TCU to Join Big East

TCU has accepted an invitation to become the 17th member of the Big East Conference and the 9th football member, beginning in the 2012-2013 season.  The move puts the basketball conference in a very precarious position, as a league with 17 members, with potentially more members to come, makes scheduling, organization, and distribution of revenue very difficult.  By comparison, the 2nd largest basketball conference, the Atlantic 10, has 14 members, and has neither the money nor the national prominence of the Big East.  Such a prominent conference with so many teams will be difficult to manage.  However, like most decisions with regard to conference realignment, it was driven by football and the money that comes with it.

Big East football is struggling, and its position as a major football conference has been in jeopardy.  The BCS evaluation period for the Big East’s automatic bid ends in December 2011, and recent history suggests that the conference is not always worthy of an automatic BCS bid.  An addition of a perennial power like TCU is essential for the Big East to retain its BCS automatic bid and the revenue that comes with it.  The Big East will be able to report TCU’s accomplishments and prominence to the BCS for this evaluation, which will most likely secure the BCS automatic bid until the next evaluation period for the 2016-2017 season.  Also, the addition of the Dallas television market, one of the top 5 markets in the country, is a major benefit for the Big East.

The move to a major conference was important for TCU as well.  By joining the Big East, TCU will have an opportunity to earn a BCS bid every year, without concern about BCS rankings or the image of non-automatic qualifying schools.  In addition, the Horned Frogs’ strength of schedule will improve with the move from the Mountain West to the Big East.  The opportunities that exist for the TCU football program in the Big East were unmatched.  The decision to move to the Big East was a perfect match for both entities, as both were filling a void for the other, and now both are in a much better position athletically and financially moving forward.

Where does the Big East move from here?  With 17 schools for basketball, and 9 schools for football, an addition of at least 1 more school is likely.  The Big East desires at least 10 football schools so that it can lobby to the NCAA, just as the Big XII did, for a conference championship game, even though traditional NCAA regulations require 12 teams for a conference championship game.  Candidates for the 10th football spot include Conference USA teams like UCF, Memphis, and Houston, among others.  Another possible addition for football is Villanova, which is already a basketball school in the Big East with a football program at the FCS level.  The offer was made to Villanova to move the football program to the Big East at the beginning of this season.  The potential move by Villanova is currently being reviewed by the VU Athletic Department, and is being led by Athletic Director Vince Necastro.  The decision will be made by early Spring 2011, according to President Father Donohue.  I have been strongly against the potential move from the FCS to the FBS, for many reasons (See my Letter to the VU Athletic Director and the President, http://bobsportsblog.wordpress.com/2010/09/10/nova-to-the-big-east-in-football/).

How will the Big East change beyond football with the addition of TCU?  First, the scheduling and organization of basketball will change dramatically.  At this point, each conference team plays all other teams at least once, and plays 3 teams twice in the regular season, which fulfills the 18 game conference schedule.  With the addition of TCU, and perhaps more schools, the number of repeat conference games per season will decrease or even disappear, which would lead to more balanced scheduling but greater disparity among the quality of teams in the Big East.  In addition, the format of conference tournaments in all sports will need to be changed significantly.  A 17 team conference will become extremely difficult to schedule efficiently and effectively.

Another concern is the travel for TCU.  The Big East consists of teams primarily on the Atlantic Coast, and primarily  in the North.  Teams like Marquette, Depaul, Notre Dame, and South Florida are the exceptions.  However, none of these teams are nearly as far from “Big East Heartland” as TCU.  TCU joins Depaul as the only other Big East team in the Central Time zone, and joins South Florida as the only other Big East team located below the state of Kentucky.  TCU is the farthest outlier geographically, which will certainly affect sports besides basketball and football in terms of transportation.  It is interesting to note; however, that TCU is actually less of an outlier now than it was during its time in the Mountain West.  While in the Mountain West, TCU was the only team in the Central time zone, and more than half of the teams in the conference were 2 time zones away, in the Pacific time zone.  Therefore, long distance traveling will not be new for TCU athletes, but will certainly affect scheduling for the Big East, which hasn’t had to deal with a school located so far from the rest of the Big East schools.

In terms of competition in athletics, TCU will bring an unique presence to the conference.  In basketball, TCU will struggle in a conference that has been the best in college basketball in recent years.  In baseball, TCU will dominate, and will fight with Louisville for conference supremacy most years.  In football, TCU will finally get a bit of a test in conference play.  It will be very exciting to see how TCU will fare against West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and others in the Big East.  In the same vein, it will be exciting to see the impact TCU will have on the conference on the whole, and if recruiting, quality of play, and general excitement around the conference will change with the addition of the program.

TCU brings a new era and a new opportunity to the Big East with the change in affiliation.  Big East football is thankful for the opportunity given by TCU, and TCU is thankful for the opportunity given by the Big East.

NCAA Tournament Round 2: What We Learned

After the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, which ended today, we learned that the Big 10 is a darn good conference.  The Big 10 leads all conferences with 3 teams in the Sweet 16; including Purdue, which is missing Robbie Hummel, and Michigan State, who lost Kalin Lucas for the rest of the season halfway through the Maryland game today.  The Big 10 is not a second tier conference below conferences like the Big East and Big XII anymore.

