TCU to Join Big East

TCU has accepted an invitation to become the 17th member of the Big East Conference and the 9th football member, beginning in the 2012-2013 season.  The move puts the basketball conference in a very precarious position, as a league with 17 members, with potentially more members to come, makes scheduling, organization, and distribution of revenue very difficult.  By comparison, the 2nd largest basketball conference, the Atlantic 10, has 14 members, and has neither the money nor the national prominence of the Big East.  Such a prominent conference with so many teams will be difficult to manage.  However, like most decisions with regard to conference realignment, it was driven by football and the money that comes with it.

Big East football is struggling, and its position as a major football conference has been in jeopardy.  The BCS evaluation period for the Big East’s automatic bid ends in December 2011, and recent history suggests that the conference is not always worthy of an automatic BCS bid.  An addition of a perennial power like TCU is essential for the Big East to retain its BCS automatic bid and the revenue that comes with it.  The Big East will be able to report TCU’s accomplishments and prominence to the BCS for this evaluation, which will most likely secure the BCS automatic bid until the next evaluation period for the 2016-2017 season.  Also, the addition of the Dallas television market, one of the top 5 markets in the country, is a major benefit for the Big East.

The move to a major conference was important for TCU as well.  By joining the Big East, TCU will have an opportunity to earn a BCS bid every year, without concern about BCS rankings or the image of non-automatic qualifying schools.  In addition, the Horned Frogs’ strength of schedule will improve with the move from the Mountain West to the Big East.  The opportunities that exist for the TCU football program in the Big East were unmatched.  The decision to move to the Big East was a perfect match for both entities, as both were filling a void for the other, and now both are in a much better position athletically and financially moving forward.

Where does the Big East move from here?  With 17 schools for basketball, and 9 schools for football, an addition of at least 1 more school is likely.  The Big East desires at least 10 football schools so that it can lobby to the NCAA, just as the Big XII did, for a conference championship game, even though traditional NCAA regulations require 12 teams for a conference championship game.  Candidates for the 10th football spot include Conference USA teams like UCF, Memphis, and Houston, among others.  Another possible addition for football is Villanova, which is already a basketball school in the Big East with a football program at the FCS level.  The offer was made to Villanova to move the football program to the Big East at the beginning of this season.  The potential move by Villanova is currently being reviewed by the VU Athletic Department, and is being led by Athletic Director Vince Necastro.  The decision will be made by early Spring 2011, according to President Father Donohue.  I have been strongly against the potential move from the FCS to the FBS, for many reasons (See my Letter to the VU Athletic Director and the President, http://bobsportsblog.wordpress.com/2010/09/10/nova-to-the-big-east-in-football/).

How will the Big East change beyond football with the addition of TCU?  First, the scheduling and organization of basketball will change dramatically.  At this point, each conference team plays all other teams at least once, and plays 3 teams twice in the regular season, which fulfills the 18 game conference schedule.  With the addition of TCU, and perhaps more schools, the number of repeat conference games per season will decrease or even disappear, which would lead to more balanced scheduling but greater disparity among the quality of teams in the Big East.  In addition, the format of conference tournaments in all sports will need to be changed significantly.  A 17 team conference will become extremely difficult to schedule efficiently and effectively.

Another concern is the travel for TCU.  The Big East consists of teams primarily on the Atlantic Coast, and primarily  in the North.  Teams like Marquette, Depaul, Notre Dame, and South Florida are the exceptions.  However, none of these teams are nearly as far from “Big East Heartland” as TCU.  TCU joins Depaul as the only other Big East team in the Central Time zone, and joins South Florida as the only other Big East team located below the state of Kentucky.  TCU is the farthest outlier geographically, which will certainly affect sports besides basketball and football in terms of transportation.  It is interesting to note; however, that TCU is actually less of an outlier now than it was during its time in the Mountain West.  While in the Mountain West, TCU was the only team in the Central time zone, and more than half of the teams in the conference were 2 time zones away, in the Pacific time zone.  Therefore, long distance traveling will not be new for TCU athletes, but will certainly affect scheduling for the Big East, which hasn’t had to deal with a school located so far from the rest of the Big East schools.

