Podcast: College Basketball 2010 Preview

Title: College Basketball 2010 Preview

This Bob Long’s Sports Podcast includes a full preview of College Basketball, from conference winners, to surprise teams, to who you can expect to see at the top come March. With Chris Pierangeli.

Link: http://bobsportsblog.podomatic.com/entry/2010-11-10T21_34_58-08_00

College Football Conference Update

Yesterday, the big 5 from the Big XII (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) declared that they would all remain with the Big XII and not pursue other conference affiliations.  This declaration leaves the Big XII with 10 teams, the Big Ten with 12 teams, and the Pac 10 with 11 teams.  Expansion seems to have been abated temporarily, but the wheel will surely begin turning again soon, even if not with the same velocity.

The Pac 10 is not satisfied.  The conference was a few hours away from a “Super-Conference” with teams such as Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, among others.  The conference was a few hours away from taking a dominant foothold in college football from the Pacific to the Great Plains.  A few hours away from becoming the richest conference in the history of college football, with the combined effect of the big programs added and the launch of a conference television network.  The network is still in the works, and may be released soon, but it will not have the momentum and power that it would have had if the Big XII powers had joined the Pac 10.

What is next for the Pac 10?  Most likely, the conference will pursue a 12th team so that the conference can have a championship game.  The most likely candidate is Utah from the Mountain West.  However, the Pac 1o, more than any conference, was disappointed in the result of the expansion process, and lost the most yesterday afternoon.

The Big XII was the big winner from the expansion.  It seems illogical to say that the Big XII is the winner, considering the conference lost 2 teams, but the conference is a winner because it is still standing.  Hours before the top teams announced that they would stay in the Big XII, it looked as if the conference would lose 2 of the top 10 all-time programs (Texas and Oklahoma), along with many other notable programs, and thereby dissolve as a whole.  However, since the big programs declared their allegiance in the Big XII, the conference will stay afloat- barring some unforeseen last-minute changes.  In addition, the conference will remain the second best in the country in my opinion, and the conference teams will be more profitable than in the past, due to similar total revenues and less teams with which to share it. 

The Texas Longhorns were the big winners in terms of the individual programs.  Texas had two conferences catering to their wants, and the program utilized this leverage to the fullest advantage.  Texas forced Big XII commissioner Dan Beebe’s hand to the point that he allowed Texas to retain its revenue-sharing deal within the conference (which rendered the program extremely profitable relative to the rest of the conference), and he opened the door for Texas to launch its own television network, which will exponentially increase the program’s revenue.

The Big Ten was also a winner from the whole process, as the conference added Nebraska, a prestigious program that will almost certainly be ranked in the top 10 to begin next season.  In addition, with 12 teams, the conference added the necessary component through which to institute a conference championship, which the Big Ten has been seeking for years.

The Big East is a conference that is safe for now, but is certainly not out of the water.  The Big Ten appears to be satisfied with 12 teams at this point, but if it decides to add as many as 4 more teams, the Big East could be in trouble, as the Big Ten could undoubtedly seek programs such as Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse, among others.  The Big Ten has also reportedly targeted Notre Dame, but the loss of the Irish would not be a big problem for the survival of the Big East.  The focus now will shift from the Big XII to the Big East, and the Big East will be on the defensive.  More to come as more develops.

More Conference Changes

BREAKING NEWS:  Boise State is the next domino to fall in the NCAA-wide conference shuffle.  The Broncos moved from the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) to the Mountain West Conference.  Nebraska also officially announced that it would join the Big Ten today, as was expected. 

Today also brought as much speculation as answers.  Big XII schools such as Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State expressed interest in moving to the Pac 10.  Texas A&M was in discussion with the SEC about a possible conference move.  The SEC also still has interest in Texas and Oklahoma, among others, even though these schools expressed interest in the Pac 10 today.  The Big Ten has retained interest in Texas, although that proposition has become much less likely in the past few weeks.  Finally, if these powerhouses leave the Big XII for the SEC or Pac 10, the Mountain West may attempt to pick up some of the Big XII schools left behind, such as Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, among others.  The Big Ten may still also have interest in the northern Big XII schools, most notably Missouri.  So many possibilities to be decided in the next few weeks, and Bob Long’s Sports Blog will cover every development.

