-3 in the regular season, and faced the 3^rd seeded Colts.  This game was a defensive struggle that did not produce a touchdown for either team, and the Colts defeated the home Ravens 15-6.  This year, the Rex Ryan defense bears many similarities to the Raven defense, and the Colt offense remains relatively the same as 2006.  In addition, the current Jet and Raven offense of 2006 bear many of the same similarities, including an emphasis on the running game.  It will be interesting to see if this game shows any resemblance to the 2006 AFC Divisional Game.

Finally, this game is a rematch of Super Bowl III.  The Jets and Colts met in Super Bowl III, and the Colts were heavily favored in the game.  However, Joe Namath had confidence in the underrated Jets, and was not afraid to say it.  Namath guaranteed a Jets win, which sounded ridiculous to some.  However, in one of the greatest upsets of all time, Namath and the Jets beat the Colts 16-7 to win Super Bowl III.  This AFC Championship pairs the same teams, and there was somewhat of a guarantee issued by the Jets.  Coach Rex Ryan produced an itinerary for his team at the beginning of the playoffs, which concluded with a Super Bowl win and a parade in New York.  Now the team has marketed championship gear even before the game.  Therefore, the Jets will look to win another Namath-style guarantee game against the now-Indianapolis Colts, moved from Baltimore in 1984.

My prediction:  The Jets story has been great, and Rex Ryan has done a great job with the team.  The strong running game and defense has fueled the team, but the dream run will end this Sunday.  Peyton and the Colts will be too much for the Jets to handle. 

Colts 24—Jets 13

In the NFC Championship Game, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to New Orleans to play the Saints.  This game does not have nearly the amount of storylines that the Jets Colts game does, but it has as much or more anticipation.  The Saints and Vikings have been the best and second best teams in the NFC all year.  This game features the greatest statistical quarterback of all time, Brett Favre, and arguably the quarterback with the best passing numbers in the NFL this year, Drew Brees.  Both offenses have shown the ability to score at will this year, but both defenses have been inconsistent at times.  The Vikings defense; however, has proven itself to be more talented and formidable than the Saints defense.  The key in this game will be which defense will be able to contain the opposing offense best. 

My prediction:  The Saints offense will prove to be unstoppable again, even against the Vikings defense and talented pass rush, and the Saints defense will hold the Vikings offense just enough to go to the Super Bowl.

Saints 35—Vikings 23

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

After wins by the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, and Baltimore Ravens in Wild Card weekend, the Divisional Round will provide four exciting games.

The New Orleans Saints (1 NFC) will play the Arizona Cardinals (4 NFC).

This game is a game with many complex subplots.  The Cardinals defense has struggled at times, and the New Orleans offense was the best offense in the league for a majority of the season (although not recently).  In addition, the New Orleans defense has struggled this season, and the Cardinals offense put up 51 (45 offensive) points against the Packers, a top defense in the NFL.  This game will come down to which defense can contain the other team’s explosive offense.

My prediction:  The Saints offense will return to form and will outperform the Cardinals offense in a shootout. 

Saints 45–Cardinals 38

The other NFC Divisional Round game will be the Minnesota Vikings (2 NFC) against the Dallas Cowboys (3 NFC).

This game is also very difficult to pick because of how the teams have played down the stretch.  The Cowboys have looked like the hottest team recently, both on offense and defense.  The Vikings have looked good for the majority of the season, struggled a bit down the stretch, but then crushed the Giants in Week 17 to put a positive end to the regular season going into the bye week.  The key to this game will be whether the Cowboy defense can continue its almost unfathomable stretch of defense against dynamic offenses.

My prediction:  The Cowboys defense will slow down the Viking offense, and the Cowboy offense will continue to control the ball and time of possession (TOP), and will move on to the NFC Championship Game.

Cowb0ys 27—Vikings 14

The AFC matchups pair two very different teams in terms of personnel and philosophy.

The Indianapolis Colts (1 AFC) will face the Baltimore Ravens (6 AFC).

This game pairs the running minded Ravens and the passing minded Colts with MVP Peyton Manning at quarterback.  The game will come down to whether or not the Raven defense can keep the Colt offense in check, and whether the Ravens offense can keep the ball out of Mannings hands.  Another key will be the impact the resting of starters for 2 consecutive weeks will have on the Colts.