In terms of competition in athletics, TCU will bring an unique presence to the conference.  In basketball, TCU will struggle in a conference that has been the best in college basketball in recent years.  In baseball, TCU will dominate, and will fight with Louisville for conference supremacy most years.  In football, TCU will finally get a bit of a test in conference play.  It will be very exciting to see how TCU will fare against West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and others in the Big East.  In the same vein, it will be exciting to see the impact TCU will have on the conference on the whole, and if recruiting, quality of play, and general excitement around the conference will change with the addition of the program.

TCU brings a new era and a new opportunity to the Big East with the change in affiliation.  Big East football is thankful for the opportunity given by TCU, and TCU is thankful for the opportunity given by the Big East.

Podcast: BCS and National Championship Preview

Title: BCS and National Championship Preview

A full, in-depth look at the scenarios that can affect the National Championship picture in college football.  I’ll clarify the chaos that exists in the BCS and college football right now.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-17T16_03_28-08_00

Podcast: College Basketball 2010 Preview

Title: College Basketball 2010 Preview

This Bob Long’s Sports Podcast includes a full preview of College Basketball, from conference winners, to surprise teams, to who you can expect to see at the top come March. With Chris Pierangeli.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-10T21_34_58-08_00

Hold Your Horses

Last night, Boise State defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies 33-30 at FedEx Field in Washington D.C.  The game had huge implications for the National Championship picture, as Boise State has only 1 more game that should realistically give the Broncos any trouble.  In 2 weeks, Oregon State will travel to the Smurf Turf to face Boise State in what will be Boise’s last BCS school matchup until potentially the bowl game.  Most assume this game to be a victory for Boise, who will face an Oregon State team who will most likely be unranked after this weekend’s loss to TCU.

Therefore, I will write this blog under the assumption that Boise State will go undefeated in the regular season.  Should the Broncos earn a spot in the BCS National Championship Game if they do so?  Part of me feels bad saying this, but absolutely not.  The Broncos will not have done nearly enough to put together a compelling resume that would top a 1 loss or even a 2 loss SEC, Big XII, or Big Ten team.

The big issue for me is about strength of schedule.  It is a exaggerated example, but a middle of the road college football team playing the best high school teams would still hammer the competition and post an undefeated record.  While the WAC isn’t filled with high school teams, it is one of the lesser conferences in the country, and the fact that Boise State does (should) have 8 easy games on the schedule each year makes it difficult for me to give the team credit as a National Championship contender.

For the purposes of this post I will assume that Ohio State loses 1 game this season and still wins the Big Ten.  I will also assume that Alabama loses one game and still wins the SEC.  Finally, I will assume that Boise State will be the lone undefeated school this season.  Which of those teams should go to the National Championship? I would immediately eliminate Boise State.  With an undefeated season, Boise State will have 2 solid wins: Virginia Tech and Oregon State, with the Virginia Tech game considered the only quality win.  Ohio State, on the other hand (judging by the schedule), with 1 loss, would have 4-5 quality wins, and even more solid wins.  Alabama would have 6 quality wins and 9 solid wins even with one loss.  The simple fact is that Boise State does not have to deal with the week-in week-out grind that BCS conference teams do.

However, some have argued that Boise State proved that it could beat a top 10 team, so therefore should be put in the National Championship Game because they can “beat anyone.”  These people are either forgetting or ignoring the fact that bringing the best performance in 1 or 2 weeks is completely different than needing to bring it 9 or 10 times a season like an Alabama or Ohio State does.  Boise State has shown the ability to come out and play well in big games over the past few years.  They have shocked BCS schools.  However, the difference between Boise and these other schools is the fact that Boise can cruise through 75% of their season in order to prepare for one game on the schedule.  Alabama can’t do that.  If the Tide looked ahead 3 weeks to a game against Florida, then the team would get beat by either Penn State or Arkansas.  If the Tide came out flat in either of these games, the team would lose.  That is the big difference.  Boise State can and has cruised through past games.