We learned that the Big East is not as good as we originally thought.  Although I have been pushing the power of the conference all year, I must admit that the Big East teams’ performance in the NCAA tournament has been less than impressive at times.  All that remains from the Big East are the top two teams, Syracuse and West Virginia.  However, with 2 teams remaining, the Big East is tied with the Big XII and SEC for 2nd in that catagory, trailing only the Big 10.  The conference still has power at the top, and both these teams have the opportunity to advance to the National Championship.  However, the Big East is not by far the best conference in basketball as was proposed throughout the season.  Instead, conferences like the Big 10 and Big XII are very comparable to the Big East.

We learned that the Mountain West was overrated.  The conference went a combined 2-4 in the tournament, and advanced zero teams to the Sweet 16.  Considering that the Pac 10 and A-10 were ranked behind the Mountain West in RPI before the NCAA tournament, and both these conferences have a team in the Sweet 16 and better overall records in the tournament, the Mountain West is a conference which was overrated by national pundits this season.

We learned that nothing is a sure thing.  Between the upsets of Kansas, Villanova, and Georgetown (in the first round), people have lost their final four teams and their national champions in their brackets.  And who pulled these upsets?  Northern Iowa, Saint Mary’s, and Ohio, respectively.  The success of small conference teams like these, as well as Cornell, has been admirable and has made for some very exciting and unexpected upsets. 

Finally, we learned that Cornell is a really good team.  The ability for Cornell to perform so well offensively against 2 great defensive teams in Temple and Wisconsin is scary for #1 seed Kentucky, who the Big Red will face in the Regional Semifinal.

NCAA Tournament Round 1: What We Learned

We learned that this is the year of the upset.  Only 2 years after the majority of higher seeds won and all four #1 seeds made the Final Four, there were 8 wins by double digit seeds in this year’s first round.

We learned that the Pac-10 was stronger at the top than we all thought.  Cal and Washington both won their games in which they were underdogs, and put the conference at a perfect 2-0 mark in the first round.

We learned that the Big East isn’t as dominant as we all thought.  The Big East went 4-4 and lost every one of its seeds above a 3, and lost a 3 seed itself in Georgetown.  Most Big East teams seemed to come out flat, make a late run, and either win at the very end or come just short.

We learned that the Atlantic 10 finally came down to Earth.  Losses by Temple and Richmond as favorites over automatic qualifiers lessened the supposed impact made by the Atlantic 10 on the college basketball landscape this year.  Xavier held the conference up with a win over Minnesota.

We learned that slow, burn style, controlled offenses can backfire on teams.  These slow styles prevent more talented teams from putting their opponents away early, and allows these teams to stay in the game for much too long, and if the team is behind, doesn’t allow them to efficiently come back in the game.  Georgetown and Notre Dame learned these lessons the hard way, and Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue came very close to incurring the same fate.

Finally, we learned (if we didn’t already know) that the NCAA tournament first round is the greatest spectacle in college sports, and spans the 2 best days of the entire year, followed only by Saturday and Sunday in the 2nd round.

What Teams Need to do during Championship Week

Entering Championship Week, the bubble includes teams that need to still win some games over quality teams in order to ensure an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament.  Here are some of the most prominent bubble teams and what they need to do to get a bid (obviously some bids will be determined by performance of other teams in other conference tournaments):

ACC:

Wake Forest–Needs 3 wins.  Could be a win today against Clemson and 2 in the ACC tournament, or a loss today and 3 in the ACC tournament.  However, after going on a 4 game slide, the Demon Deacons now have a good deal of work to do before it can ensure a bid into the NCAA tournament.

Florida State–The Noles are in the mix even with an opening round loss in the ACC tournament, and 1 win would almost ensure a bid.  2 wins would make Florida State a lock.

Georgia Tech–With an 8-9 record since January 5th, the Yellow Jackets have a lot of work to do.  The team needs at least a trip to the semifinals to put itself on the back edge of the bubble on Selection Sunday.  A finals appearance would put the Jackets in the mix, and a conference championship is the only thing that will ensure Georgia Tech a bid.

Virginia Tech–1 win will put the Hokies squarely on the bubble, 2 wins should put the team in, and 0 wins will keep the team on the bubble, but would severely hurt the Hokies’ chances for an at-large bid.

Big XII:

Top 7 teams are in, bottom 5 teams have no chance at an at-large bid and need to win the conference tournament to get a bid.

Big East:

Marquette–LOCK

Louisville–LOCK

Notre Dame–LOCK

Connecticut–2 games to put the Huskies in the mix, 3 to be a lock (3rd win would be over Villanova, giving them another win over a RPI Top 25 team).

Seton Hall–Although I disagree with the treatment of Seton Hall, because I think they should only need 1 win to get in, the Pirates need at least 2, but most likely 3 to be in the mix for a bid (3rd win would be over Pitt).  A trip to the finals would make the Pirates a lock for the tournament.

Cincinnati–needs to win the Big East Tournament, and has no chance for an at-large bid.

Big 10:

Illinois–Needs 2 wins, which would give the Illini 20 wins and 2 more wins over ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Ohio State).  Under 2 wins may not be enough to put the Illini in, as that 2nd win over Ohio State is what would put the team over the top.