The school that intrigues me most in this roulette is Kansas.  Think about it.  This mediocre football school appears to be a school left behind as the Big XII may fall apart and the bigger football schools join other conferences.  However, Kansas has arguably the most prestigious college basketball program in the history of college basketball (apologies to UCLA, Kentucky, and North Carolina), and the team would be so far out of place in the Mountain West.  Does anyone else have a problem with Wyoming strolling into Allen Fieldhouse each year for a conference game?  I know I do and I know Kansas fans do.  Therefore, the Kansas football program appears to be keeping the university from switching to a big name conference, and the big story will be how this will affect the basketball team.  Another question is whether a conference like the Big Ten would take Kansas (even with the mediocre football program) because of the competition, prestige, and revenue the Jayhawk basketball program will bring to the conference.

A few important answers today led to even more questions, so stay tuned in the coming weeks.

Dominoes Falling in College Football Conferences: Big XII on the Short End

Today, two big shifts occurred in college football.  The supposed apocalypse of the college football conference landscape appears to be happening.  Now the only question is who will be left out of the party, and where teams will land at the end of the roulette.  Colorado officially accepted a bid to become a member of the Pac 10 Conference.  Nebraska has reportedly accepted an invitation to become a member of the Big Ten Conference, and a statement is expected to be released on Friday.

Therefore, the Big XII Conference, known to be the 2nd best conference in football in recent years, may cease to exist in the very near future.  The conference has already lost 2 teams (Nebraska and Colorado) and is now left with 10.  I also expect that Missouri, which is very unhappy with the treatment it has received with regard to revenue sharing in the Big XII, will bolt for the Big Ten very soon.  That leaves a conference that has already struggled with revenue compared to nearby conferences such as the Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC, with only 9 teams.  So what could the conference do to restore itself?  Pick up more teams? Not likely.  The Mountain West Conference, with teams such as Utah, TCU, and BYU, would be the hotbed from which to draw potential universities.  However, the problem with this solution is that the Mountain West is also trying to expand, and has reportedly offered a bid to Boise State from the WAC.  Therefore, the Mountain West is lobbying hard to expand its conference so that the conference isn’t looted for its talent like the Big XII is now.

However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Mountain West is raided for its talent, and Boise State does not join.  Where will those teams go?  Does one really think that Boise (from the WAC), Utah, or BYU will go to the Big XII?  Certainly not based upon location compared to the Pac 10, and certainly not based upon revenue as compared to the Pac 10.  Therefore, the only team that could join the Big XII from the Mountain West would most likely be TCU.

So the best case scenario for the Big XII is that the conference loses the three teams that are almost certain to leave (Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri), and then picks up TCU from the Mountain West.  10 teams isn’t a terrible number, and I believe the conference would be very happy with this result.  However, the one key factor that has yet to be discussed is the influence of the SEC.  The SEC has reportedly had interest and contact with Texas and Texas A&M about a possible conference change.  The Big Ten has also had significant interest in Texas.  Then there is Oklahoma, which is also a potential target for the SEC.  If one of these three powerhouses leaves the Big XII (Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M), then most likely all will look to find new homes, and this would spell doom and the end of the Big XII Conference as we know it.

Therefore, to college football fans who do not quite have the whole picture in terms of the conference shifting, here is a cliffnotes version of what is most important.  Colorado, Nebraska, and Missouri will leave.  The Big XII will attempt to acquire teams like TCU from the Mountain West to offset the departure of these three schools, but this is not what is important.  The Big XII could continue to thrive under 9 teams or even 8 teams, and the addition of a Mountain West school is not necessary.  What is essential for the future is the conference is the decision of these three teams; Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  These three teams are the mainstays of the conference, and Texas has major rivalries with both Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  If one of these three teams leaves the Big XII, at least one of the other two will follow, which will leave the conference depleted and will cause the third and final team to leave.  If this happens, this will end the confernece as we know it.  Therefore, when analyzing the conference shifts, and the future of the Big XII, worry not about Colorado or Nebraska, or whether the conference can entice TCU, but worry about what will happen to Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.  Those three universities hold the conference in the palms of their hands at this point, and can drop it at any point they wish.

Nebraska Reportedly to the Big Ten

BREAKING NEWS:  The first domino has fallen.  Nebraska has reportedly accepted an offer to join the Big Ten Conference today.  Analysis of this decision and the impact it will have will be provided later today.  Brace yourselves folks, this could be a wild ride.