Last season, the Broncos beat a very mediocre Nevada team 44-33.  After Boise took an early lead, Nevada staged a 2nd half comeback that fell just short, and included a stretch of the game where Boise could not stop the Nevada offense.  In addition, Boise played a game against Louisiana Tech in which the Broncos won 45-35.  Finally, Fresno State posed a challenge to Boise, as the Bulldog offense scored 34 points on the Bronco defense.  33 points, 34 points, and 35 points.  That is the amount of points that the Bronco defense gave up in 3 regular season games against opponents that could not be considering anything but mediocre.  However, in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against TCU, Boise State won 17-10 (in Andy Dalton’s worst performance of his career as TCU quarterback).  Now why did Boise’s defense give up 33, 34, and 35 points to WAC opponents, and only 10 to then undefeated TCU?  Either, these mediocre WAC teams have much better offenses than top 10 ranked TCU, or more reasonably, Boise State cruised through these regular season games even though they came out flat, and thereby were incredibly fresh when the bowl game came.

The big question is, how would Boise State have done against LSU, Georgia, and Florida if the Broncos played these teams instead of the WAC teams mentioned above?  Boise State came out very flat in these games, and cruised through to victory, but if the Broncos played top teams in these weeks, there is no way they would go undefeated.  In fact, I would be surprised if the Broncos won 2 of these 3 games against the SEC teams listed above.  Therefore, while Boise State is able to win its bowl games, and win the 1 big regular season game each year, there is no way to know or assume that Boise State could beat Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia in the regular season and then still come out fresh for a big non-conference game and a bowl game.  Assuming this and putting the Broncos in the National Championship Game under such an assumption is not fair to a 1 loss team out of the Big Ten or SEC, because the Broncos can come out flat in many games under their current schedule and still go undefeated.

Alabama, on the other hand, rarely had the option to come out flat.  Did the Tide come out flat when they beat Virginia Tech by 10 points in the opener last season?  Were they flat when they beat Ryan Mallett and the powerful Arkansas offense 35-7?  The closest the Tide came to playing flat was the Tennessee game, which was decided by a blocked field goal by the Alabama special teams.  However, Alabama had to bring it every week, and did so to earn themselves an undefeated season and a spot in the National Championship Game.

The big issue when deciding who will go the the National Championship Game is which teams had the best regular season, and the criteria go beyond solely record.  The criteria include record, strength of schedule, style points, etc.  If Boise State goes undefeated like last year, but only plays 1 or 2 quality opponents, it is extremely difficult to justify their schedule over a 1 loss SEC team or Big Ten team.  In addition, when the defense gives up 30+ points in multiple games to WAC opponents, it becomes even more difficult to justify this team’s success over a 1 loss BCS school, who didn’t have the opportunity to look past 8 conference games a year and only prepare for the big games.  As I said above, assuming that Boise State would go undefeated in the SEC, especially considering the Broncos struggles early in the game at times with WAC teams, and their struggles on defense with WAC teams, is simply not logical, and is unfair to the BCS conference teams.

I do feel bad that Boise State can not do too much about the scheduling problem that they have, and wish that things could change.  However, I am not here, and the BCS Committee is not here, to play favorites or simply give the proverbial “David” a chance.  It is a shame for Boise, but even though the team won all its games, and did everything it could, I can’t with a clear conscience put the team in the BCS National Championship Game simply because of this.  I can’t put them in when a 1 loss Ohio State or Alabama clearly has a more solid schedule strength, has more solid wins, and has cruised through and played less games flat than Boise.  I just can’t.  It is a shame for Boise, but until they join a BCS conference, or a playoff system is instituted, there is no way to know and would be wrong to assume that Boise can be a top tier team over the course of a full season, which is necessary to earn a spot in the National Championship Game.

College Football Conference Update

Yesterday, the big 5 from the Big XII (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) declared that they would all remain with the Big XII and not pursue other conference affiliations.  This declaration leaves the Big XII with 10 teams, the Big Ten with 12 teams, and the Pac 10 with 11 teams.  Expansion seems to have been abated temporarily, but the wheel will surely begin turning again soon, even if not with the same velocity.

The Pac 10 is not satisfied.  The conference was a few hours away from a “Super-Conference” with teams such as Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, among others.  The conference was a few hours away from taking a dominant foothold in college football from the Pacific to the Great Plains.  A few hours away from becoming the richest conference in the history of college football, with the combined effect of the big programs added and the launch of a conference television network.  The network is still in the works, and may be released soon, but it will not have the momentum and power that it would have had if the Big XII powers had joined the Pac 10.