Pac-10:

Washington/Arizona State–These teams are on a collision course to play in the semifinals of the Pac-10 tournament as the 3 seed and 2 seed, respectively.  The winner of this game becomes a lock for an at-large bid, and the loser will most likely be eliminated from tournament contention.

California–1 win in the Pac 10 tournament and the Bears are in as a lock.  Even with a loss, the Bears are still in the mix for an at-large bid. 

Every other teams needs to win the Pac 10 tournament, and has no chance for an at-large bid.

SEC:

Florida–The Gators need 1 win to put themselves in the mix, but would like to get 2 wins, because the team would play bubble foe Mississippi State in the 2nd game.  A win by Mississippi State over Florida would raise eyebrows with the committee, and may result in the Bulldogs being picked over Florida for the NCAA tournament depending on Miss St.’s performance after a win over Florida.

Ole Miss–1 win should do the job because the team’s first game will most likely to be played against Tennessee.  This win would give the Rebels a much needed quality win over a ranked team.  With a loss the Rebels are out.

Mississippi State–The Bulldogs need to win 2 games at least (which would advance the team to the finals).  Depending upon the play of other teams, Mississippi State may need to win the SEC tournament to earn an automatic bid.

Mountain West:

UNLV–1 win will put the Runnin Rebels in the mix, and 2 wins (meaning most likely a win over BYU), will make UNLV a lock.  A loss would eliminate UNLV.

San Diego State–1 win will put the Aztecs in the mix, but the team could really use a quality win in its 2nd game against New Mexico in order to ensure a bid.  Like UNLV, a loss will put the Aztecs out of contention. 

Other than BYU and New Mexico, which are locks, every other team needs to win the conference tournament and can not earn an at-large bid.

Atlantic 10:

Rhode Island/Dayton/Saint Louis/Everyone else—Need to win the A-10 tournament, and can not do enough with the little time and opportunities remaining to earn an at-large bid.  Rhode Island and Dayton fell out of the race towards the end of the season.  Saint Louis didn’t do enough early, and their late season success isn’t enough to make up for what they didn’t do in the nonconference.

Other Conferences:

UTEP–LOCK

Utah State–needs to win the WAC tournament, as the Aggies’ schedule strength severely hurts their at-large chances.

Old Dominion–LOCK (have advanced to the CAA conference championship, and even with a loss they are in)

UAB–Needs to win the Conference USA tournament

Saint Mary’s–Needs to either beat Gonzaga or win the WCC tournament, the Gaels resume hasn’t been strong enough to include in the NCAA tournament without one or both of these situations occurring

Memphis– Most likely needs to win the Conference USA tournament, but a championship game loss to UTEP may put the Tigers in the mix on Selection Sunday.

Atlantic 10 Power Rankings

The A-10 is a conference that has gotten a lot of praise and notoriety recently from national pundits, such as Joe Lunardi.  Many of you know my thoughts on the A-10 from recent posts (See yesterday’s blog, “Bracketology,” for an interesting take on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology with regards to the A-10); however, I am by no means trying to say that the A-10 is not a great conference.  I think it is a talented conference at the top that deserves 3, maybe 4 teams in the NCAA tournament this year.  I think that it is the 6th best conference in the country this year, and better than the Pac-10, one of the traditional Power 6.  Therefore, below I have provided my power rankings for the Atlantic 10.

1. Temple-Although the Owls are tied for 3rd in the A-10, they are still the most explosive and talented team in the conference.  Prided upon active defense and timely shooting, Temple has hoisted itself into the Top 25 rankings this season with impressive performances by Juan Fernandez, Lavoy Allen, and Ryan Brooks.  Temple is 19-5 with a big win over rival Villanova, but has struggled recently with losses to Charlotte and Richmond by double digits in the past 2 weeks.  The Owls will still be a difficult team to beat come March if the offense can step up, but the offense hasn’t been consistent this year.

2. Richmond- The Spiders are the hottest team in the A-10 right now, with consecutive big victories over Temple and Rhode Island, and are on a 5 game winning steak and a 7-1 recent stretch.  Led by Kevin Anderson, David Gonzalvez, and Justin Harper, who are all averaging above 1o points, the Spiders have an impressive out of conference resume, including wins over Mississippi State, Missouri, and Florida.  It is a strong non-conference schedule like this that warrants an NCAA tournament bid, which is why in yesterday’s blog I placed Richmond over teams like Charlotte and Dayton, who have very similar resumes.  In conference play, Richmond is caught in the log jam of the top 7 teams in conference, which are all within 1 game in the loss column.  However, it is Richmond’s non conference success that separates it from the rest of the teams.

3. Xavier- The Musketeers have a 16-7 record on the year, but are coming off a terrible 25 point loss to Dayton.  It is difficult to keep Xavier at 3rd in the A-10 after this type of loss, but this loss was the team’s first true terrible loss of the season.  Xavier has lost to Wake Forest, Kansas State, Baylor, Butler, Marquette, and Temple before losing by 25 at Dayton.  Led primarily by Jordan Crawford, Xavier is an explosive team that can assert itself offensively at almost any point.  However, Xavier at times needs a second scorer and needs Jordan Crawford to do less.  Too much reliance on him could cause problems in March, when he will be facing talented defenders each game.