Big Ten Expansion…and More?

The most pressing issue cascading through the  college football landscape is that of conference expansion.  Leading the charge for expansion is the Big 10 Conference, whose last expansion occurred in 1989 when Penn State accepted an invitation to join the conference.  The Nittany Lions gave up their then independent status in football, and left the Atlantic 10 Conference in the other sports to join the Big Ten.

In 2010, the potential expansion again revolves around an indepedent football school.  Notre Dame, under new head coach Brian Kelly, has reportedly been invited to join the conference and give up its indepedent status in football and its Big East affiliation in basketball and other sports.  Coach Kelly has asserted that he would like the school to remain independent because of the ability to be a “national” program, and the ability to play any team it wants without restrictions.  It may be financially beneficial to remain independent as well, as the school has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game in the waiting if the team finishes in the top 8 in the Final BCS Standings.  In addition, the Fighting Irish have a lucrative network TV contract with NBC, which provides a lot of revenue for the school and most likely could not be matched by that of a conference team. 

However, if there were a conference that could provide revenue that rivals what Notre Dame makes now, it would be the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has lucrative contracts with both the ESPN Family of Networks and its own network, the Big Ten Network.  But the equal distribution of revenue, which potentially attracts teams such as Missouri from the Big XII to the Big Ten, may dissuade teams such as Notre Dame.  If the revenue needs to be shared equally with as many as 15 other teams, Notre Dame may be unable to acquire as much revenue within the Big Ten that it does now.  Certainly there are many pro’s and con’s for Notre Dame to consider as the conference expansion train appears to be rolling by very quickly.

Speaking of the Missouri Tigers, that program is also considering moving from the Big XII to the Big Ten.  In addition, the Big Ten has reportedly invited Nebraska to join.  Rumors have circulated that the Big Ten is a potential suitor for Texas, as well as Oklahoma, but Nebraska and Missouri make the most sense geographically and have generated the most talk of expansion.  Both member programs of the Red River Rivalry have remained silent on the issue to this point.  As stated, Missouri’s main interest in the Big Ten stems from the fact that the Big XII does not share revenue equally, and as a result the program does not receive as much TV revenue as Texas or Oklahoma.  Nebraska is a logical choice geographically for the Big Ten, which is the likely reason for that invitation.

The Big East did not escape unscathed from the long reach of the Big Ten.  Invitations have been reportedly extended to Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rutgers.  These schools would give the Big Ten an increased East Coast presence, as at this point only Penn State gives the conference such diversability. 

With the extension of so many invitations to the conference, the Big Ten could include up to 16 teams within a few years.  If one is doing the math, this expansion could spell the doom of the Big East and Big XII conferences.  The Big East could lose 4 schools to the Big Ten, including Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, and Notre Dame (in every sport but football).  At this point the Big East Conference would only include football schools Connecticut, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida.  That is it.  With schools such as Villanova and Georgetown competing at the FCS level, and schools such as St. Johns and Marquette which don’t have football programs at all, the conference could collapse upon itself because of the lack of strength and number from the football programs.  This could lead to a collapse of the entire conference as a whole, and the demise of the overall best college basketball conference since the most recent expansion before the 2005-2006 season.

The Big XII could face a similar fate.  With rumors of Colorado moving to the Pac-10, and the possibility of Texas and Oklahoma moving to either the Pac-10 or the SEC, the Big XII could lose up to 6 of its premier programs, leaving only the likes of Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, among others.  The Big XII could potentially wither as the Big East could due to the domino effect started by the Big Ten.

So what does this all mean? Could a situation really occur in which the Big Ten could include as many as 16 teams, Notre Dame could no longer be independent, and there could only be 4 major “super-conferences,” with the destruction of the Big XII and the Big East?  Will the history of rivalries such as Pittsburgh and West Virginia (the Backyard Brawl), Texas and Oklahoma (the Red River Rivalry), and Texas and Texas A&M, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (Bedlam), become traditions of the past?  These potential realities could all be realized with the right collapse of the dominoes in the conference expansion carousel. 