What is next for the Pac 10?  Most likely, the conference will pursue a 12th team so that the conference can have a championship game.  The most likely candidate is Utah from the Mountain West.  However, the Pac 1o, more than any conference, was disappointed in the result of the expansion process, and lost the most yesterday afternoon.

The Big XII was the big winner from the expansion.  It seems illogical to say that the Big XII is the winner, considering the conference lost 2 teams, but the conference is a winner because it is still standing.  Hours before the top teams announced that they would stay in the Big XII, it looked as if the conference would lose 2 of the top 10 all-time programs (Texas and Oklahoma), along with many other notable programs, and thereby dissolve as a whole.  However, since the big programs declared their allegiance in the Big XII, the conference will stay afloat- barring some unforeseen last-minute changes.  In addition, the conference will remain the second best in the country in my opinion, and the conference teams will be more profitable than in the past, due to similar total revenues and less teams with which to share it. 

The Texas Longhorns were the big winners in terms of the individual programs.  Texas had two conferences catering to their wants, and the program utilized this leverage to the fullest advantage.  Texas forced Big XII commissioner Dan Beebe’s hand to the point that he allowed Texas to retain its revenue-sharing deal within the conference (which rendered the program extremely profitable relative to the rest of the conference), and he opened the door for Texas to launch its own television network, which will exponentially increase the program’s revenue.

The Big Ten was also a winner from the whole process, as the conference added Nebraska, a prestigious program that will almost certainly be ranked in the top 10 to begin next season.  In addition, with 12 teams, the conference added the necessary component through which to institute a conference championship, which the Big Ten has been seeking for years.

The Big East is a conference that is safe for now, but is certainly not out of the water.  The Big Ten appears to be satisfied with 12 teams at this point, but if it decides to add as many as 4 more teams, the Big East could be in trouble, as the Big Ten could undoubtedly seek programs such as Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse, among others.  The Big Ten has also reportedly targeted Notre Dame, but the loss of the Irish would not be a big problem for the survival of the Big East.  The focus now will shift from the Big XII to the Big East, and the Big East will be on the defensive.  More to come as more develops.

More Conference Changes

BREAKING NEWS:  Boise State is the next domino to fall in the NCAA-wide conference shuffle.  The Broncos moved from the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) to the Mountain West Conference.  Nebraska also officially announced that it would join the Big Ten today, as was expected. 

Today also brought as much speculation as answers.  Big XII schools such as Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State expressed interest in moving to the Pac 10.  Texas A&M was in discussion with the SEC about a possible conference move.  The SEC also still has interest in Texas and Oklahoma, among others, even though these schools expressed interest in the Pac 10 today.  The Big Ten has retained interest in Texas, although that proposition has become much less likely in the past few weeks.  Finally, if these powerhouses leave the Big XII for the SEC or Pac 10, the Mountain West may attempt to pick up some of the Big XII schools left behind, such as Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, among others.  The Big Ten may still also have interest in the northern Big XII schools, most notably Missouri.  So many possibilities to be decided in the next few weeks, and Bob Long’s Sports Blog will cover every development.

The school that intrigues me most in this roulette is Kansas.  Think about it.  This mediocre football school appears to be a school left behind as the Big XII may fall apart and the bigger football schools join other conferences.  However, Kansas has arguably the most prestigious college basketball program in the history of college basketball (apologies to UCLA, Kentucky, and North Carolina), and the team would be so far out of place in the Mountain West.  Does anyone else have a problem with Wyoming strolling into Allen Fieldhouse each year for a conference game?  I know I do and I know Kansas fans do.  Therefore, the Kansas football program appears to be keeping the university from switching to a big name conference, and the big story will be how this will affect the basketball team.  Another question is whether a conference like the Big Ten would take Kansas (even with the mediocre football program) because of the competition, prestige, and revenue the Jayhawk basketball program will bring to the conference.

A few important answers today led to even more questions, so stay tuned in the coming weeks.

Dominoes Falling in College Football Conferences: Big XII on the Short End

Today, two big shifts occurred in college football.  The supposed apocalypse of the college football conference landscape appears to be happening.  Now the only question is who will be left out of the party, and where teams will land at the end of the roulette.  Colorado officially accepted a bid to become a member of the Pac 10 Conference.  Nebraska has reportedly accepted an invitation to become a member of the Big Ten Conference, and a statement is expected to be released on Friday.