4. Rhode Island- The Rams have a 19-4 record, tops in the conference.  So why is the team ranked 4th in the A-10?  The fact is Rhode Island’s only half respectable out of conference win on the year is Oklahoma State, and just last week the team beat Dayton for its lone decent win in conference.  Therefore, Rhode Island is a classic case of a team that didn’t schedule well out of conference, posted a good record, but then had no meat within the conference to strengthen its resume.  Rhode Island is a tournament team at this point in my book, but is still not a top team in the A-10. 

5. Dayton- The Flyers have seemed to have found a second wind recently.  After starting the season in the Top 25, playing a weak conference schedule barring a tournament in Puerto Rico, and losing 3 of its first 6 conference games, Dayton has rebounded in the past 3 games convincingly to put itself back into the bubble picture.  In the past 2 games specifically, Dayton has beaten Xavier and Charlotte by 25 and 28 respectively at home.  Dayton now has a 17-6 record and also finds itself in the log jam at the top of the A-10 standings, which has 7 teams within 1 game in the loss column.  The difference between a team like Dayton and a team like Richmond is the out of conference schedule.  Dayton, other than the Puerto Rico tournament, where the Flyers went 1-2, did not play any good teams out of conference, which is why the team finds itself 5 in my rankings.

6. Charlotte- The 49ers are a team that is difficult to understand.  With a 19-6 record and an 8-2 record in conference, Charlotte tied for the lead in the A-10 right now.  The thing that separates Charlotte from the teams above is its inconsistency and inability to stay competitive in games at times.  Charlotte has lost 5 of its 6 games by double figures, and the only game it lost by less than double figures was by 9 points to Georgia Tech.  These blowout losses include a 42 point loss to Duke, a 33 point loss to Old Dominion, a 17 point loss to Tennessee, a 12 point loss to Xavier, and tonight, a 28 point loss to Dayton.  These performances are unacceptable for a team who is looking to go to the NCAA tournament, and one cannot tell me that the 7th best team in the Big East isn’t good enough to put up better fights in games than Charlotte has.  Charlotte’s one decent out of conference win was against Louisville, who at the time was completely out of sorts as a team and didn’t look like it could win a game at the time.  Last week, the 49ers won their lone impressive conference game against Temple.  The resume simply isn’t there yet for Charlotte.

7. St. Louis- St. Louis has been the surprise team in the A-10 this year.  A perennial bottomfeeder in the conference, the Billikins now find themselves with a 15-8 record and a 6-3 record in conference, also locked at the low end of the jam at the top of the conference which has 7 teams within 1 game in the loss column.  Although the Billikens are not a contender for the NCAA tournament at this point, with the team’s lone impressive win over Richmond, I applaud the team’s efforts this year to put themselves in the race in the A-10.

8. Duquesne

9. La Salle

10. St. Joseph’s

11. George Washington

12. St. Bonaventure

13. Massachusetts

14. Fordham

Bracketology

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I need to assert how foolish Joe Lunardi has been in his bracketology over the past few weeks.  For those who think that I shouldn’t be criticizing Lunardi because of his past success with regards to correctly picking the teams who make the tournament, please realize that he has NEVER picked the teams correctly halfway through the season.  There is NO way right now to predict or assume what the NCAA committee is considering at this point, especially because the committee isn’t even in session consistently at this point in the season.  Therefore, I have every right to criticize his bracketology because there is no reason to assume he knows who the committee would pick if it were to convene right now.

This week was more of the same from previous weeks in terms of Lunardi’s bracketology (See 1/25/10 “Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology Miscues).  This week, however, Joe Lunardi’s bracketology has become even more one-sided towards the small conference teams (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology).  He put 6 A-10 teams in the tournament.  That’s right, 6.  Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, Charlotte, and Rhode Island.  Even though the highest A-10 seed is Temple at 5, and the rest of the teams are from 7-12 seeds, the fact that 6 A-10 teams are in the tournament is a slap in the face for the rest of college basketball. 

Here is one of my problems.  Temple lost 2 games in 2 weeks, to Charlotte and Richmond, and moved only from a 4 seed to a 5 seed in the tournament.  While I realize that a lot of other teams have lost in the stretch, as it has been a difficult 2 weeks for ranked teams, Temple should have moved down to a 6 seed at least.  Charlotte and Richmond are 2 of the most important games of Temple’s conference schedule, and to lose these games in succession, while also being tied for 3rd place in the A-10 with Richmond and Rhode Island, is not very impressive.  Temple’s last 2 losses were by double digits, and 3 of Temple’s 5 losses have come to non-ranked teams, with another loss coming by 32 points against Kansas.  The Owls’ best win was against Villanova, and Nova was its only victory over a ranked team.  Doesn’t sound anything like a 5 seed resume to me.