Is it good for football?  I tend to think no, as the beauty and excitement of rivalries will be compromised.  Sure, we will have 4 superconferences, but where will the excitement come from?  How will the Big Ten be so exciting when teams don’t even play half the teams in their conference?  How can a true conference champion be crowned with the possibility of 3 undefeated teams in a conference?  The only positive of this change to 4 superconferences would be the potential inclusion of teams such as Boise State and TCU in a conference like the Pac-10.  With this improvement, the 4 year debate about how to appropriately reward teams like Boise State, TCU, and Utah with their weak regular season schedules will end.  All these teams will be included in power conferences, and finally will need to prove themselves week in and week out.

With all these possibilities for conference expansion, it is apparant that there will be a major shift of some kind in the college football landscape.  Bob Long’s Sports Blog will follow the development every step of the way and keep you readers updates with every phase of the massive transition as the details emerge.

A 96 Team NCAA Tournament (Part 2)

It now appears very likely that the NCAA tournament will expand to 96 teams in the near future.  The expansion could occur as early as 2014, or even as early as next season if CBS opts out of its $6 billion contract that grants the network exclusive broadcasting rights to the tournament.  (The first entry on this subject was posted on February 6th, 2010, entitled “A 96 Team NCAA Tournament”)

Big 10 commissioner Jim Delany said Wednesday after the NCAA Commissioners meeting that NCAA tournament expansion is “probable.”  NCAA Vice President for Basketball and Business Strategies Greg Shaheen gave hints in his press conference April 1st that the expansion may occur.  He stated that a majority of the 88 NCAA championships had been expanded in the past 10 years, and that it is not outlandish to imagine the NCAA expanding in the near future.

In a word, the expansion is ridiculous.  It is solely about the money, and if someone else would like to give me another reason why the NCAA is doing this, I would love to hear it.  And don’t say that the expansion is to get deserving teams like Virginia Tech and Illinois into the tournament, because that is just not true.  If that was the case, then the tournament could have been expanded to 68 teams to get those final few “snubs” into the tournament.  There would be four play in games instead of one, and each of the 16 seeds would be filled in this manner.  It would actually strengthen the tournament field while allowing bubble teams into the tournament.  If there were to be an expansion, that is exactly how it should be done.  But that isn’t the case.  Simply for the money, he NCAA wants to expand to 96 teams, which would require byes for the top 32 seeds and would ensure an extra round of 32 games played by seeds 33-96.

The fact is, the tournament will be completely diluted by the expansion to 96 teams.  This year, the selection committee was struggling to find 34 deserving teams for at-large bids.  With 96 bids, the bubble will almost cease to exist, and the University of Phoenix will have a good opportunity to make the tournament.  In all seriousness, consider some of the teams that would have made the NCAA tournament under the 96 team system.  These teams are all rated from 75th-85th respectively in the RPI: Northeastern, Illinois State, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Portland, Wright State, Fairfield, St. Johns, IUPUI, Morehead State, and Weber State.  More than half of these teams would make the NCAA tournament.  Sounds scintillating and spectacular, doesn’t it.  Isn’t this why we fill out our brackets in anticipation each year?  To see who is going to win the Weber State vs. Northeastern game?  If not, then get ready for it, because that is what it will become.

Not only will the tournament be a waste of time in the first (pseudo) round where not everyone plays, but the regular season and conference tournaments will be rendered unimportant as well.  Why should San Diego State play its heart out in the Mountain West Championship Game when, instead of being  a team that needs to get the conference auto bid to make the tournament, the Aztecs are a lock for the tournament because of so many extra bids?  Why should Saint Mary’s play hard against Gonzaga when the Gaels would be guaranteed a bid and would have nothing to play for in the conference tournament?  And in terms of the regular season, why should Louisville have to lay everything on the floor against Syracuse (twice) when that game doesn’t really matter under the new system, and the Cardinals just need to play decent and not have too many bad losses to make the tournament?  The answer is that these teams wouldn’t and shouldn’t have to play hard, because their NCAA tournament berths are all but set.  In order to add another 31 games to the NCAA tournament, the NCAA has made the first 4 months of the season worthless by making the qualifying standards for the tournament so low.  Some tradeoff by the NCAA.