My prediction:  The Colts will not play poorly, but will not be crisp early in the game, and the Ravens will take advantage.  The Colts offense will be limited in its possessions by both the Ravens defense and its offense reliance on running the ball and time of possession (TOP).  

Ravens 24—Colts 20

Finally, the San Diego Chargers (2 AFC) will play the upstart New York Jets (5 AFC).  This game will be extremely interesting, as the Jet defense has looked stellar, while the running game has remained the best the league has to offer, led by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.  The Chargers have been arguably the best team in the league the last 2-3 months.  Therefore, this game will pair two very talented teams who are playing very well right now.  The key to this game will be whether the Jets defense can force turnovers on the explosive Chargers offense.

My prediction:  The game will be closer than expected, but the Chargers offense will take control late in the game.

Chargers 31—Jets 21

The NFL Divisional Playoff Matchups

The NFL regular season has concluded and the playoffs will begin next week.  This year was unique for many reasons.  First, two teams (Saints and Colts) started at least 13-0, and each of the teams lost their final 2 games (the Saints lost their final 3).  In addition, the first round of the playoffs will feature 3 rematches of Week 17.  Finally, Titans running back Chris Johnson became the sixth running back in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000 yard mark in a season.  But what hasn’t changed is that once the calendar turns to the New Year, it is playoff time. 

The AFC playoff picture looks as such:

The Colts (1) and Chargers (2) will receive byes in the first round.

The Ravens (6) will travel to Foxboro to face the Patriots (3), Sunday at 1PM on CBS.

This game will come down to whether or not the depleted New England offense, with Wes Welker out for the season and Tom Brady dinged up, can still move the ball effectively against the always stout Baltimore defense.  In addition, can Joe Flacco be composed well enough in only his second year to take his team deep into the playoffs again.  I think that the Raven running game will control the tempo of the game, and the New England offense will not be able to recover from its best receiver’s injury.

My prediction: Baltimore wins 20-10.

The Bengals (5) will host the Jets (4) on Saturday at 4:30 on CBS.

In a rematch of last week’s finale, the Bengals will look to get Chad Ochocinco back healthy.  The key matchup will be Jets CB Darrelle Revis, the best corner in the league, against Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals’ top receiver.  In addition, it will be a battle of two strong running games, led by Thomas Jones for the Jets and Cedric Benson for the Bengals, with veteran Larry Johnson in the backup role.

My prediction:  The Bengals run defense has allowed the team to beat both Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice this year, and will remain stout in this game.  Thomas Jones will not have the effect he needs to for the Jets to win the game.

My prediction:  Cincinnati 24–New York 20

The NFC Playoff Picture looks like this:

The New Orleans Saints (1) and the Minnesota Vikings (2) receive byes in the first round.

The Philadelphia Eagles (6) will travel back to Dallas to play the Cowboys (3) at 8 PM on Saturday on NBC.  The Eagles will look to turn the tide after getting hammered by the Cowboys this past week 24-0.  The game quite simply will come down to whether or not the Eagles can stop the Cowboys offense and keep themselves in the game. 

My prediction:  The Eagles will play better than they did last week, but not quite well enough to beat the Cowboys.  Cowboys 31–Eagles 20.

The final game of the weekend is the Green Bay Packers (5) traveling to Arizona to play the Cardinals (4) at 4:40 on Sunday on FOX. 

Once again, this game is a rematch of the final week of the season.  The Packers crushed the Cardinals, who rested many starters.  Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams in football, and the game will come down to whether the Green Bay offensive line can continue to protect Aaron Rodgers, as the o-line has been the achillies heel of the Packers at points this year. 

My prediction:  The Packers handle the Cardinals 31-13.

RIP Colts Undefeated Season

The Colts were 14-0 going into yesterday’s game against the Jets, and had a chance to have a perfect regular season, which would put the team in elite company.  Only the 2008 New England Patriots and the 1972 Miami Dolphins have had undefeated regular seasons.  However, the team, in simple terms, gave up.  The Colts had a 15-10 lead in the 3rd quarter when coach Jim Caldwell decided to take out many of the starters, including quarterback Peyton Manning, in order to rest them for the playoffs.  Backup Curtis Painter took over and the offense gained a total 23 yards, with Painter causing two turnovers.  The Jets scored off these turnovers and won the game 29-15.