On a conference scale, the fact that Lunardi has 6 A-10 teams in the tournament is completely ridiculous.  The conference has 14 teams, and 7 of them are simply atrocious.  Other than the top 7 teams in the conference, the best record among the rest is George Washington with a 12-10 record.  However, GW has a pitiful 2-7 conference record, exemplifying their obviously weak non-conference schedule.  The next best record among the bottom 7 is Duquesne, with a 12-11 record and a 3-6 conference record.  The rest of the teams are under .500.  It really shows who these top 6 teams are beating every week in conference.  For one, the A-10 isn’t even a major conference.  Second, the bottom of the A-10 is so poor that these teams can not even attempt to challenge the top teams.  Therefore, when the top 6 teams in the A-10 have respectable, but not great, non-conference schedules, and then run through conference play with more than half of their games against absolutely terrible teams, it is quite obvious that these teams will have impressive records on the surface.  However, ESPN is specifically PAYING Joe Lunardi to look past the fluff of a decent non-conference schedule and a good record, and he has not done so to this point.

Let’s look specifically at Xavier.  The Musketeers have 7 losses on the season and are a 7 seed in the tournament.  Compare this record to the records of Florida State and Ole Miss, who both have 17-6 records out of the ACC and SEC, respectively.  One would expect teams from major conferences with better records to be seeded higher than a team from a mid-major conference with a worse record, right? It sounds ridiculous, but this is not the case according to Lunardi.  Florida State and Ole Miss are seeded 8th and 9th respectively in the Midwest region.  With 5 losses in the non-conference and the only big non-conference win against Cincinnati, who isn’t even predicted to be a tournament team right now, one cannot even give the argument that Xavier earned its seed because of its non-conference performance.  Xavier’s 7 seed is simply an example of what happens when the most prominent bracketology expect completely overrates an entire conference.

The other 4 teams from the A-10 that made the tournament were Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Charlotte.  At absolute most, 2 of these teams should go to the tournament.  Dayton should not go, because the Flyers have a 16-6 record, with the only true good wins coming against Georgia Tech very early in the season, and a recent big win against Xavier.  They still have not come up with a marquee win like Temple has against Villanova, and do not have a stellar record at this point to rest upon.  Charlotte should also not be in the tournament, because although the 49ers have an 8-1 record in conference, they have a 18-5 record overall with complete drubbings by Duke, Tennessee, Xavier, and Old Dominion.  Their lone good wins were against Lousiville, which was very early when the Cardinals were playing like they wanted to lose, and against Temple recently, who has gone on a 2 game losing streak that has consisted of no offense by the Owls.  Therefore, the 49ers do have a good record, but cannot be considered a tournament team at this point because of their lack of big wins and the prevalence and magnitude of their big losses.  Finally, it can be argued that Richmond does not even deserve a bid to the tournament.  Richmond has an 18-6 record, with impressive wins over Missouri, Mississippi State, Florida, and recently Temple.  However, the Spiders have had several bad losses, such as against Saint Louis, South Carolina, VCU, and William and Mary.  Richmond has a better resume than Charlotte and Dayton because of its big wins, however, and should be a bubble team at this point.  Based upon this thorough evaluation based upon records, big wins, and big losses, I have determined that the A-10 rightly deserves 3, potentially 4 teams in the tournament (Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, and maybe Richmond).

Who should replace these A-10 mid-major teams?  Exactly who Joe Lunardi snubbed in his first four out.  Marquette, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and South Florida were all left out by Lunardi because he put all these mid-majors into the tournament, including Old Dominion, which I did not even mention above.  If these four mid-majors that I mentioned were left out, each of these teams above would make the tournament.  There are no teams in the country that will play tougher conference schedules than Big East teams, and to this point they have not been compensated for their efforts in conference.  It is impressive when a team like Marquette narrowly loses to teams such as Villanova, Syracuse, and West Virginia with wins over Georgetown and Xavier, while still having more opportunities more big wins.  It is more impressive than when a team like Richmond loses to Saint Louis and VCU, with wins over Mizzou and Florida, and almost no opportunities remaining for a big win on the national scale.  Couple that with the fact that Richmond ONLY has 2 less losses than Marquette, in the A-10, and it really makes no sense that Richmond gets in the tournament over Marquette.  Therefore, the fact that many more losses are built in to Big East teams’ schedules, or almost any big conference team’s schedule, needs to be considered when comparing the records of these teams with mid-major’s records. 

Until next time, Joe Lunardi, do your work, look past the records, and evaluate the big wins and losses more thoroughly before you post your next bracketology next Monday.

The Big East is the Premier College Basketball Conference

Joe Lunardi in his Bracketology this week said that ”it might be argued the Big XII is the country’s No. 1 league this season.”  In addition (and I will not release names), some of my peers have indicated to me that they believe that conferences other than the Big East were the best in college basketball.  For the many reasons listed below, I believe the Big East is the premier college basketball conference.

First, lets look at the number of NCAA tournament bids each conference has in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology.  The Big East has 7, along with the Big XII, the ACC has 6, the Atlantic 10 has 5, along with the SEC, and the Big 10 has 4.  This statistic in itself eliminates the Big 10, SEC, and Atlantic 10, because these conferences are not deep enough to be considered the best.