Therefore, the Big XII Conference, known to be the 2nd best conference in football in recent years, may cease to exist in the very near future.  The conference has already lost 2 teams (Nebraska and Colorado) and is now left with 10.  I also expect that Missouri, which is very unhappy with the treatment it has received with regard to revenue sharing in the Big XII, will bolt for the Big Ten very soon.  That leaves a conference that has already struggled with revenue compared to nearby conferences such as the Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC, with only 9 teams.  So what could the conference do to restore itself?  Pick up more teams? Not likely.  The Mountain West Conference, with teams such as Utah, TCU, and BYU, would be the hotbed from which to draw potential universities.  However, the problem with this solution is that the Mountain West is also trying to expand, and has reportedly offered a bid to Boise State from the WAC.  Therefore, the Mountain West is lobbying hard to expand its conference so that the conference isn’t looted for its talent like the Big XII is now.

However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mountain West is raided for its talent, and Boise State does not join.  Where will those teams go?  Does one really think that Boise (from the WAC), Utah, or BYU will go to the Big XII?  Certainly not based upon location compared to the Pac 10, and certainly not based upon revenue as compared to the Pac 10.  Therefore, the only team that could join the Big XII from the Mountain West would most likely be TCU.

So the best case scenario for the Big XII is that the conference loses the three teams that are almost certain to leave (Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri), and then picks up TCU from the Mountain West.  10 teams isn’t a terrible number, and I believe the conference would be very happy with this result.  However, the one key factor that has yet to be discussed is the influence of the SEC.  The SEC has reportedly had interest and contact with Texas and Texas A&M about a possible conference change.  The Big Ten has also had significant interest in Texas.  Then there is Oklahoma, which is also a potential target for the SEC.  If one of these three powerhouses leaves the Big XII (Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M), then most likely all will look to find new homes, and this would spell doom and the end of the Big XII Conference as we know it.

Therefore, to college football fans who do not quite have the whole picture in terms of the conference shifting, here is a cliffnotes version of what is most important.  Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri will leave.  The Big XII will attempt to acquire teams like TCU from the Mountain West to offset the departure of these three schools, but this is not what is important.  The Big XII could continue to thrive under 9 teams or even 8 teams, and the addition of a Mountain West school is not necessary.  What is essential for the future is the conference is the decision of these three teams; Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  These three teams are the mainstays of the conference, and Texas has major rivalries with both Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  If one of these three teams leaves the Big XII, at least one of the other two will follow, which will leave the conference depleted and will cause the third and final team to leave.  If this happens, this will end the confernece as we know it.  Therefore, when analyzing the conference shifts, and the future of the Big XII, worry not about Colorado or Nebraska, or whether the conference can entice TCU, but worry about what will happen to Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  Those three universities hold the conference in the palms of their hands at this point, and can drop it at any point they wish.

Big Ten Expansion…and More?

The most pressing issue cascading through the  college football landscape is that of conference expansion.  Leading the charge for expansion is the Big 10 Conference, whose last expansion occurred in 1989 when Penn State accepted an invitation to join the conference.  The Nittany Lions gave up their then independent status in football, and left the Atlantic 10 Conference in the other sports to join the Big Ten.

In 2010, the potential expansion again revolves around an indepedent football school.  Notre Dame, under new head coach Brian Kelly, has reportedly been invited to join the conference and give up its indepedent status in football and its Big East affiliation in basketball and other sports.  Coach Kelly has asserted that he would like the school to remain independent because of the ability to be a “national” program, and the ability to play any team it wants without restrictions.  It may be financially beneficial to remain independent as well, as the school has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game in the waiting if the team finishes in the top 8 in the Final BCS Standings.  In addition, the Fighting Irish have a lucrative network TV contract with NBC, which provides a lot of revenue for the school and most likely could not be matched by that of a conference team. 

However, if there were a conference that could provide revenue that rivals what Notre Dame makes now, it would be the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has lucrative contracts with both the ESPN Family of Networks and its own network, the Big Ten Network.  But the equal distribution of revenue, which potentially attracts teams such as Missouri from the Big XII to the Big Ten, may dissuade teams such as Notre Dame.  If the revenue needs to be shared equally with as many as 15 other teams, Notre Dame may be unable to acquire as much revenue within the Big Ten that it does now.  Certainly there are many pro’s and con’s for Notre Dame to consider as the conference expansion train appears to be rolling by very quickly.