So in addition to lowering the playing quality of the regular season, the conference championships, and the first round of the NCAA tournament, what else could be wrong with the system?  The new system would also take away from what fans love most about the NCAA tournament…the upsets.  With byes for the top 32 seeds, teams seeded 33-96 are at a severe disadvantage to advance far into the NCAA tournament.  Directly following Championship Week, the teams seeded 9-24 in each region would need to play 3 games in 6 days to advance to the Sweet 16, and 4 games in 8 days to advance to the Elite 8.  Consider Cornell, Saint Mary’s, and Northern Iowa, all of whom advanced to the Sweet 16.  Under the new system, these teams would have played their first games on either Thursday or Friday, then in the 2nd round on Saturday or Sunday would have played a completely fresh, higher seeded team (Temple, Richmond, and UNLV, respectively).  Then the teams would have needed to play the following Tuesday or Wednesday against a very high seeded team (Wisconsin, Villanova, and Kansas, respectively).  Would the tournament still have produced these 3 entertaining cinderella stories.  I find it VERY difficult to believe that the extra game in a 6 day span would not have affected these lower seeded teams on their Sweet 16 runs. 

To further this point (and yes, I wrote about this in my Feb 6th entry), consider the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, who pulled off arguably the greatest upset of all time to beat Georgetown in the National Championship Game 25 years ago yesterday.  It was an absolutely unbelievable story which no one associated with college basketball will ever forget.  The scene of Ed Pinckney and Rollie Massimino celebrating like little kids after the game is inspiring to all.  The question is, would Nova have won the National Championship under this new system?  There is little or no difference between the resume of an 8 seed and that of a 9 seed.  Villanova, the 8th seed, played Dayton, the 9th seed in the first round, and that easily could have been reversed.  Let’s say that Nova was instead the 9 seed, and had to play the region’s 24th seed before advancing to play Dayton, the 8 seed.  Nova only beat Dayton by 2 points when the team was fresh, so who knows how the team would have played with tired legs.  Then, if the team beat Dayton, it would have had to come back 3 days later to play top seeded Michigan, who had played 1 less game in that 6 day span than Villanova.  Would Villanova have been able to overcome this severe disadvantage to defeat the mighty, top seeded Wolverines?  Maybe, but maybe not too.  Maybe the Wildcats would have been too tired and too sore from playing an extra game in a period of 6 days to defeat Michigan.  Maybe the best cinderella story in the history of college basketball never would have happened.  And  by this reasoning, maybe another cinderella story of the Villanova caliber could never occur again.  Is that good for college basketball?  I can not see how that could be. 

By my count, this means that the regular season, conference tournaments, first round of the NCAA tournaments, and cinderella stories that emerge later in the NCAA tournament would all be ruined by this new system.  Not to mention the STUDENT-athletes that advance far into the tournament would miss upwards of 2 weeks of class, whereas now most students miss only about 1 week.  So, just to clarify, what was the reason to try to switch the tournament system when it was at the height of its popularity among fans, players, and coaches.  Oh, that’s right, the money, just the money.  As John Feinstein said in his Washington Post article today, ”It makes cents, but no sense.”  The NCAA is going to make a lot of “cents” by expanding the NCAA tournament.

NCAA Tournament Round 2: What We Learned

After the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, which ended today, we learned that the Big 10 is a darn good conference.  The Big 10 leads all conferences with 3 teams in the Sweet 16; including Purdue, which is missing Robbie Hummel, and Michigan State, who lost Kalin Lucas for the rest of the season halfway through the Maryland game today.  The Big 10 is not a second tier conference below conferences like the Big East and Big XII anymore.

We learned that the Big East is not as good as we originally thought.  Although I have been pushing the power of the conference all year, I must admit that the Big East teams’ performance in the NCAA tournament has been less than impressive at times.  All that remains from the Big East are the top two teams, Syracuse and West Virginia.  However, with 2 teams remaining, the Big East is tied with the Big XII and SEC for 2nd in that catagory, trailing only the Big 10.  The conference still has power at the top, and both these teams have the opportunity to advance to the National Championship.  However, the Big East is not by far the best conference in basketball as was proposed throughout the season.  Instead, conferences like the Big 10 and Big XII are very comparable to the Big East.

We learned that the Mountain West was overrated.  The conference went a combined 2-4 in the tournament, and advanced zero teams to the Sweet 16.  Considering that the Pac 10 and A-10 were ranked behind the Mountain West in RPI before the NCAA tournament, and both these conferences have a team in the Sweet 16 and better overall records in the tournament, the Mountain West is a conference which was overrated by national pundits this season.