Second, lets look at the seeds the teams from each conference are projected to have in Lunardi’s bracketology.  The Big East teams’ seeds are 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 11, and 12.  Big XII teams: 1, 3, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10.  ACC teams: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 11.  Although I have already eliminated these conferences, to humor some haters, the A-10 teams:  4, 7, 9, 9, and 10; the SEC teams: 1, 4, 9, 10, 11; and the Big 10 teams: 2, 2, 5, 5.  The Big East is the only conference to have its top 4 teams as either 1 or 2 seeds.  The next best conference is the Big 10, which has its top (and only) 4 teams as 5 seeds or lower.  However, Big 10 was eliminated from the discussion for not being deep enough as a conference.  Therefore, of the 3 conferences that I did not eliminate for lack of depth,  the Big XII is the 2nd best in this category, with its top 4 teams as 7 seeds or lower.  In fact, 3 of these top 4 teams are from 3 seeds to 7 seeds, meaning that only 1 team from the Big XII is either a 1 or 2 seed, as opposed to the Big East’s 4 teams in this category.  In addition, the top ACC team is a 3 seed, which would be 5th best in the Big East.

If these arguments do not convince you of the Big East superiority, consider this.  Some may argue that 4 teams is not enough to be called a deep conference, and therefore the Big East can not be called the best simply by its top 4 teams.  Personally, I believe that if a conference has 4 of the top 7 teams in the country (according to both the AP Poll and my Top 25), then it is the best conference.  However, to further prove my point about the depth of the Big East, consider the conferences as a whole.  7 teams from the Big East were projected to make the tournament, tied for the lead only with the Big XII.  In addition, 3 of the first 4 teams projected out of the tournament according to Joe Lunardi were Big East teams.  No Big XII teams were in the first four out.  Therefore, the Big East had 10 potential NCAA tournament teams this week, far more than those of any other conference.

One final point of argument.  The Big East has 11 teams (that is right, 11) in the RPI Top 60.  RPI is a system of computerized rankings that incorporates both quality of wins and losses and schedule strength.  Therefore, 18.3% of the top 60 teams in all of college basketball are from the Big East, while 4 teams are in the RPI Top 6.  The conference with the next most teams in the RPI Top 60 is the Big XII with 8, then the ACC and Atlantic 10 with 6.  Therefore, the Big East has 3 more teams in the RPI Top 60 than any other conference, and 5 more than the 3rd best conference.  In addition, the most teams a conference other than the Big East has in the RPI Top 10 is 2, compared to the Big East’s 4 in the top 6.

The Big East is the best conference in college basketball.  It is tied with the Big XII for the most teams projected to make the NCAA tournament, it has more teams with an opportunity to make the tournament than any other conference, and it has lower projected seeds for its teams than any other conference, a lot lower.  The Big East has 4 of the top 7 teams in both the AP Poll and my Top 25, and has 4 of the top 6 teams in RPI.  Finally, the Big East has 11 teams in the RPI top 60, 3 more than any other conference and 5 more than the 3rd best conference.  All the evidence presents quite clearly that the Big East is by far the best conference in college basketball.

Non-Major Conference College Basketball Top 10

Because of the interest and controversy that resulted from yesterday’s blog, today I am going to give my Top 10 of Non-Major Conference Teams (meaning teams from outside the ACC, Big East, Big XII, Big 10, SEC, and Pac-10). 

1. Temple- Yes, sorry Cougar and Bulldog fans, but Temple at this point is the best team from outside the 6 major conferences.  With a 17-3 record and impressive wins over Villanova, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall, the Owls have steadily been returning to the prominence of the 1990s under head coach Fran Dunphy.  Built around solid, suffocating defense and hitting timely shots, Temple is a team that no one wants to play.  With a heartbreaking 1 point loss to Georgetown and a 6 point loss in the Philly Hoop Group Classic against St. Johns, Temple has fought hard in each of its games (except for against Kansas), while playing a difficult out of conference schedule as always.  Temple looks to be an Elite 8 quality team at this point.

2. BYU- The Cougars are an impressive 20-1 on the season, with wins over Nebraska, UNLV, and upstart UTEP.  Overall, the Cougars do not have great schedule strength, but are the best team in the Mountain West and are ranked 12th in my most recent poll (1/25/10).  BYU looks to be a team that will escape the 1st round of the tournament, but will not advance far.

3. Gonzaga- This is the one team for which I never seem to understand the hype.  The Bulldogs dominate the WCC, play a few decent out of conference games, and are ranked in the top 10 in the Coaches Poll.  Not the way I see it.  Gonzaga is certainly not as good of a team as Temple, and is very comparable to BYU, but is not a top 10 team in the country.  The Bulldogs have a few decent wins, such as wins over Wisconsin and Cincinnati, and post a 16-3 record.  The three losses were to Michigan State, Wake Forest, and Duke, by 33 points.  Therefore, the Bulldogs belong on this list because of their decent resume and respectable losses, but do not deserve to be a top 10 team in the country.

4. Xavier- The Musketeers have been the premier Atlantic 10 throughout the past decade.  This year, Sean Miller has moved on to coach at Arizona, and Chris Mack has taken over the program.  Xavier has a 13-6 record, but with many impressive losses in a heavy out of conference schedule, including Baylor, Marquette, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Butler, and Temple.  Impressive wins include Cincinnati, Dayton, and Rhode Island.

5. UNLV- The Runnin Rebels again look to surprise the country with an upstart and running style offense.  With a 16-4 record, UNLV has had several impressive wins, including Louisville and New Mexico.  Although the Rebs only have a 4-2 record in conference, their losses were to BYU and Utah, and their other 2 losses were to USC and Kansas State. 