Why did the Colts decide to replace its starters with the perfect season on the line?  According to head coach Jim Caldwell, the team is more worried about winning the Super Bowl than the undefeated regular season.  Many in the football community are extremely upset about this decision, including myself.  There is just something special about going undefeated; one can see this when understanding the pride the 1972 Dolphins have as the only team to ever go undefeated and win the Super Bowl.  The Colts certainly had that opportunity.  The Colts, had they left Peyton in the game and beaten the Jets, would have played Buffalo next week with a chance to go undefeated in the regular season.  To that I say, leave your starters in and beat the Jets, then sit them against Buffalo if you want.  You aren’t going to lose to Buffalo. 

In my opinion, the Colts did a disservice to the NFL and its fans.  Fans pay to see the extraordinary, and the Colts simply did not care that they were the biggest story in football.  Jim Caldwell needs to learn his place as a first year head coach.  He could have been the only first year head coach ever to lead his team to an undefeated season.  Instead, he really embarrassed himself and his team, because now everyone is scrutinizing the team’s decision to give up a perfect season.  Since a perfect season has only been acheived twice, I believe the Colts had the responsibility to at least leave its starters in the game Sunday to pursue the perfect season.  The Colts owed it to themselves, the fans, and especially Peyton Manning, who has done everything right in Indianapolis and had a chance to further enshrine himself into football history.

However, since the team decided to give up, fans should simply not care.  I am angry that a chance at football history was given up in order to rest a few starters, but I do not feel the least bit sorry for the Colts as a whole.  I feel bad for Peyton and the other players who wanted to play, but it serves Caldwell right to lose that game.  Resting players is not what football is about, and it is not what the fans pay to see.  Honestly, I hope and think that the Colts deserve to get crushed in the first round of the playoffs, which could happen if a team like Baltimore played the Colts.  Even if they don’t lose, and they win the Super Bowl, the Colts will just be one of 44 teams that are Super Bowl winners.  The team could have been 1 of 2 teams to win the Super Bowl with an undefeated season.  If the team is happy to simply be a Super Bowl winner and does not care AT ALL about the undefeated season, well then I guess Coach Caldwell made the right decision.  But the fans, simply stated, should not care about the Colts and the perfect season, because the team gave away its chance, no one else. 

The Colts will not be an undefeated team, and it serves them right.  If they didn’t want it, then they do not deserve it.  Fans pay outrageous prices to see these games, and Colts fans with tickets to these games were most likely ecstatic to have the opportunity to see their team have a chance to go undefeated.  Instead, they paid to watch Curtis Painter (no offense Purdue fans) blow the game against the Jets, and to give away a chance at the perfect season.  It is like paying for a preseason game.  If the NFL keeps going down this road and teams start the trend of resting starters extensively when their playoff spots are clinched, fans simply won’t show up for the latter games of the season.  So to coaches like Jim Caldwell, don’t be surprised if your fans stop showing up at the end of the season, and the lack of attendance causes blackouts in your areas.  And when that does happen, don’t look to blame it on anyone else but yourself.  It is embarrassing what these coaches are doing, and it is one reason why college sports are on the whole so much better than the pro sports.

Comment on your thoughts? What did you think about the Colts decision to sit the starters?

An Undefeated Super Bowl Matchup?

There are two remaining undefeated NFL teams.  The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts both won this weekend and are both 13-0 heading into Week 15.  Both teams have three regular season games remaining, and I am here to say that both teams will at least end the regular season 16-0.