Speaking of the Missouri Tigers, that program is also considering moving from the Big XII to the Big Ten.  In addition, the Big Ten has reportedly invited Nebraska to join.  Rumors have circulated that the Big Ten is a potential suitor for Texas, as well as Oklahoma, but Nebraska and Missouri make the most sense geographically and have generated the most talk of expansion.  Both member programs of the Red River Rivalry have remained silent on the issue to this point.  As stated, Missouri’s main interest in the Big Ten stems from the fact that the Big XII does not share revenue equally, and as a result the program does not receive as much TV revenue as Texas or Oklahoma.  Nebraska is a logical choice geographically for the Big Ten, which is the likely reason for that invitation.

The Big East did not escape unscathed from the long reach of the Big Ten.  Invitations have been reportedly extended to Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rutgers.  These schools would give the Big Ten an increased East Coast presence, as at this point only Penn State gives the conference such diversability. 

With the extension of so many invitations to the conference, the Big Ten could include up to 16 teams within a few years.  If one is doing the math, this expansion could spell the doom of the Big East and Big XII conferences.  The Big East could lose 4 schools to the Big Ten, including Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, and Notre Dame (in every sport but football).  At this point the Big East Conference would only include football schools Connecticut, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida.  That is it.  With schools such as Villanova and Georgetown competing at the FCS level, and schools such as St. Johns and Marquette which don’t have football programs at all, the conference could collapse upon itself because of the lack of strength and number from the football programs.  This could lead to a collapse of the entire conference as a whole, and the demise of the overall best college basketball conference since the most recent expansion before the 2005-2006 season.

The Big XII could face a similar fate.  With rumors of Colorado moving to the Pac-10, and the possibility of Texas and Oklahoma moving to either the Pac-10 or the SEC, the Big XII could lose up to 6 of its premier programs, leaving only the likes of Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, among others.  The Big XII could potentially wither as the Big East could due to the domino effect started by the Big Ten.

So what does this all mean? Could a situation really occur in which the Big Ten could include as many as 16 teams, Notre Dame could no longer be independent, and there could only be 4 major “super-conferences,” with the destruction of the Big XII and the Big East?  Will the history of rivalries such as Pittsburgh and West Virginia (the Backyard Brawl), Texas and Oklahoma (the Red River Rivalry), and Texas and Texas A&M, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (Bedlam), become traditions of the past?  These potential realities could all be realized with the right collapse of the dominoes in the conference expansion carousel. 

Is it good for football?  I tend to think no, as the beauty and excitement of rivalries will be compromised.  Sure, we will have 4 superconferences, but where will the excitement come from?  How will the Big Ten be so exciting when teams don’t even play half the teams in their conference?  How can a true conference champion be crowned with the possibility of 3 undefeated teams in a conference?  The only positive of this change to 4 superconferences would be the potential inclusion of teams such as Boise State and TCU in a conference like the Pac-10.  With this improvement, the 4 year debate about how to appropriately reward teams like Boise State, TCU, and Utah with their weak regular season schedules will end.  All these teams will be included in power conferences, and finally will need to prove themselves week in and week out.

With all these possibilities for conference expansion, it is apparant that there will be a major shift of some kind in the college football landscape.  Bob Long’s Sports Blog will follow the development every step of the way and keep you readers updates with every phase of the massive transition as the details emerge.

NCAA Tournament Round 2: What We Learned

After the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, which ended today, we learned that the Big 10 is a darn good conference.  The Big 10 leads all conferences with 3 teams in the Sweet 16; including Purdue, which is missing Robbie Hummel, and Michigan State, who lost Kalin Lucas for the rest of the season halfway through the Maryland game today.  The Big 10 is not a second tier conference below conferences like the Big East and Big XII anymore.