6. Cornell- The lone representative on this list from the Ivy League, the Big Red posts a 16-3 record, with respectable losses to Seton Hall, Syracuse, and Kansas.  Cornell does not have many big wins, but the team’s ability to hang with good teams and consistently hit the 3 point shot will make this team difficult to handle come tournament time.

7. Rhode Island- The 3rd A-10 representative on this list, Rhode Island posts a 16-3 record with their only losses coming against VCU, Temple, and Xavier.  URI has posted impressive wins over Oklahoma State, Boston College, and Providence, and is playing Dayton tonight.

8. UAB- The Blazers are the lone representative from Conference USA on this list, and looks to change the culture in the conference after Memphis has dominated for years.  UAB is 17-2 and is ranked 25th in the AP Poll.

9. New Mexico- The Lobos post an 18-3 record, but really have no true impressive wins, and have lost some very unimpressive games this year.

10. Northern Iowa- Northern Iowa seems to be everyone’s cinderella this year, but for reasons I can’t really understand.  Although UNI posts a 17-2 record, the team has no good wins and lost to 8-11 Depaul and Wichita State.  Not that impressive, but nonetheless is ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll.

Some other teams that did not make the cut:

Old Dominion

Dayton

Siena

Saint Mary’s

Richmond

UTEP

Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology Miscues

The updated bracketology was released today by ESPN college basketball anlayst Joe Lunardi (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology).  After reviewing his NCAA tournament picks, I was left feeling somewhat disappointed with the process by which he chose his teams to make the tournament.  At the top he seemed to have things correct: Kentucky, Kansas, Villanova, and Syracuse all receiving #1 seeds.  The Big East had 7 teams get in, with 6 of these teams earning a 5 seed or lower.  The ACC  and Big XII also had 7 teams in for a three way tie for the most teams qualified.  My problem stems from the conferences lower on the list.  The conference with the next highest amount of teams in Lunardi’s bracketology is…the A-10?  The A-10 is a great conference, no question (See “What is the Sixth Best College Basketball Conference,” 12/20/09), but is it really warranted to be tied with the SEC for 4th in terms of teams qualifying for the tournament from said conference?  Although the highest A-10 ranked team is a 4 seed, the rest of the teams are given anywhere from 8-12 seeds, and the SEC has each of its teams as 8 seeds or lower, it still is a problem in my eyes that these A-10 teams are getting in off the bubble instead of teams from bigger conferences that may have more losses.

I understand what Joe Lunardi is thinking.  This year in college basketball, there seem to be so many losses by what appeared to be such great teams from major conferences initially, that many smaller conference teams are moving up in the rankings.  One good example is Northern Iowa.  After a loss this week to Wichita State, an 8 point loss earlier in the year to  8-11 Depaul, and exactly 0 wins against ranked teams, with the best win against Boston College, the Panthers still remained ranked in the AP Poll.  In addition, BYU, who is 20-1 with a loss to Utah State and whose biggest win of the season was against Big XII bottomfeeder Nebraska, is ranked 12th in the AP Poll.

With these small teams from mid-major conferences earning high rankings in the AP Poll, Joe Lunardi appears to be giving these teams from small conferences too much credit.  Consider his final four teams in; Cincinnati, Richmond, William and Mary, and Arizona State.  His first four out are Florida, Seton Hall, Charlotte, and Louisville.  My problem is that Richmond and William and Mary are ahead of Florida, Seton Hall, and Louisville.  In addition, I find it insulting to major conference teams that Charlotte is even in the NCAA tournament discussion.  Let me start with the resumes of Richmond and William and Mary.  Richmond is 15-6, very vanilla, with losses to VCU, Charlotte, and Saint Louis, among others, with only 1 win over a projected NCAA tournament team.  William and Mary is 14-5 and has a slightly more impressive resume than Richmond.  With wins over Maryland, Wake Forest, and Richmond itself, the Tribe has several impressive wins on which to lean come Selection Sunday.  However, with a current 2 game losing streak consisting of unimpressive consecutive losses to VCU and Old Dominion, as well as losses to UNC Wilmington and Harvard, and an overtime win against Delaware, the Tribe does not have a resume suitable for the NCAA tournament. 

Consider the resumes of Louisville and Seton Hall, who are currently part of Lunardi’s first four out.  Louisville has a 12-7 record.  Yes, it is slightly worse than both William and Mary and Richmond, but consider the differences in schedule strength.  Louisville has an infinitly more difficult schedule than these teams, including games against Kentucky, Villanova, and Pittsburgh to this point, with many more difficult games to come.  William and Mary and Richmond are lucky if they play one team of the caliber of those teams listed above.  In addition, Seton Hall has a 12-6 record, but has an even tougher schedule than Louisville.  The Pirates have lost to Temple, West Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, and Georgetown.  Wow. Now that is a schedule.  5 of Seton Hall’s 6 losses are to ranked teams, and all losses are to teams currently projected to make the NCAA tournament. In addition, Seton Hall has beaten Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Cincinnati.  With 2 wins over NCAA tournament teams and no bad losses (most of which were very close), the Pirates deserve a NCAA tournament bid much more than teams like William and Mary and Richmond.