The Saint’s remaining regular season schedule is fairly weak.  Next week, the Saints play on the NFL Network’s Saturday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys have lost the past two weeks, granted against two good teams (Giants and Chargers), and consistently have played poorly in December.  The Saints have played unbelievably at home this year, and will use the emotional atmosphere of the SuperDome to fuel their play.  This game will be New Orleans’ toughest remaining regular season matchup.  The Saints play Tampa Bay at home Week 16.  The combination of the Bucs poor play and the Saints’ dominance at home this year will make for a blowout.  In Week 17, the final week of the regular season, the Saints play the Carolina Panthers on the road.  Carolina has been a mediocre football team this year, and will not beat New Orleans unless New Orleans gives the game away.  The only way this would happen would be if the Saints defense broke down and allowed the Panthers to score often.  Playing on the road has been a difficult test for the Saints this year, as the team has almost lost multiple road games to inferior opponents. 

The Saints should be able to end the regular season undefeated.  If the Saints can beat the Cowboys next week on Saturday Night Football, the stage is set for the Saints to cruise to a 16-0 regular season.

The Indianapolis Colts also have a favorable schedule to end the regular season.  In Week 15, the Colts will face their toughest test against Jacksonville on the road.  The Jaguars are an AFC South team that has shown the ability to beat the Colts in the past, even when the Colts have been the superior team.  The fact that the Colts are playing on the road also provides a difficult test.  If the Colts can win next week, the team will have two relatively easy games left on the schedule.  In Week 16, the Colts will play at home against the Jets.  The Jets are in turmoil right now, as Mark Sanchez, who hasn’t played well this year, is coming off a knee injury that he suffered against the Buffalo Bills.  Finally, in Week 17, the Colts and Bills will play at Buffalo’s Ralph Wilson Stadium.  Buffalo has struggled this season and may well be packing up for the offseason by the time the Colts come to town.

Therefore, if the Colts can beat rival Jacksonville on the road next week, the team will be well on its way to an undefeated regular season.

Now the playoffs may be a different story.  Both teams have shown the ability to come from behind on multiple occasions against non-playoff teams.  However, as the teams play become more talented each week, the margin for error is reduced significantly.  Therefore, lets examine the playoff matchups on a week by week scale.

Both teams will get a bye in the opening round of the playoffs.  The following predictions are based upon the current records and how I believe these teams will finish their seasons.  The Colts will most likely play the winner of Cincinnati v. the 5 seed, which could go to any one of four teams.  Cincinnati hasn’t been the most consistent team this year.  The Bengals can either play a great game based upon a strong running game and stout defense, or they can play poorly and abandon the running game.  If the Bengals can pound the ball through the running game and control the clock, the Colts may have a tough time winning in the Divisional Round.  In the AFC Championship, the Colts would play either the New England Patriots, the San Diego Chargers, or one of the lower seeds.  The New England Patriots and Chargers use more passing style offenses than the Bengals, but I think the Colts would be more likely to beat these teams.  The Colts thrive when Peyton Manning and the offense are on the field.  Teams like Cincinnati hold on to the ball for a long time and limit Manning’s effectiveness.  However, passing teams typically do not hold the ball for as long, which allows the dynamic Colt offense more scoring opportunities.  Therefore, the Colts would most likely have a favorable matchup in the AFC Championship.

In the NFC Divisional Round, The Saints would most likely play either the Arizona Cardinals or the Green Bay Packers.  The Saints will win this game, simply because of their consistent dominance at home.  In the NFC Championship Game, the Saints would most likely play the Vikings, Eagles, or some other low seed.  The Vikings and Eagles would both provide tough tests for the Saints because of the combination of strong defense and dynamic offense on both sides.  The difference will be the response of the Saints defense to these strong offenses.  In addition, the Saints’ 12th Man, the fans in the Super Dome, will provide a difficult atmosphere for the opposing team.

If these teams pass these many tests and enter the Super Bowl with undefeated records, it will be a Super Bowl that will be unmatched in terms of hype.  It would be the only time that a Super Bowl will pair two undefeated team, and only the third time that any undefeated team has played in the Super Bowl.  I believe that the Saints would win this dream matchup.  The Colts have not blown out teams the way the Saints have.  The Colts have narrowly escaped defeat in many games this year, while the Saints have been extremely impressive, especially in their home games.  Balmy Miami will feel just like the 70 degree SuperDome that the Saints call their home.  Therefore, it will still take some impressive wins by both teams to produce an undefeated Super Bowl matchup, but if it does occur, the Saints will win this matchup of the undefeated teams.