We learned that nothing is a sure thing.  Between the upsets of Kansas, Villanova, and Georgetown (in the first round), people have lost their final four teams and their national champions in their brackets.  And who pulled these upsets?  Northern Iowa, Saint Mary’s, and Ohio, respectively.  The success of small conference teams like these, as well as Cornell, has been admirable and has made for some very exciting and unexpected upsets. 

Finally, we learned that Cornell is a really good team.  The ability for Cornell to perform so well offensively against 2 great defensive teams in Temple and Wisconsin is scary for #1 seed Kentucky, who the Big Red will face in the Regional Semifinal.

Note to the Selection Committee about the ACC

Dear Committee Members,

First, allow me to thank you for your service to college basketball and for the long hours you put in this week in order to make the NCAA tournament a reality.

Second, I have a few questions and comments about some of your seedings.  Most of my problem stems from the treatment of the ACC.  The Atlantic Coast Conference is arguably the 4th best conference in the country.  The Big East, Big XII, and yes, the Big 10 is better than the ACC.  The Big 10 has Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State all at 5 seeds or lower.  The ACC has 2 teams at 5 seeds or lower.  In addition, the ACC had 6 bids while the Big 10 had 5, with Illinois as a big time snub.  Therefore, the ACC is worse at the top than the Big 10, and is no more deep than the Big 10.

This fact establishes that the ACC conference records are inflated compared to the 3 conferences above them, because other than Maryland and Duke, the ACC is nothing but average.  Therefore, my biggest problem was with the seeding of Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 19-10 (not even 20 wins), 9-7 in the ACC, and finished the season 1-5 including a 21 point throttling by ACC bottomfeeder Miami.  That is not and should not be good enough for a 9 seed.  Judging by the resume and facts, Wake Forest should instead by the top seed…in the NIT.  Yes, they have some big wins, but the way the team finished and the fact that it doesn’t have 20 wins isn’t and shouldn’t be enough to make the NCAA tournament.

My other problem is the seeding of Clemson.  The team earned a 7 seed.  The Tigers are 21-10 and had less impressive wins than Wake Forest.  Clemson should be in over Wake Forest because the team did not have a bad slide to end the season.  However, when judging their matchup against Missouri, it is arguable that the teams’ seeds could be switched, and that this seeding would be much more appropriate.  Missouri as a 7 seed, Clemson as a 10 seed instead of vice versa; this would make much more sense because Missouri has a better record, in a better conference, with wins over Kansas State, Old Dominion, and Texas.  That resume is considerably better than Clemson, who has a worse record, in a worse conference, with wins over Butler, Florida State, and Maryland.  The Missouri wins, especially the win over Kansas State, trumps those of Clemson.

Those are my two examples of how the ACC was completely overrated in the bracket selection.  While these teams are talented, they simply did not have the quality of seasons required to earn the seeds they did.  There were multiple teams behind Wake and Clemson, such as Missouri and Louisville, who had much better seasons and were unfairly ranked behind these two ACC teams.  The ACC should not be given special privileges simply because it is the ACC.  The teams should be evaluated fairly based upon record, big wins, and strength of schedule.  The ACC did not provide an in-conference schedule comparable to that provided by the Big East and Big XII.  Why then, when Wake and Clemson did not play out of conference schedules much, if at all, stronger than Louisville and Missouri, should they be rewarded and seeded ahead of these teams?  The common thread is their ACC ties, and it seemed very clear on Sunday that the ACC was very overrated by the Selection Committee.

Thanks once more for your service and enjoy the tournament,

Bob Long

What Teams Need to do during Championship Week

Entering Championship Week, the bubble includes teams that need to still win some games over quality teams in order to ensure an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament.  Here are some of the most prominent bubble teams and what they need to do to get a bid (obviously some bids will be determined by performance of other teams in other conference tournaments):

ACC:

Wake Forest–Needs 3 wins.  Could be a win today against Clemson and 2 in the ACC tournament, or a loss today and 3 in the ACC tournament.  However, after going on a 4 game slide, the Demon Deacons now have a good deal of work to do before it can ensure a bid into the NCAA tournament.