Now let me examine Charlotte, which is with Louisville, Florida, and Seton Hall on the first four out list.  The 49ers are 14-5 this year, but their big wins, losses, and schedule strength are simply ridiculous.  The 49ers have a 42 point loss to Duke, a 33 point loss to Old Dominion, a 9 point loss to Georgia Tech, a 17 point loss to Tennessee, and a 12 point loss to Xavier.  If you are counting, that means a mid-major team with 5 losses before January has even ended, and an average point differential of -22.6 in losses.  The only noteworthy win for Charlotte was a win over Louisville, which occurred in the midst of a 1-3 stretch for Louisville, before the Cardinals completely turned around their season.  Therefore, the 49ers have 5 losses in a non-major conference and only 1 noteworthy win, although at this point Louisville isn’t even projected to be a tournament team.

These are just a few of the problems that I have with Joe Lunardi’s bracketology for this week.  However, my complaints stem from Lunardi’s attitude towards mid-major conferences.  Although there are some teams from mid-major conferences that deserve to be in the tournament, the fact that the Big 10 does not have as many teams projected in the tournament of the A-10 does is an example of why Lunardi’s bracketology is not acceptable to me as a college basketball analyst.

What is the sixth best college basketball conference?

It is a commonly held belief that the top six college basketball conferences are the six major conferences: Big East, ACC, Big 10, Big XII, SEC, and Pac-10.  However, there is one conference that has seemed to go under the radar over the past few years.  This conference consistently has solid teams at the top and gets 2-3 teams in the NCAA tournament each year.

This is the Atlantic 10 conference (A-10).  Teams such as Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and George Washington have had recent success on the national scale.  Considered by many to be a “mid-major,” the A-10 has consistently competed with power conferences.  Sean Miller, now the coach at Arizona, built the Xavier program to be a annual contender.  Fran Dunphy has led Temple to 2 straight A-10 titles and 2 subsequent NCAA tournament appearances.  Coach Dunphy hopes to return the program to the prominence it had under John Chaney.  Dayton has consistently provided quality teams with trouble, and won its opening round game last year against West Virginia of the Big East, which was supposedly the best conference of all time.  George Washington was ranked as high as 6th in the 2005-2006 season  and made three consecutive NCAA tournament appearances from 2004-2005 to 2006-2007.  St. Joseph’s was a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and reached the Elite 8 in the 2003-2004 season.  These are just a few recent highlights of the A-10′s success on the national stage.

This year, the A-10 looks to be as deep as ever.  There may not be the one dominant team, such as  Xavier recently and Temple in the 90s.  However, the conference has 4 potential NCAA tournament contenders, and 10 of the 14 teams appear to be solid this year.  Teams that most years are  bottomfeeders in the conference, such as Richmond and La Salle, are talented this year and have chances, with strong conference play, to make an NCAA tournament run.  Richmond beat #13 ranked Florida Saturday, December 19th and is 8-3 this season.

Another impressive win for the A-10 December 19th was UMass over Memphis.  In addition, Xavier lost by one on the road at Butler, which was decided by a controversial call at the end of regulation which prevented Xavier from having a last second attempt at the win.  The week before, Xavier beat Cincinnati in a rivalry game on the road.  That same week Temple beat third ranked Villanova in a classic Big 5 matchup.  These are only a few examples of A-10 victories over perennial big name schools. 

The A-10 doesn’t just schedule cupcake games during the non-conference; these teams try to schedule strong opponents to prove themselves in big games in front of the whole country.  Temple schedules one of the tougest non-conferences schedules in the country each year.  The rest of the conference follows Temple’s lead.  For example,  this year, Xavier’s non-conference schedule includes Marquette, Baylor, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Wake Forest, LSU, and Butler.  La Salle plays Villanova, Kansas, and Oklahoma State non-conference this year.  Dayton plays Georgia Tech, Villanova, and Kansas State. Finally, Temple plays Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Kansas in the non-conference.  The A-10 has shown that it can handle these types of non-conference schedules and is a viable conference, as 12 of 14 teams are over .500, and 11 of 14 teams are at least 2 games over .500.  The Atlantic 10 Conference is the sixth best conference in the country.

If the A-10 is the sixth best, which major conference is to be knocked from the sixth spot? The Pacific 10 Conference (Pac-10).  The Pac-10 includes classic college basketball powerhouses such as Arizona and UCLA.  However, these two teams currently own the two worst records in the Pac-10 this year.  The Pac-10 only has one ranked team, which is Washington, ranked 24th in the AP Poll.  The rest of the conference has been very inconsistent.  Washington and Washington State are the only two teams who have less than 3 losses.  The best team in the Pac-10 may be USC, who was abysmal in the beginning of the season, but defeated Tennessee Saturday to extend its win streak to three games.

Therefore, with the depth of the A-10 this year, and the lack of firepower in the Pac-10, the A-10 has become the sixth best conference in the country.  This change did not come out of nowhere, however.  The A-10 has steadily improved recently.  The conference now provides substantially competition, produces solid teams and programs, and draws recruits to these strong programs.  College basketball fans need to take another look at power and strength of the A-10.  While it may not be the Big East, it is the farthest thing from a mid-major.

Stay tuned tomorrow for my updated College Basketball Top 25 rankings.