We learned that the Big East is not as good as we originally thought.  Although I have been pushing the power of the conference all year, I must admit that the Big East teams’ performance in the NCAA tournament has been less than impressive at times.  All that remains from the Big East are the top two teams, Syracuse and West Virginia.  However, with 2 teams remaining, the Big East is tied with the Big XII and SEC for 2nd in that catagory, trailing only the Big 10.  The conference still has power at the top, and both these teams have the opportunity to advance to the National Championship.  However, the Big East is not by far the best conference in basketball as was proposed throughout the season.  Instead, conferences like the Big 10 and Big XII are very comparable to the Big East.

We learned that the Mountain West was overrated.  The conference went a combined 2-4 in the tournament, and advanced zero teams to the Sweet 16.  Considering that the Pac 10 and A-10 were ranked behind the Mountain West in RPI before the NCAA tournament, and both these conferences have a team in the Sweet 16 and better overall records in the tournament, the Mountain West is a conference which was overrated by national pundits this season.

We learned that nothing is a sure thing.  Between the upsets of Kansas, Villanova, and Georgetown (in the first round), people have lost their final four teams and their national champions in their brackets.  And who pulled these upsets?  Northern Iowa, Saint Mary’s, and Ohio, respectively.  The success of small conference teams like these, as well as Cornell, has been admirable and has made for some very exciting and unexpected upsets. 

Finally, we learned that Cornell is a really good team.  The ability for Cornell to perform so well offensively against 2 great defensive teams in Temple and Wisconsin is scary for #1 seed Kentucky, who the Big Red will face in the Regional Semifinal.

Note to the Selection Committee about the ACC

Dear Committee Members,

First, allow me to thank you for your service to college basketball and for the long hours you put in this week in order to make the NCAA tournament a reality.

Second, I have a few questions and comments about some of your seedings.  Most of my problem stems from the treatment of the ACC.  The Atlantic Coast Conference is arguably the 4th best conference in the country.  The Big East, Big XII, and yes, the Big 10 is better than the ACC.  The Big 10 has Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State all at 5 seeds or lower.  The ACC has 2 teams at 5 seeds or lower.  In addition, the ACC had 6 bids while the Big 10 had 5, with Illinois as a big time snub.  Therefore, the ACC is worse at the top than the Big 10, and is no more deep than the Big 10.

This fact establishes that the ACC conference records are inflated compared to the 3 conferences above them, because other than Maryland and Duke, the ACC is nothing but average.  Therefore, my biggest problem was with the seeding of Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 19-10 (not even 20 wins), 9-7 in the ACC, and finished the season 1-5 including a 21 point throttling by ACC bottomfeeder Miami.  That is not and should not be good enough for a 9 seed.  Judging by the resume and facts, Wake Forest should instead by the top seed…in the NIT.  Yes, they have some big wins, but the way the team finished and the fact that it doesn’t have 20 wins isn’t and shouldn’t be enough to make the NCAA tournament.

My other problem is the seeding of Clemson.  The team earned a 7 seed.  The Tigers are 21-10 and had less impressive wins than Wake Forest.  Clemson should be in over Wake Forest because the team did not have a bad slide to end the season.  However, when judging their matchup against Missouri, it is arguable that the teams’ seeds could be switched, and that this seeding would be much more appropriate.  Missouri as a 7 seed, Clemson as a 10 seed instead of vice versa; this would make much more sense because Missouri has a better record, in a better conference, with wins over Kansas State, Old Dominion, and Texas.  That resume is considerably better than Clemson, who has a worse record, in a worse conference, with wins over Butler, Florida State, and Maryland.  The Missouri wins, especially the win over Kansas State, trumps those of Clemson.

Those are my two examples of how the ACC was completely overrated in the bracket selection.  While these teams are talented, they simply did not have the quality of seasons required to earn the seeds they did.  There were multiple teams behind Wake and Clemson, such as Missouri and Louisville, who had much better seasons and were unfairly ranked behind these two ACC teams.  The ACC should not be given special privileges simply because it is the ACC.  The teams should be evaluated fairly based upon record, big wins, and strength of schedule.  The ACC did not provide an in-conference schedule comparable to that provided by the Big East and Big XII.  Why then, when Wake and Clemson did not play out of conference schedules much, if at all, stronger than Louisville and Missouri, should they be rewarded and seeded ahead of these teams?  The common thread is their ACC ties, and it seemed very clear on Sunday that the ACC was very overrated by the Selection Committee.

Thanks once more for your service and enjoy the tournament,

Bob Long