Florida State–The Noles are in the mix even with an opening round loss in the ACC tournament, and 1 win would almost ensure a bid.  2 wins would make Florida State a lock.

Georgia Tech–With an 8-9 record since January 5th, the Yellow Jackets have a lot of work to do.  The team needs at least a trip to the semifinals to put itself on the back edge of the bubble on Selection Sunday.  A finals appearance would put the Jackets in the mix, and a conference championship is the only thing that will ensure Georgia Tech a bid.

Virginia Tech–1 win will put the Hokies squarely on the bubble, 2 wins should put the team in, and 0 wins will keep the team on the bubble, but would severely hurt the Hokies’ chances for an at-large bid.

Big XII:

Top 7 teams are in, bottom 5 teams have no chance at an at-large bid and need to win the conference tournament to get a bid.

Big East:

Marquette–LOCK

Louisville–LOCK

Notre Dame–LOCK

Connecticut–2 games to put the Huskies in the mix, 3 to be a lock (3rd win would be over Villanova, giving them another win over a RPI Top 25 team).

Seton Hall–Although I disagree with the treatment of Seton Hall, because I think they should only need 1 win to get in, the Pirates need at least 2, but most likely 3 to be in the mix for a bid (3rd win would be over Pitt).  A trip to the finals would make the Pirates a lock for the tournament.

Cincinnati–needs to win the Big East Tournament, and has no chance for an at-large bid.

Big 10:

Illinois–Needs 2 wins, which would give the Illini 20 wins and 2 more wins over ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Ohio State).  Under 2 wins may not be enough to put the Illini in, as that 2nd win over Ohio State is what would put the team over the top.

Pac-10:

Washington/Arizona State–These teams are on a collision course to play in the semifinals of the Pac-10 tournament as the 3 seed and 2 seed, respectively.  The winner of this game becomes a lock for an at-large bid, and the loser will most likely be eliminated from tournament contention.

California–1 win in the Pac 10 tournament and the Bears are in as a lock.  Even with a loss, the Bears are still in the mix for an at-large bid. 

Every other teams needs to win the Pac 10 tournament, and has no chance for an at-large bid.

SEC:

Florida–The Gators need 1 win to put themselves in the mix, but would like to get 2 wins, because the team would play bubble foe Mississippi State in the 2nd game.  A win by Mississippi State over Florida would raise eyebrows with the committee, and may result in the Bulldogs being picked over Florida for the NCAA tournament depending on Miss St.’s performance after a win over Florida.

Ole Miss–1 win should do the job because the team’s first game will most likely to be played against Tennessee.  This win would give the Rebels a much needed quality win over a ranked team.  With a loss the Rebels are out.

Mississippi State–The Bulldogs need to win 2 games at least (which would advance the team to the finals).  Depending upon the play of other teams, Mississippi State may need to win the SEC tournament to earn an automatic bid.

Mountain West:

UNLV–1 win will put the Runnin Rebels in the mix, and 2 wins (meaning most likely a win over BYU), will make UNLV a lock.  A loss would eliminate UNLV.

San Diego State–1 win will put the Aztecs in the mix, but the team could really use a quality win in its 2nd game against New Mexico in order to ensure a bid.  Like UNLV, a loss will put the Aztecs out of contention. 

Other than BYU and New Mexico, which are locks, every other team needs to win the conference tournament and can not earn an at-large bid.

Atlantic 10:

Rhode Island/Dayton/Saint Louis/Everyone else—Need to win the A-10 tournament, and can not do enough with the little time and opportunities remaining to earn an at-large bid.  Rhode Island and Dayton fell out of the race towards the end of the season.  Saint Louis didn’t do enough early, and their late season success isn’t enough to make up for what they didn’t do in the nonconference.

Other Conferences:

UTEP–LOCK

Utah State–needs to win the WAC tournament, as the Aggies’ schedule strength severely hurts their at-large chances.

Old Dominion–LOCK (have advanced to the CAA conference championship, and even with a loss they are in)

UAB–Needs to win the Conference USA tournament

Saint Mary’s–Needs to either beat Gonzaga or win the WCC tournament, the Gaels resume hasn’t been strong enough to include in the NCAA tournament without one or both of these situations occurring

Memphis– Most likely needs to win the Conference USA tournament, but a championship game loss to UTEP may put the Tigers in the mix on Selection Sunday.